Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover pending home sales dropping in every region with the West the worst, a housing starts miss, oil at a five-month high and a pirate ship house in Utah.

In this episode:

• Local check: Stanislaus County listings, pendings and closings up from yesterday (the MLS screen shown on air)

• Why compliance watches what we say about sellers helping buy down a rate, and why a disclosure makes it better

• Markets: bonds caught a flight to safety on AI jitters, and the 10-year was lower near 5.09% (CNBC, Oct 20, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)

• Oil: Brent hit a five-month high (CNBC, Oct 20, 2026), with December Brent about $111.10 (WSJ, Oct 20, 2026)

• AI debt worries and why a stock slide matters for housing: wealthier buyers paying cash don't worry about rates

• Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September and 11.3% from a year ago, down in all four regions. The West was the worst, down 9.2% on the month and 15.0% on the year (NAR, Oct 20, 2026: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-decreased-7-3-percent-in-september)

• NAR's Lawrence Yun: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." Mike's take: that also opens doors for buyers, with sellers doing what builders do

• Housing starts: 1,221,000 at a yearly pace in September, down 5.2% from August. Single-family starts 859,000, down 4.6%. Building permits 1,400,000, down 0.2% (U.S. Census Bureau, Oct 20, 2026: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html). Census says the monthly drop in starts is not statistically significant

• Is this 2008 again? Ed and Mike on inventory then and now, and why "never" and "always" are false statements

• Google's listing carousel and getting your listings in front of ChatGPT and Copilot through Bing Webmaster Tools

• Extra jerky: a house shaped like a pirate ship in Levan, Utah, nowhere near an ocean. Would you walk the plank?

• Community Corner on realestatejerky.com: UB40 at the Gallo Center, the El Concilio Job Fair, a junk journaling workshop in Lodi and the Brady House basement haunt in downtown Modesto

No cheerleading. No doom. Just the truth, with a little seasoning.

Watch live Mon to Fri on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube. More: www.edparcaut.com | @EdParcaut

Rates: rate figures were read on air. Ed read rates "like 7.40" and the 10-year at 5.10, from his screen during the show. For reference, 7.40% is Freddie Mac's 30-year survey average from last week (PMMS, Oct 15, 2026: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms). Daily rate index: Mortgage News Daily, Oct 20, 2026, https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates. Ed's opinion, not financial advice.

Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover builder confidence at a 14-year low, California's August sales, a Central Valley real estate fraud sentence and how agents can put a crew of AI bots to work.

In this episode:

• Local check: Stanislaus County at 863 active listings, 322 pending and 139 closed (the MLS screen shown on air)

• California in August: existing single-family home sales up 1.4% from a year ago and a statewide median price of $901,420, up 0.1% (C.A.R., Sept 16, 2026: https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/august2026sales)

• Japan's U.S. Treasury holdings fell $35.6 billion in August and China's fell $27.3 billion (U.S. Treasury TIC data, released Oct 16, 2026: https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html)

• AI stocks bounce back, and what the Fed odds look like for October 28 and beyond

• Builder confidence fell 3 points to 29 in October, the lowest since June 2012. 43% of builders cut prices, the average cut was 6%, and 65% used sales incentives (NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, Oct 19, 2026: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/10/builder-sentiment-falls-on-rising-rates)

• Sellers are negotiating. Don't offer list price just because it's listed there (Ed and Mike's opinion)

• Fraud watch: a former Delano man got 7 years and 10 months in federal prison for a $10 million fake real estate agent scheme in the Central Valley (IRS Criminal Investigation, Sept 28, 2026: https://www.irs.gov/compliance/criminal-investigation/central-valley-man-sentenced-to-more-than-7-years-in-prison-for-a-10-million-real-estate-fraud-scheme). Call your escrow or title officer at a number you already know before you wire money

• Extra jerky: a Pittsburgh fixer-upper listed at "$9,995" (as read on air by Ed)

No cheerleading. No doom. Just the truth, with a little seasoning.

