A potential surge in oil prices to $140–150/barrel could trigger demand destruction, volatility and disruption across global chemical markets.

- Further delays to reopening of Strait of Hormuz could see oil prices rise to $140–150/bbl

- Higher oil would drive panic buying then sharp demand destruction as downstream customers cannot absorb costs

- Markets are already “extremely cautious and hand to mouth”, reflecting uncertainty over timing of any resolution

- Chemical markets are most price-volatile since 2008

- Demand is weakening due to inflation, higher interest rates and consumer pressure, hitting purchasing power

- Prolonged conflict risks inventory depletion, raising likelihood of further price shocks in oil and petrochemicals

- China has increased exports sharply (up ~40% year on year), helping offset supply gaps but pressuring global margins

- Asia faces the most acute supply disruption, with plant shutdowns and reduced operating rates due to feedstock shortages

- Structural risks are rising, including plant closures and bankruptcies, particularly where high costs meet weak demand

- Industry may be entering a “global reset”, driven by overcapacity, weak demand and sustained geopolitical disruption

FUKUOKA, Japan (ICIS)--In this podcast, ICIS editors Josh Quah, Joy Foo, Ai Teng Lim and Jonathan Chou discuss the ongoing developments in Asia olefins and vinyls on the sidelines of Asia Petrochemicals Industry Conference (APIC) 2026 conference.

The editors cover trends in ethylene, propylene, butadiene and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), as well as shifting trade flows across the region.

With Chinese exports increasingly asserting a greater presence in Asia as an impact of the Mideast conflict, they discuss what this may mean for the immediate future of these products.

• Unprecedented increase in Chinese olefin exports in March, April pressure markets amid demand drop-off
• PVC export markets contend with intensifying Chinese carbide PVC supply competition amid India monsoon season
• Temporary nature of Chinese exports called into question

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Asian methyl methacrylate (MMA) markets continue to feel the impact of supply shocks seen in early March, with no near-term resolution in the Middle East conflict.

Producers continue to grapple with costs from high-priced inventories built up during earlier panic buying, while struggling to pass these on to downstream buyers. This comes as easing feedstock conditions exert downward pressure on MMA prices.

In this podcast, ICIS senior editor Jasmine Khoo joins us from the 2026 Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Fukuoka Japan, to discuss challenges in derivative markets, rising Chinese spot export activity, and an overhang of existing inventories.

• Accumulated inventories in Mar-Apr deter buying as alternative feedstock routes add supply pressure
• Chinese spot activity gains traction as regional producers grapple with elevated costs
• Seasonal June lull, Mideast conflict, weak downstream confidence keep sentiment pessimistic