n this episode of Click Beta, Dave Nadig, Matt Zeigler, and Jason Buck go deep on the messy realities of U.S. fiscal policy, the politics of taxation and spending, and what it really means to “get our fiscal house in order.” They dig into the latest tax bill, the implications for business owners and local economies, and the broader consequences for American hegemony and cost of capital. Along the way, they explore MMT, VATs, FX sentiment, AI's role in tax planning, and the surprising policy influence of farmers. It’s a candid, unscripted, and often hilarious look at the issues that actually matter.Main Topics Covered:Why the math of austerity doesn’t add upWhat a “fiscal house in order” really looks likeThe hidden consequences of the new tax billState vs. federal policy shiftsLabor, wage incentives, and restaurant economicsMMT, bond markets, and inflation dynamicsThe underrated power of FX as a policy gaugePrivate credit, pork spending, and political realitiesTax planning as the new alpha for advisorsExchange funds, 351 ETFs, and solving concentrated wealthThe commoditization of portfolios and rise of tax-focused RIAs

In this episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig, and Jason Buck dive into the complex state of the U.S. economy — from recession signals and tariffs to shifting consumer behavior and surprising cultural trends. With no Google allowed and a shared mission to cut through the noise, the crew brings their personal anecdotes, macro analysis, and economic skepticism to the table. If you’ve ever wondered how the people behind the scenes of financial media actually talk when the cameras are off, this is that conversation.

Topics Covered:

Why it “feels” like a recession — even if it’s not official

The bullwhip effect and what shipping data is telling us

Consumer slowdown: anecdotes, vibes, and Domino’s earnings

Why tariffs may create hidden entrepreneurial opportunities

Services vs goods recessions: which one hits harder?

Brand winners and losers: the surprising Chili’s comeback

Is Gen X the forgotten generation?

How generations might need to collaborate to move forward

Do we still care about art, or are we remixing ourselves into oblivion?

Join Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig in this unfiltered and dynamic episode of Click Beta from Excess Returns. Feeling "stupid and exhausted" from their daily grind in markets and business, the trio ditches the polished analysis for a raw, behind-the-scenes rant session. With a mix of optimism, pessimism, and plenty of tangents, they dive into pre-agreed and surprise topics—no Google allowed—offering a blend of humor, skepticism, and unscripted insights. From AI breakthroughs to geopolitical powder kegs, this episode is a rollercoaster of ideas, seasoned with their signature banter and a touch of nihilism.

**Main Topics Covered:**

- **AI’s Right and Left Tails:** The hosts explore AI’s potential for transformative breakthroughs (like rewriting Social Security’s COBOL code) versus its risks, including trust erosion and overhyped promises.

- **Tariffs and Economic Policy:** They debate the optimistic case for tariffs reshaping U.S. manufacturing and tax policy (e.g., a VAT system) against the reality of roboticization and political chaos.

- **Geopolitical Tensions:** From the U.S. as a fading global bully to speculative left-tail events like Arctic shipping disputes or an accidental spark in Africa, they ponder the end of Pax Americana.

- **Community and Legacy:** The conversation shifts to pro-social thinking—how AI might free up time for community, contrasted with musings on legacy, ancestry, and whether it even matters.

- **Surprise Topics:** - *Canadian Animosity Toward the U.S.:* Is Canada’s current patriotism a fleeting protest or a lasting shift?

- *Broadening Perspectives:* Matt seeks ways to inspire long-term, pro-social thinking in everyday life.

- *D.C. Real Estate and Political Scapegoats:* Jason speculates on buying the dip in D.C. housing and Elon Musk as Trump’s potential fall guy.

No investment advice here—just three market-weary friends riffing on the world as they see it. Like, subscribe, and share if you enjoyed the chaos!