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For nearly eighty years, Europe's security has rested on a single assumption: that the Americans would be there. In early March, days into the war with Iran, and weeks after Washington threatened to take Greenland from a NATO ally, we sat down with Jeremy Shapiro to ask whether that assumption still holds, and what Europe does if it doesn't.

Since this conversation was recorded, the Pentagon has ordered thousands of American troops out of Germany, canceled an armored brigade deployment to Poland, and told allies that future U.S. force levels will depend on how well they align with Washington's priorities. France has offered its nuclear umbrella to eight European countries. And at last week's NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump suggested the United States could remove its soldiers from Europe entirely.

Shapiro saw much of this coming. He explains why Europeans no longer trust the American security guarantee, why they can't yet walk away from it, and what a European defense built to operate without the United States would look like, if the political will lasts long enough to build it.

Can Europe defend itself before the American umbrella closes? And what happens to the alliance if the answer is no?

Join us for this special recap edition featuring Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Music by Alex_Kizenkov from Pixabay.

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From the Strait of Hormuz to the international monetary system to the semi-conductor supply chain, the world is becoming increasingly aware of how dependence on critical chokepoints is shaping how countries can wield power and leverage. As diplomacy becomes increasingly transactional and technological and energy systems undergo rapid transformation, understanding these visible and invisible chokepoints is essential to any decision maker.

Is the weaponization of geography becoming the norm? What strategic gains do states expect from exploiting chokepoints? And which mechanisms can prevent the weaponization of chokepoints by states?

Join us for a discussion featuring Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” Professor Monica Hakimi, the William S. Beinecke Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, and Professor James Holmes, the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College.

Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The COVID-19 Pandemic. On-and-off-and-on-again tariffs. Over the past few years, the deeply interconnected global system has experienced major shocks that international organizations and nation states alike have struggled to grapple with. In this age of uncertainty, businesses and governments need to make new calculations. More large companies are opening their own geopolitical units to stay steady on the shifting currents. How do corporations assess geopolitical risks? What changes do companies large and small need to make in their approaches to doing business? And what unforeseen opportunities may come from these changes?

Join us to delve into the calculation of risks in this potential new geopolitical order with Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist at BCA Research and Pablo Rasmussen, a Director at Brzezinski Global Strategies.

Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.