What if the technology making your phone "smart" is actually making you vulnerable to mass surveillance?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt examine how modern geofence warrants are reviving a centuries-old conflict over government surveillance. They trace the origins of the Fourth Amendment’s protection against “general warrants” to colonial America and the landmark 1761 case involving John Wilkes, showing how fears of broad, suspicionless searches echo in today’s digital world.

The hosts explain how geofence warrants allow police to obtain location data from every device within a defined area, potentially sweeping innocent people into criminal investigations before identifying any actual suspect. They also explore why smartphones make opting out of location tracking increasingly difficult, while challenging the outdated third-party doctrine and debating the “bailment theory” of digital privacy.

What You Will Learn:

• Why "general warrants" terrified the American founders
• The John Wilkes story
• How geofence warrants actually work in three sketchy steps
• Why turning off location tracking essentially breaks your smartphone
• The "bailment theory" of privacy: why your data is like a valet-parked car
• How to think critically about any new surveillance tech

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

• Jonathan Hofer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-hofer-a0b14219a
• Caleb Petitt on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/caleb-petitt-111126187
• Independent Institute URL for the podcast page: https://www.independent.org/podcast/history-of-the-future
• Independent Institute Website: https://www.independent.org

• (00:00:02) - Historical of the Future
• (00:01:19) - The Supreme Court's Decision on Geofence Watches
• (00:03:25) - Google vs. Virginia Police
• (00:05:08) - NSA's Surveillance of Americans
• (00:06:46) - General Wills vs. Massachusetts
• (00:12:01) - William Wilkes on the Fourth Amendment
• (00:18:54) - Geofence Warrant and General Waivers
• (00:22:35) - Do You Own Your Data?
• (00:33:14) - Geofence warrants: Should They Be Illegal?
• (00:37:10) - Geofence: A Turning Point
• (00:40:42) - History of the Future

AI, economics, economic history, the Industrial Revolution, automation, jobs, innovation, and the future of work are at the heart of the inaugural episode of History of the Future. Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore what history can teach us about AI, looking at past technological revolutions—from the Industrial Revolution to the internet—to explain why today's AI boom may be more familiar than it seems.

They examine how technological change reshapes labor markets, why fears of job displacement often overlook the creation of new opportunities, and what the "Engels' pause" reveals about short-term disruption and long-term prosperity.

Jonathan and Caleb also discuss AI data centers, infrastructure, AI regulation, productivity, lower-skilled workers, and the economic forces shaping the future of artificial intelligence. It's a timely, historically grounded look at one of the most important technological and economic transformations of our time.

What You Will Learn:

• Why AI data centers prove the private sector can still build ambitious infrastructure when government gets out of the way
• How the Luddites weren't anti-technology purists but workers protecting livelihoods
• The "Engels' pause" framework
• Why low-skilled workers are actually best positioned to benefit from AI
• Why the jobs that disappear are visible while new job creation remains invisible
• The difference between regulating AI by computational power (Biden's approach) versus regulating by end-use cases (Trump's approach)

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

• Jonathan Hofer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-hofer-a0b14219a
• Caleb Petitt on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/caleb-petitt-111126187
• Independent Institute URL for the podcast page: https://www.independent.org/podcast/history-of-the-future
• Independent Institute Website: https://www.independent.org

• (00:00:00) - Why AI Data Centers Are Good for the US Economy
• (00:00:38) - History of the Future: Artificial Intelligence
• (00:02:08) - History of the Future
• (00:02:53) - Are You A Soccer Fan?
• (00:03:48) - Air Conditioning During the World Cup
• (00:13:58) - What Is AI?
• (00:15:36) - Do we Need a Luddite Revolution?
• (00:22:23) - Karl Marx vs Hegel
• (00:29:32) - Are You Going to Lose Your Job to AI?
• (00:35:14) - Leah Palskavili's work on the gig economy
• (00:37:25) - Exogenous and endogenous growth models
• (00:40:35) - The History of Artificial Intelligence
• (00:42:15) - Disruptions in the Economy
• (00:46:20) - WSJD: Could AI Increase Inequality?
• (00:52:58) - Artificial Intelligence and the Future
• (00:54:26) - Favorite Movie That Employs AI
• (00:56:28) - Are There Any AIs In The Odyssey?
• (00:58:53) - History of the Future

Why do the same ideas keep coming back?

History of the Future connects history, economics, and today's biggest headlines to better understand what's next.

Coming Wednesday!

• (00:00:03) - History of the Future