Welcome to the future. In 2026, we're pretty convinced that the global map will get some major rewrites. Our '26 bingo card has the potential collapse of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes, the end of the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent battle for Russia’s very soul crossed out. While others fear peaking deglobalization, Marko and Jacob see a path to lowered tariffs and an incoming LNG glut that finally breaks the back of Europe’s energy crisis. It’s time to stop looking for patterns and start preparing for the non-linear :) chaoschaoschaoschaos

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:16) - Forecasting 2026: Tariffs and Trade

(04:40) - US-China Relations and Latin America Focus

(11:03) - Predictions for Venezuela and Cuba

(13:55) - Ukraine War and Russian Politics

(23:57) - European Energy Market Outlook

(28:36) - Middle East: A Callous Perspective

(29:50) - Saudi Arabia and UAE: Progress and Predictions

(30:25) - Iran's Uncertain Future

(32:11) - Turkey's Role in Geopolitics

(33:08) - Oil Prices and Middle East Stability

(35:59) - Israel's Resilience and Market Impact

(39:42) - Forecasting Global Trade Agreements

(44:57) - The Rise of Robotics in 2026

(51:34) - Blind Spots and Unmentioned Regions

(54:41) - Final Thoughts and Potential Oversights

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Look, the world is decoupling, and everyone is making their bet. Mexico just threw their chips on the table with 50% tariffs, effectively divorcing China to marry the U.S. in a desperate play for North American relevance. Meanwhile, the Andes are swinging hard right, betting that nationalism and market-pro policies are the only way to survive a multipolar free-for-all.... But here's the truth: tariffs are just a consumption tax in a MAGA hat, and if the Supreme Court kills them, the bond market is going to riot. Forget the politics; follow the robots and the revenue.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome :)

(01:41) - Mexico's Tariff Decision

(07:44) - The Impact of Robotics on Manufacturing

(23:42) - Chile's Shift to the Right

(24:56) - Right-Wing Movements in Latin America

(31:22) - Crime and Immigration in Latin America

(38:13) - Montreal and Miami: Cities Built on Illicit Trafficking

(38:55) - The Godfather: An American Story of Crime and Legitimization

(40:14) - Fentanyl: Declared a Weapon of Mass Destruction

(42:38) - US Foreign Policy: Lessons from the 1980s

(46:05) - The Trump Administration's Controversial Policies

(56:44) - Supreme Court and Tariffs: A Critical Decision

(01:10:54) - Concluding Thoughts on US Policy and Economics

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Referenced in the Show:

Fent is a WMD: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/designating-fentanyl-as-a-weapon-of-mass-destruction/

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter:

The global discourse has hit a new low: political commentators are creating content out of a YouTube moron’s mean-spirited quest for clicks. Nick Fuentes, please, for the love of god, do better. Marko and Jacob drill past the outrage to ask why "mean" has become the default setting for public life.

Then, Marko takes on the herculean task of defending the US' new National Security Strategy - which correctly identifies the need for a vital Europe, even if its authors got their core immigration data from clickbait white-woke channels. Finally, the real game: the US-Mexico-China trade triangle, where the path to American greatness may involve Chinese-built factories in Ohio.

It’s nihilism, baby.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Setting the Scene

(00:43) - Late Night Recording and Personal Updates

(01:40) - Controversial Discussion on Hitler and Nick Fuentes

(05:44) - Media's Role and Public Perception

(26:39) - National Security Strategy Debate

(34:28) - European Support for the Euro

(35:15) - American Perception of the EU

(38:27) - France and the Euro

(42:14) - Misdiagnosing Europe's Problems

(48:51) - US Seizes Venezuelan Oil Tanker

(56:54) - Mexico's Tariffs on Chinese Imports

(58:57) - US-China Relations and Manufacturing

(01:05:32) - Podcast Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

National Security Strategy 2025 - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter:

Let's talk about the National Security Strategy! American policy is entering its “choose-your-own-adventure” era, where fiscal dreams meet bond-market reality, and every global problem looks oddly like a mortgage-rate issue. What happens when primacy of nations collides with actual nations... some of which are run by people you wouldn’t trust with your lawnmower? Marko and Jacob step up to trade pitches on Trump’s “peace,” Venezuela’s theatrics, Honduras’ magical disappearing red lines, and whether geopolitics is now basically just offshore balancing with better PR. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Geopolitical Cousins

(01:14) - Raccoon Story and Algorithm Talk

(02:40) - Basketball and Leadership Analogies

(05:54) - Geopolitics Starts lol

(06:10) - Trump Accounts and Economic Policies

(21:17) - National Security Strategy Discussion

(47:04) - Critique of US Foreign Policy Rigidity

(47:18) - Pragmatism in US Foreign Policy

(47:35) - US Stance on Iran and Social Issues

(48:33) - Historical Context and Containment Policy

(49:24) - Flexible Foreign Policy and Realism

(50:37) - US Actions in Venezuela and Honduras

(56:38) - Venezuela's Oil and US Interests

(58:44) - Honduras' Strategic Importance

(01:01:55) - US Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy

(01:03:19) - National Security Strategy and Global Military Presence

(01:08:11) - Debate on Multipolar World and US Strategy

(01:23:14) - AI, Crypto, and National Security

(01:29:32) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

National Security Strategy Document - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin:

