In this conversation, Saheb and Amit examine the three major structural dilemmas facing China’s economy: a persistently low domestic consumption rate of around 40 percent of GDP, making China an outlier among large economies; the Chinese state’s reluctance to adopt fiscal stimulus due to its ideological opposition to welfarism; and a sharp slowdown in real estate investment that has had ripple effects across the broader economy. They also discuss how China’s enduring trade surpluses, particularly with the U.S., EU, and India are generating international pushback. Despite high trade volumes, Amit highlights the limited nature of Chinese investment in India, noting that economic outreach from China is driven less by genuine market interest and more by geopolitical calculations.

The episode further explores why China’s engagement with regions like Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia cannot substitute for the demand found in Western markets. The episode also looks at how India’s large and growing consumer market could make it a prime destination for companies relocating under the China Plus One strategy, even if Chinese firms themselves remain reluctant to invest directly. Finally, the discussion draws a clear line between China’s diplomatic messaging and its actual economic practices, revealing a gap that continues to shape global perceptions.

Episode Contributors

Amit Kumar is a Staff Research Analyst at the China desk of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme. With a broader focus on China, he studies issues at the intersection of the economy, technology and security. His work encompasses writings on the Chinese economy, domestic politics, foreign policy, and India-China trade and security issues.

Saheb Singh Chadha is a senior research analyst in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on China’s foreign and security policies, India-China relations, and India’s military modernization. He is broadly interested in the geopolitics of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Suggested Readings

Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China by Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, and Aadil Brar

Crosswinds: Nehru, Zhou and the Anglo-American Competition over China by Vijay Gokhale

China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know by Arthur R. Kroeber

China’s Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia by Daniel S. Markey

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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The conversation delves into the shifting contours of global space governance, touching on the rise of dual-use technologies, the importance of transparency and norms in space activities, and the need for trusted partnerships. Samson outlines how India and the U.S. can work together to ensure space remains a stable and secure domain, citing examples from recent dialogues and space exercises. This episode underscores the importance of rules-based order in space and the benefits of integrating space cooperation into broader diplomatic frameworks of both countries, including under the Quad and the U.S.-India strategic tech and defence partnership.

Episode Contributors

Victoria Samson is the Chief Director for Space Security and Stability at the Secure World Foundation, with over 25 years of experience in military space and security issues. She has served as a senior analyst at the Center for Defense Information and is a leading voice in advancing norms of responsible space behavior.

Tejas Bharadwaj is a senior research analyst with the Technology and Society Program at Carnegie India. He focuses on space law and policies and also works on areas related to applications of artificial intelligence and autonomy in the military domain and U.S-India export controls. Tejas is also part of the group that works in convening Carnegie India’s annual flagship event, the “Global Technology Summit” co-organized with the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.