Watch live Mon to Fri on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube. More: www.edparcaut.com | @EdParcaut

Rates: no mortgage rate figures were read on air. Ed's comment that rates were worse on the day is his read of morning pricing. Daily rate index: Mortgage News Daily, Oct 19, 2026, https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates. Ed's opinion, not financial advice.

Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover the local market, the California FAIR Plan increase, a state check on LA fire insurance payouts and what's on next week's calendar.

In this episode:

• Stanislaus County market: 122 closed transactions since October 1st, 858 listings and 328 pendings (Mike Kelly's local market numbers)

• Bonds and rates moved all over the place this week

• The California FAIR Plan increase took effect on the 15th, and why it hits hardest in high fire severity zones (Ed and Mike's discussion)

• California's DFPI ordered financial institutions to report data on insurance payouts to LA fire survivors and is looking into reports of delayed and denied payments (Ed, citing the DFPI order). Ed and Mike look back at 2008, WaMu and Countrywide

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke in Bangkok and said little about monetary policy

• Next week: the NAHB Market Index, housing starts and permits, pending home sales, mortgage applications and jobless claims

• Extra jerky: a historic church in Pennsylvania for sale with a graveyard of "more than 100 graves," asking "$225,000" (as read on air by Ed)

• Community Corner: things to do this weekend at realestatejerky.com

No cheerleading. No doom. Just the truth, with a little seasoning.

Watch live Mon to Fri on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube. More: www.edparcaut.com | @EdParcaut

Rates read on air from Mortgage News Daily, Oct 16, 2026. Ed's opinion, not financial advice.

Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover the California FAIR Plan rate hike that takes effect today and why sellers keep cutting prices.

In this episode:
• California FAIR Plan: an average 29.1% dwelling rate increase for more than 675,000 policyholders, starting today, October 15, on new and renewal policies. Those with higher wildfire risk can pay more, and some policyholders will pay less (California FAIR Plan statement on California Department of Insurance approval). Example: at 29.1%, a $3,000 premium would be about $3,873. Your rate will vary.
• Get the insurance quote before you fall in love with the house, and if you're selling, think about offering to cover a year or two of the buyer's insurance (Ed's opinion, not financial advice.)
• Stanislaus County in September: 320 price cuts and 18 price increases, almost 18 cuts for every increase, with active listings up 11% from August (Realtor.com data via FRED)
• Wholesale inflation: producer prices up 1.3% for the month, the biggest jump since March 2022, and up 6.3% over the year (BLS producer price index for September)
• Retail sales up 0.8% in September (Census Bureau advance estimate). Initial jobless claims at 199,000, up 1,000 from the week before, and continuing claims at 1.71 million (U.S. Department of Labor)
• The crash came in sales, not prices. Why the median price can drop while home values hold
• The median first-time buyer hit a record age of 40 (NAR 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers). Later in life, a reverse mortgage for purchase can be worth a look (Ed's opinion, not financial advice.) Reverse mortgages are for homeowners 62 and older. The home must be your primary residence, you must keep paying property taxes, insurance and upkeep, and the loan is due when you leave the home.
• Wire fraud warning: call your escrow or title officer at a number you already know before you wire any money (Ed's opinion, not financial advice.)

No cheerleading. No doom. Just the truth, with a little seasoning.
Watch live Mon to Fri on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube. More: www.edparcaut.com | @EdParcaut

Edward R. Parcaut, NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc, Real estate broker, California Department of Real Estate, NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans are subject to credit approval, underwriting guidelines and program availability. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly dig into the latest existing-home sales numbers (up 1.5% to a 3.99 million pace, per NAR via MBS Highway, with a $417,500 median, per NAR) and break down what that means if you're buying or selling right now.

