Jason Hartman speaks at the Rebel Capitalist Conference. He explores the complexities of the real estate market, addressing the frequent question of whether there's a bubble. Many anticipated a crash during events like COVID, but Hartman explains why real estate differs from fiat assets like stocks. He highlights the challenges in producing new housing due to land and commodity restrictions. His "packaged commodities investing" strategy emphasizes the intrinsic value of housing materials. Hartman advises aligning interests with powerful forces like governments and central banks, leveraging income properties' multidimensional benefits. Despite rising prices, he argues that housing remains more affordable than perceived when compared to commodities like gold and oil.
He also explains how the rise in interest rates has led to only 8-9 million home transactions out of 140 million units, leaving 131 million homeowners with low 3% mortgages. These homeowners are not selling, causing a market freeze. Hartman predicts that the market will slowly unlock as more transactions occur, with the "lock-in" effect diminishing by about 4 million units a year. Despite predictions from Fannie Mae, Hartman believes mortgage rates won't drop significantly until next year. The low inventory and high buyer demand will keep the housing market tight, preventing a crash similar to the Great Recession. Conclusion: There is NO #HOUSINGBUBBLE coming in the near future. There is however a #housingaffordability issue!
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