In this episode, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith and Shannon Phillips discuss:

• Projects of national interest and how new polling reveals what Canadians really think about building faster while maintaining environmental and Indigenous safeguards

• Why Bill C-5 could reshape how Canada approves major infrastructure projects

• The shifting dynamics between Carney’s government, Conservative premiers, and public expectations around trade-offs, consultation, and speed

• Trump’s latest trade war escalation, what it means for Canada, the provinces, and global leverage

• Section 107 and the Notwithstanding Clause: how back-to-work powers are reshaping Canada’s labour relations landscape

• “Around the Horn” the key political, economic, and social developments to watch across Canada
  

Key Takeaways

• PHILLIPS: Canadians want it all; environmental safeguards, Indigenous consultation, and faster approvals. “They want all of the things. That is a distinctly Canadian approach.”

• MEREDITH: The public is open to conditions, unionized labour, Indigenous participation, environmental offsets, not to bypassing them.

• WOODFINDEN: “If something extraordinary continues long enough, it becomes ordinary.” Carney’s mandate to move fast risks fading if delivery lags.

• PHILLIPS: “Politics are not fixed.” The ‘don’t know’ responses in polling reveal opportunity, or danger, for both sides of the national projects debate.

• MEREDITH: C-5 gives Cabinet power to act as “traffic cop” coordinating approvals, Indigenous engagement, and environmental conditions, a new form of transactional nation-building.

• PHILLIPS: The bill could accelerate transmission lines, renewable energy projects, and AI infrastructure, “That’s where you’ll get Canadians at 70% support.”

• WOODFINDEN: Conservatives and Liberals may share short-term goals but differ fundamentally on regulatory reform, “A branding and messaging divide.”
  

• MEREDITH: Canada’s leverage works when used strategically, not bombastically, “Pain may need to be felt on the U.S. side first.”

• PHILLIPS: “No deal is better than a bad deal.” A strong, united Canada is better positioned to face Trump’s negotiating style.

• WOODFINDEN: “The united front is fading.” Provincial freelancing is eroding national coordination, a gift to Trump’s divide-and-conquer tactics.

• MEREDITH: Lack of communication between Ottawa, provinces, and business is fueling anxiety “We cannot manage our own agenda if we do not have a coordinated response.”
  

• PHILLIPS: Alberta’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to end the teachers’ strike “opens a five-alarm fire” for labour rights across Canada.

• MEREDITH: Section 107 was never designed as a permanent tool, “It’s become a relief valve governments now reach for too easily.”

• WOODFINDEN: Conservatives’ outreach to labour complicates future debates, “The dynamic in Parliament has changed more than people realize.”

• PHILLIPS: Expect deeper divides between approaches to public- and private-sector unions in conservative politics.
  

• MEREDITH: EI reform is overdue, “If a recession hits, the system isn’t ready.”

• PHILLIPS: Alberta plans to invoke the Notwithstanding Clause again, this time to shield transgender legislation. “If the state can insert itself in your individual decisions, it will not stop there.”

• WOODFINDEN: Budget brinkmanship in a minority parliament is not chaos, it’s normal. “This is what minority governments look like.”
  

MBP Intelligence Roundtable is produced by Metamorphosis Media Group for Meredith, Boessenkool & Phillips (MBP) Intelligence.Learn more or join the MBP membership for exclusive access to policy briefings and private roundtables at mbpintelligence.com.

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In this episode of MBP Intelligence Briefing, Ben Woodfinden, Tyler Meredith, Ken Boessenkool and Shannon Phillips discuss:

• The “teaser budget” and how Prime Minister Trudeau and Mark Carney are framing a transformational moment for Canada’s economy

• What the language of sacrifice and “transformation” really signals for Canadians and how it landed with students

• The political balancing act between fiscal discipline, industrial policy and trade diversification

• “Buy Canadian,” AI investment, and talent strategy as pillars of the new industrial visionCanada’s evolving housing landscape and the impact of Alberta’s municipal elections

• “Around the Hall” the developments and signals to watch in the weeks ahead

Key Takeaways

On the Teaser Budget and Carney’s Framing

• MEREDITH: The decision to deliver a pre-budget address was about setting expectations, signalling a generational budget and framing the conversation before it lands.

• BOESSENKOOL: Carney is setting the bar extremely high, a “Paul Martin problem” of over-promising transformation before delivery.

• PHILLIPS: Doubling non-U.S. exports is a massive lift that would require a complete retooling of Canada’s economy.

• MEREDITH: “Buy Canadian” signals an industrial strategy that goes beyond steel and aluminum to technology and manufactured goods.

  On Sacrifice, Youth and Fiscal Balance

• MEREDITH: “Sacrifice” was framed as unity, a shared commitment to tough choices, but it also prepares Canadians for spending restraint in some areas.

• WOODFINDEN: The line landed awkwardly before university students who have seen house prices double and job prospects tighten, a telling communications moment.

• BOESSENKOOL: It was written for national media, not the room, a preview of the government’s tough-talk tone heading into budget day.

