Prediction Markets Captivated by Biden 2024 Uncertainty, Possible Felony Charges for Trump

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Prediction Markets Captivated by Biden 2024 Uncertainty, Possible Felony Charges for Trump

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Prediction markets have been bustling over the last 48 hours, fueled by both political uncertainty and a few unexpected developments in global events. On Polymarket, the current top market by volume is the one asking whether Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee in 2024. It has traded over 2.3 million dollars in the past week alone. As of last night, the market is giving Biden a 63 percent chance, which is down from 71 percent just two days ago. That sharp drop has caught the attention of a lot of seasoned traders, especially in light of increasing health speculation and talk of a possible open convention. What’s even more surprising is that Gavin Newsom saw a modest jump from seven percent to nearly eleven percent, while Michelle Obama, who has repeatedly denied interest, moved from two percent to six percent, suggesting traders are watching for a dark horse.

On PredictIt, one of the most active markets is asking whether Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election. The market briefly dipped to 45 cents on a 'yes' outcome after the latest delay in the Georgia trial, but it has rebounded back to 53 cents after the judge in the Florida documents case unexpectedly denied the latest defense motion to dismiss. Traders seem to believe at least one conviction is plausible before November, although trial delays continue to inject uncertainty. There's been particular focus on the New York hush money case, with volume surging following reports of a surprise witness scheduled for this Friday.

Metaculus, which operates differently by aggregating forecasts from a community of superforecasters, is showing something interesting in the geopolitical realm. Their community estimate for Russia controlling more Ukrainian territory by the end of 2024 jumped from 39 to 47 percent within 24 hours. That shift followed recent reports from both Reuters and Ukrainian sources suggesting logistical issues are hampering Ukraine’s counteroffensive. It’s a subtle but significant jump for a market that usually moves gradually, pointing to a reevaluation of battlefield momentum.

The most interesting shift this week, though, might be in the entertainment sector. On Polymarket, the question of whether Taylor Swift will appear at an NFL game before the regular season ends surged after photos emerged of her private jet landing near Kansas City. The market price for yes leaped from 58 to 82 cents in one afternoon. While some might dismiss these as novelty markets, the speed and scale of that rally highlight how celebrity activity continues to captivate traders and skew attention from traditional subjects.

One emerging trend I’ve noticed is how increasingly correlated certain political markets are becoming. The Biden nomination probabilities are now tightly linked with Senate control projections. As Biden’s numbers dip, the Democrat odds of holding the Senate also fall, suggesting traders view leadership stability as directly impacting down-ballot races. This represents a new layer of interconnectedness that prediction markets may increasingly reflect moving forward.

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