Episode 1452: Think Tank: Middle East chemicals will take 12-18 months to return to normal
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Episode 1452: Think Tank: Middle East chemicals will take 12-18 months to return to normal
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概要
Even if the current shaky ceasefire becomes permanent, the complexities of repairing and restarting chemical plants means global markets will have to wait 12-18 months for regional operations to return to normal.
- Restarting chemical plants is complex and requires external technical experts who will be in short supply
- Plant restarts require huge amounts of energy, which will overstretch power networks if multiple plants try to fire up
- Logistics logjams will add further delays to restart plans
- Personnel are no longer on site and will have to return
- It will take 12-18 months for Middle East production to ramp up
- Europe and Asia will be lucky to receive Middle East trade flows by the end of the year
- Europe’s chemical industry could see a renaissance if industrial customers return to local sourcing
- Europe is becoming cost-competitive again