LONDON (ICIS)--Europe oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets have seen a subdued level of activity in December amid ample supply across derivative markets and sluggish demand.

For 2026, many remain sceptical surrounding the prospect of demand recovery tied in part to the potential of infrastructure spending and any resolution to ongoing geopolitical issues.

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech about market conditions and expectations for the near future.

In the second of a two-part Sustainably Speaking podcast special, Helen McGeough, ICIS Global Analyst Team Lead for Plastics Recycling talks to long-standing veterans of the European recycling industry about the current state of the market and steps for the future.

In Part 2, Helen is joined by Bernard Merkx who has an extensive background in the recycling industry and is the former President of Plastics Recyclers Europe, to take a look at the challenges still facing the recycling markets today, including:

• Risk of bankruptcies, high energy costs and price volatility to persist to 2027
• New recycling capacities focused on packaging at the expense of the automotive and construction sector despite upcoming recycled content targets
• How imports into the EU remain essential in the short-term
• Plus some calls to action for Europe’s recycling industry

With the prospect of global overcapacity easing from around 2030, Middle East petrochemical players are debating how to monetise their plentiful natural gas supplies.

• Middle East producers plan a major new capacity wave after 2030,
• Long‑term strategy centres on monetising hydrocarbons beyond 2030
• China’s overcapacity cycle may ease by around 2030,
• Debate about staying focused on simple, large‑volume commodity grades or moves into higher‑value or specialty polymers
• Climate‑driven demographic and economic pressures in the Global South could reshape demand
• Chinese competition in high‑value chemicals is intensifying
• Maintaining strong ties with China remains important today
• Massive crude oil‑to‑chemicals (COTC) ambitions are being moderated
• Partnerships and M&A are key tools for Middle East companies to secure technology, expand globally, and balance portfolios

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior consultant John Richardson.
Download a special issue of ICIS Chemical Business with full coverage of the recent Gulf Petrochemical Association (GPCA) event.

In the first of a two-part Sustainably Speaking podcast special, Helen McGeough, ICIS Global Analyst Team Lead for Plastics Recycling talks to long-standing veterans of the European recycling industry about the current state of the market and steps for the future.

In Part 1, Helen speaks to Dr Michael Scriba about the current downturn in Europe's recycling sector and discusses topics such as:

• What factors contribute towards the current prolonged industry downturn
• Industry barries such as lack of approval for polyolefins for use in food contact applications
• Large-scale adoption unlikely until 2030
• Lack of a robust European collection and sorting system for many recycled polymers
• Key actions needed such as interim targets from 2026 to bridge the gap to 2030 goals

Remarks by French president Emmanuel Macron suggest a tougher approach to protecting Europe as global chemicals move towards a 2028 bottom of cycle.

- Ethylene, propylene capacity additions to accelerate, peak in 2027

- 2028 bottom of the cycle, project delays could push this out to 2029

- 2000-2028 almost 75% of global capacity additions for key building blocks have been in China

- Final investment decision (FID)-to-on spec production can be only 2.5 years in China, so risk of further projects adding to the problem

- China additions may slow from 2030 due to peak carbon goals

- Fight for survival for producers in Europe and Asia

- To balance markets around 24m tonnes of ethylene closures required – equivalent to demand of Europe, Former USSR and Africa

- 26m tonnes of propylene closures required - equivalent to capacity of Europe, Former USSR and Africa

- Olefins demand at 30-year low in Europe, to 1990s levels, and will not revive

- Signs of a more protectionist approach by Europe to save industrial base

- Producers in China are also suffering from overcapacity, losing money

- China exported more chemicals than the US or Middle East in Q2 2025

- Trinseo closure, INEOS Quattro ratings downgrade spell more bad news

Asian spot prices for butadiene (BD) are rebounding, after a prolonged period of declines, as supply tightens on various unplanned grounds, but the supply losses may be minimised if China exports rise. Join ICIS Asian BD editors Elaine Zhang and Ai Teng Lim, as well as Senior Analyst Ann Sun, as they discuss current Asian BD market developments and a near term outlook.

Since the US Liberation Day, chemical prices and margins have plummeted, while tariffs are also accelerating the end of existing globalised business models of trade.

- Tariffs are altering decades of globalized trade patterns, pushing economies toward protectionism

- Chemical prices and volumes have plummeted since Liberation Day on 2 April

- Export-oriented business models under threat, particularly for US chemical companies

- Average US tariffs surged from 2.4% to 28% before settling around 16.8%, the highest since 1935 during the Great Depression

- Future strategy must focus on regional supply chains and production capabilities, reducing reliance on global exports

- Rising geopolitical tensions and NATO uncertainties mean chemicals for defence could become a major growth area

- Localized production will drive demand for recycling, acceptance of mass balance approach needed

- Grupa Azoty Polyolefins bankruptcy shows vulnerability of European chemical projects in an oversupplied global market

- Regionalization trend already accelerating companies like BASF touting local capacity as a competitive advantage amid tariff uncertainty

- Expect consolidation into fewer, larger producers in Europe, while smaller players may shut down or transition to specialties/low carbon production

China has a huge impact on the global chemical industry in terms of supply and demand so analysis of future demographic and economic trends is important for business leaders.

- Huge variation in forecasts for changes in population

- Chemicals demand growth scenario planning is vital

- Must take into account China’s success in technology and exports

- Demand boost if export earnings are funnelled back into pension and healthcare reforms

- ICIS base case 2025-2050 sees 2% polyolefins demand growth per annum, down from 10% between 1992 and 2024

- More container traffic may return to the Suez Canal if ceasefire holds