• PHILLIPS: When workers are facing weekly plant closures, deficits feel secondary to economic reality.

On Industrial Strategy and AI

• MEREDITH: Expect direction on AI sovereignty, data centres, cloud capacity and digital infrastructure, with details to follow after the budget.

• WOODFINDEN: Carney’s focus on critical minerals, AI, and education highlights Canada’s core comparative advantages.

• BOESSENKOOL: Expanding Canada Research Chairs to attract top global talent would be a small but strategic move with outsized impact.

• PHILLIPS: The speech underplayed existing wins like childcare and middle-class tax relief, missed chances to show tangible progress.
  On Housing and Regional Reality

• WOODFINDEN: The housing story has shifted, prices stabilizing, condo markets softening, and starts declining in Toronto and Vancouver while mid-sized cities grow.

• MEREDITH: Roughly $50 billion in housing initiatives (Build Canada Homes, MERB, modular construction, DC cuts) are coming, the challenge is execution and coordination.

• PHILLIPS: Co-operative and mixed-model housing is absent from today’s debate, civil society needs to reclaim that space.

On Alberta’s Municipal Elections and Coordination

• PHILLIPS: Calgary’s new leadership opens space for fresh federal-municipal collaboration; there’s room for constructive reset.

• BOESSENKOOL: Incoming councils inherit old agreements, like blanket rezoning, that now require federal renegotiation.

• MEREDITH: Real housing progress depends on provincial alignment, that’s where the legal and policy levers sit.

On Parliament and Political Timing

• MEREDITH: Passing the budget is only step one, implementation and supply votes create multiple points of leverage in a minority Parliament.

• BOESSENKOOL: Minorities often last longer than expected, election threats are constant but rarely materialize.WOODFINDEN: Moving the budget to fall forces discipline and changes how opposition parties plan their moves.

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In this episode Ben Woodfinden and Shannon Phillips talk with National President of UNIFOR Lana Payne and discuss:

• Stellantis, subsidies and Trump Pressure 03:02:18

• Government Tools and Leverage 05:49:12

• On a Team Canada Strategy, and potential divergence between federal and provincial governments 10:36:15

• On the Future of the Canadian Auto Sector 22:00:01

• On Labour Power and Policy 32:06:10

• Unifors Position and it’s members 42:20:10

Key Takeaways

On Stellantis, Subsidies and Trump Pressure

• PAYNE: This is the most blatant example of a corporation appeasing Trump. Canada must play hardball, enforce commitments negotiated in 2023, and make companies feel consequences when they move Canadian jobs.

• PAYNE: Failure to act risks a domino effect — if Stellantis escapes accountability, others like GM could follow.

• PHILLIPS: What matters now is not rhetoric but tools — what governments can actually do to make firms fulfill their obligations.
  

On Government Tools and Leverage

• PAYNE: Canada has powerful levers if it chooses to use them, beginning with a tariff-remission strategy that rewards companies meeting Canadian production commitments and penalizes those that don’t.

• PAYNE: If you’re going to sell here, you need to build here. Market access, energy supply, and public subsidies are all bargaining chips.

• PAYNE: Governments can no longer rely only on incentives. The world has changed — we must use sticks as well as carrots.
  

On a Team Canada Strategy

• PHILLIPS: The provinces, especially Ontario, have meaningful leverage; their willingness to act matters.

• WOODFINDEN: Emerging divergence between Ford and Carney that was not there a few months ago. Ford is fighting openly while Ottawa appears more cautious.

• PAYNE: Canada risks fragmentation as provinces pursue separate interests. We need a strong Team Canada approach uniting unions, industry, and all levels of government.

• PAYNE: Trump’s trade posture is an existential threat. He’s coming for our auto jobs.

• PAYNE: Need to think about and plan for long-term resilience. We can’t just export raw materials and help someone else build their economy — we must build our own industrial base.
  

On the Future of the Canadian Auto Sector

• PAYNE: Before Trump’s trade war, Canada was finally rebuilding its footprint — battery plants, EV supply chains, and domestic R&D. U.S. backtracking threatens that progress.

• PAYNE: Warns that China’s massive overproduction of vehicles could soon flood the global market. Canada must plan now to compete.
  

On Labour Power and Policy

• PAYNE: Section 107 is a very dangerous path. It conditions employers to expect government rescue instead of bargaining fairly. Using 107 will not bring labour peace; it prolongs workplace problems.

• PHILLIPS: Government may need clearer guardrails before invoking 107.

• PAYNE: You don’t get to use 107 — that’s the starting point. Supports mediation and conciliation instead of forced arbitration.

• WOODFINDEN: Notes shifts in the political landscape as unionized and blue-collar voters move toward conservatives.
  

Shifting Political Coalitions and Realignments

• PAYNE: Unifor stays non-partisan. We build our own power. Every party is chasing the working vote, which strengthens labour’s influence.

• PAYNE: The voter shift is about bread-and-butter issues — housing, wages, inflation — not ideology. People felt heard.

  
  

  
  

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