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For nearly eighty years, Europe's security has rested on a single assumption: that the Americans would be there. In early March, days into the war with Iran, and weeks after Washington threatened to take Greenland from a NATO ally, we sat down with Jeremy Shapiro to ask whether that assumption still holds, and what Europe does if it doesn't.

Since this conversation was recorded, the Pentagon has ordered thousands of American troops out of Germany, canceled an armored brigade deployment to Poland, and told allies that future U.S. force levels will depend on how well they align with Washington's priorities. France has offered its nuclear umbrella to eight European countries. And at last week's NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump suggested the United States could remove its soldiers from Europe entirely.

Shapiro saw much of this coming. He explains why Europeans no longer trust the American security guarantee, why they can't yet walk away from it, and what a European defense built to operate without the United States would look like, if the political will lasts long enough to build it.

Can Europe defend itself before the American umbrella closes? And what happens to the alliance if the answer is no?

Join us for this special recap edition featuring Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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From the Strait of Hormuz to the international monetary system to the semi-conductor supply chain, the world is becoming increasingly aware of how dependence on critical chokepoints is shaping how countries can wield power and leverage. As diplomacy becomes increasingly transactional and technological and energy systems undergo rapid transformation, understanding these visible and invisible chokepoints is essential to any decision maker.

Is the weaponization of geography becoming the norm? What strategic gains do states expect from exploiting chokepoints? And which mechanisms can prevent the weaponization of chokepoints by states?

Join us for a discussion featuring Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,” Professor Monica Hakimi, the William S. Beinecke Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, and Professor James Holmes, the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College.

Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The COVID-19 Pandemic. On-and-off-and-on-again tariffs. Over the past few years, the deeply interconnected global system has experienced major shocks that international organizations and nation states alike have struggled to grapple with. In this age of uncertainty, businesses and governments need to make new calculations. More large companies are opening their own geopolitical units to stay steady on the shifting currents. How do corporations assess geopolitical risks? What changes do companies large and small need to make in their approaches to doing business? And what unforeseen opportunities may come from these changes?

Join us to delve into the calculation of risks in this potential new geopolitical order with Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist at BCA Research and Pablo Rasmussen, a Director at Brzezinski Global Strategies.

Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.

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Recent hostilities with Iran have once again highlighted the role of the Kurds as a key player in regional conflicts. While seen as a threat by governments in Ankara, Tehran, Damascus, and Baghdad, the world’s largest stateless group of people continues to be considered by Washington as potential allies when convenient. As the region faces new waves of destabilization, particularly with the war with Iran and the new Syrian government consolidating its territory, what will the role of the Kurds be across the region? How will the disparate views of 30-40 million people spread over four countries impact dynamics in this volatile region as well as for their own quest for independence? .

Join us for a discussion with Bill Park, Visiting Research Fellow in the Defence Studies Department, King’s College, London, where we will examine how today’s rapidly shifting regional dynamics are creating both new opportunities and new vulnerabilities for Kurdish communities and whether potential support from the U.S. will be strong and sustainable or easily abandoned.

Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay

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The recent expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia marks a structural shift in the global nuclear order, removing the last legally binding constraints on the world’s two largest arsenals. With no successor framework in place, the bilateral arms control architecture that has underpinned stability for decades is effectively suspended. In its absence, risks of vertical and horizontal proliferation are intensifying. According to the UN assessment, for the first time in decades, the number of nuclear warheads and nuclear testing is rising, and global military spending climbed to $2.7 trillion in 2025, an increase of 2.9% from the previous year. New records show that China is the fastest-growing nuclear power globally and is significantly expanding its nuclear weapons infrastructure, raising concerns about a potential new global arms race as major arms control agreements weaken.

At the same time, emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, advanced sensors, and precision-strike capabilities, are reshaping the foundations of deterrence, complicating traditional approaches to verification and monitoring. This discussion will examine how the erosion of arms control is accelerating proliferation pressures, how technological change is altering the strategic landscape, and whether a new, credible system of nuclear restraint can still be constructed.

Join us for an insightful virtual discussion on the new risks of global proliferation featuring David Albright, a Physicist and Founder of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security, Alexandra Bell, President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Senior Fellow and Director of Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security.

Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay.

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Cuba is at a strategic crossroads as the near collapse of its national energy system reshapes the island’s political landscape. Intense U.S. sanctions and the loss of energy support from traditional partners like Venezuela have left the Cuban government in its most vulnerable state in decades. While Havana seeks diplomatic paths forward, the current U.S. administration sees an opportunity for changing a government that Washington has declared “an unusual and extraordinary security threat.” This crisis moment carries profound implications for U.S. foreign policy and for broader geopolitics.. What is the current situation in Cuba, and how is Washington’s geopolitical pressure impacting its governance? What role might other countries, like Russia, play in this situation? And what are most likely future scenarios for Cuba?

Join us for an insightful discussion that explores the current state of affairs in Cuba and its future trajectory. Our speaker for this briefing will be Emily Mendrala, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs.

Music by Sergii Pavkin from Pixabay.

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It has been just over a year since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” global tariff announcement. Since then, the global trade landscape has shifted as countries hedged against their traditional dependence on the U.S. market. Driven by the increasing use of trade as a political weapon and constant tariff disputes, long-time allies like Canada, the UK, and the EU are now diversifying their trade partnerships as evidenced by landmark moves like the new EU-India trade deal and recent diplomatic pivots toward China. How is the web of trade alliances being re-woven and what are the implications for Washington? How is the U.S. private sector adapting to this complex new reality? And will this move toward strategic autonomy lead to a more stable global equilibrium or simply spark more conflict between competing regional blocs?

Join us for a discussion on the changing landscape of global trade, featuring Edward Alden, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Alice Slayton Clark, Senior Vice President of Trade, Investment and Digital Policy at the United States Council for International Business, and Dr. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics

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In response to the unprecedented economic sanctions put on Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow spent over $10 billion on building a “shadow fleet,” accelerating a practice that countries such as Venezuela and Iran have used to circumvent sanctions. In addition to sanctions evasion, shadow fleets often operate under false flags, lack proper insurance, and pose serious risks of spills, collisions, and abusive labor conditions. Furthermore, the EU has linked the shadow fleet directly to Russia’s hybrid warfare operations, including recent damage to power and telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. As global shipping comes under new scrutiny with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the ability of the shadow fleet to undermine Washington’s strategy raises new concerns. What does the web of shadow fleet shipping look like? What impact has the war with Iran had on the fleet? And what strategies can be used to counter this practice?

Join us for a discussion on how Russia’s shadow fleet is challenging the global maritime order, featuring Michelle Wiese Bockmann, Maritime Intelligence Analyst and Writer specializing in sanctioned oil flows and Elisabeth Braw, Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.