In this episode:
• Local numbers: 77 closed sales in 13 days, 848 active listings, 345 pending
• National inventory down about 4,000 to 898,139. Median list price $435K, and roughly 43 of every 100 listings take a price cut
• Central Valley split: Stanislaus median down 4.9%, San Joaquin up 4.7%, Merced up 5.1% (C.A.R., August)
• Small business optimism slips to 97.9. ADP weekly hiring keeps climbing
• Michigan consumer sentiment falls to 46.3, the second lowest on record. The gap between people who own assets and people who don't keeps growing
• Ed on building an AI "team" to run his media and podcast work, and why paying for a real human still wins

No cheerleading. No doom. Just the truth, with a little seasoning.
Watch live Mon to Fri on Facebook, LinkedIn and YouTube. More: www.edparcaut.com | @EdParcaut

Ed Parcaut NMLS #235384, CA DRE #01077454. Lending For Living Inc real estate broker NMLS #855360, CA DRE #01907016. Equal Housing Opportunity. This is not a commitment to lend. NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/

Cover background: AI-generated (OpenAI); Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly are real photos.

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover Stanislaus County closings, next week's CPI and PPI reports, the 10-year Treasury, mortgage pricing, strong bond auctions, Iran comments, Prop 37 buyer-assistance concerns, FAIR Plan increases, Zillow Gone Wild, Community Corner events, and contractor referrals.

Stanislaus County reached 55 October closings after seven more properties closed. Mortgage pricing was worse by about 16 basis points while the 10-year Treasury sat near 5.26 and continued battling the 5.29 level.

Ed also explains why next week's inflation reports matter and why Prop 37 may mainly benefit new-home builders instead of the broader resale market.

A fast Real Estate Jerky Daily update with the usual bite.

Contact and Social Links:

🔗 **Follow us:**
- **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky)
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- **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com)

🔗 Ed Parcaut:

www.edparcaut.com
- Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut)
- LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut)

Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate!

#RealEstateJerkyDaily #RealEstateJerky #EdParcaut #MikeKelly #MortgageRates #TenYearTreasury #CPI #PPI #BondMarket #MortgagePricing #Prop37 #FAIRPlan #StanislausCountyRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #ZillowGoneWild #CommunityCorner #RiverbankCheeseAndWine #ModestoLatinMusic #RealEstateJerkyCom #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #MarketNewsWithTeeth

Ed Parcaut and Mike Kelly cover Stanislaus County housing numbers, mortgage-rate pressure, the 10-year Treasury, oil and Strait of Hormuz headlines, Gulf production shutdowns, jobless claims, the California FAIR Plan increase, a viral Detroit listing, lender stress, Community Corner events, and sponsor opportunities.

Stanislaus County added 10 closings, with 827 active listings and 344 pending sales. Mortgage pricing worsened by about 20 basis points as the 10-year Treasury sat around 5.30.

Ed also explains why oil remains the biggest market problem, with tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Tropical Storm Isis shutting down part of U.S. Gulf production.

A fast Real Estate Jerky Daily update with the usual bite.

Contact and Social Links:

🔗 **Follow us:**
- **Facebook:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://facebook.com/RealEstateJerky)
- **Instagram:** [@RealEstateJerky](https://instagram.com/RealEstateJerky)
- **Website:** [Real Estate Jerky](https://realestatejerky.com)

🔗 Ed Parcaut:

www.edparcaut.com
- Twitter: [@EdParcaut](https://twitter.com/EdParcaut)
- LinkedIn: [Ed Parcaut](https://www.linkedin.com/in/edparcaut)

Catch every episode for sharp insight and real talk about what matters now in real estate!

#RealEstateJerkyDaily #RealEstateJerky #EdParcaut #MikeKelly #MortgageRates #TenYearTreasury #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #GulfProduction #JoblessClaims #FAIRPlan #StanislausCountyRealEstate #ModestoRealEstate #CentralValleyRealEstate #MortgageLenders #DetroitRealEstate #CommunityCorner #RealEstateJerkyCom #HousingMarketUpdate #RealEstatePodcast #MortgagePodcast #MarketNewsWithTeeth