Rising political extremes, shifting alliances, and competing visions of global order collide as leaders improvise their way through economic anxiety and geopolitical recalibration. Matt Gertken hops into the fray to help the cousins probe the uncomfortable overlap between left-wing populism and right-wing nationalism, the strategic ambiguity surrounding Taiwan, and the high-stakes bargaining shaping the future of Ukraine. What happens when power politics, domestic fragility, and global insecurity all peak at the same time?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Setup

(00:40) - Trump and Momani's Unlikely Friendship

(02:17) - Analyzing Trump's Political Moves

(13:05) - Japan-China Tensions Escalate

(17:54) - Geopolitical Implications for Taiwan

(30:20) - Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan Discussion

(37:19) - Europe's Commitment to Ukraine

(38:34) - Ukraine's Strategic Calculations

(39:21) - Ukrainian Public Sentiment

(40:43) - Debating Russia's Military Competence

(43:10) - The 28-Point Plan and Zelensky's Political Future

(43:34) - Economic Interests and Rebuilding Ukraine

(44:38) - Security Guarantees and Diplomatic Challenges

(56:50) - Trump's Role and Strategic Ambitions

(01:01:39) - Conspiracy Theories and Speculations

(01:02:40) - Debating China's Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

(01:03:50) - Speculating on Ukraine's Future and European Dynamics

(01:05:36) - Potential Outcomes of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

(01:11:16) - Historical Analogies and Russia's Political Future

(01:21:06) - Geopolitical Shifts and the Role of China

(01:26:49) - Thanksgiving Anecdotes and Closing Remarks

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s...

Jacob and Marko finally caved to the mob on X and did what everyone (one guy who asked nicely) keeps yelling at them to do - rank the top five geopolitical U.S. presidents and the bottom five disasters. Not the best presidents. Not the most “inspirational.” The most geopolitically competent… and the ones who should never have been allowed within 500 feet of foreign policy.

It gets spicy. Lincoln shows up with ruthless brilliance, Polk rolls in like the ultimate expansionist psychopath, Teddy swings a big stick (and probably breaks a few ribs), and then we get to the bottom five - where the real chaos lives.

Why do some leaders bend history while others trip over it? And what happens when the world’s biggest superpower forgets the stakes?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Best Intro Ever

(00:42) - Listener Reactions and Content Expectations

(01:43) - Current Events and Personal Opinions

(02:37) - Coffee Rant and Personal Preferences

(05:07) - Geopolitical Anecdotes and Personal Stories

(09:58) - Top Five Geopolitical US Presidents

(14:10) - Debating Presidential Competence

(46:05) - Reagan's Foreign Policy and the Gulf War

(46:56) - George HW Bush's Strategic Decisions

(48:29) - Bush's Approach to China and Tiananmen Square

(49:54) - Theodore Roosevelt's Foreign Policy Legacy

(50:58) - Comparing Presidential Foreign Policies

(54:50) - Honorable Mentions and Controversial Picks

(01:10:17) - Worst Foreign Policy Presidents

(01:20:14) - LBJ's Economic and War Policies((01:21:14 George W. Bush's Foreign Policy Failures

(01:22:12) - The Impact of Al-Qaeda and the War on Terror

(01:26:07) - Truman's Geopolitical Blunders

(01:32:26) - Bill Clinton's Missed Opportunities

(01:39:36) - Eisenhower's Domino Theory and CIA Operations

(01:48:39) - Biden's Foreign Policy Critique

(01:59:18) - Final Thoughts and Reflections

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin:

Power tilts, voter moods, and economic pressures collide as shifting swing-state margins, rising price levels, and clashing visions of populism redefine the boundaries of U.S. politics. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro traces how competing narratives on inflation, governance, and national identity shape the struggles within both major parties, while global tensions - from tariff battles to uneasy U.S.-China rapprochement - raise the stakes. At its core lies a question: can the political center hold when every lever of power is pulled toward extremes?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:58) - Personal Anecdotes and Flu Game Discussion

(02:43) - Client Call Story and Michael Jordan Stats

(04:32) - Health Updates and Podcast Menu

(05:14) - Democratic Election Victories Analysis

(06:20) - Republican Challenges and Latino Vote Shift

(08:19) - Potential Democratic Presidential Nominees

(17:27) - Inflation and Economic Policies Debate

(27:12) - Populism and Fiscal Policies

(42:24) - Supreme Court and Tariff Discussions

(45:56) - Uncertainty in Trade Policies

(46:42) - US-China Trade Deal Breakdown

(47:56) - Global Reactions and Comparisons

(49:06) - Public Opinion on Trade

(50:47) - Trump's Trade War and Its Implications

(52:03) - US-China Relations and Future Prospects

(01:11:58) - Venezuela and US Foreign Policy

(01:22:57) - The Future of Global Geopolitics

(01:34:06) - Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes

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Referenced in the Show:

Communist Reagan - https://x.com/aidannonx/status/1982662832521875962?s=20

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s...

Sanctions, alliances, and power balances are shifting faster than markets can price them. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro look at the U.S. Treasury’s crackdown on Russian oil, the fragility of global energy flows, and the illusion of stability in a world built on competing pain thresholds. Between Washington’s brinkmanship, Moscow’s resolve, and Beijing’s quiet calculation, this episode dissects how endurance—not strategy—defines modern geopolitics, and why every great power eventually meets its limit.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Promotion

(00:20) - US-Russia Relations and Sanctions

(02:02) - Ukraine Conflict and Ceasefire Prospects

(06:03) - European Energy Dependence on Russia

(11:36) - Trump's Foreign Policy and Strategic Goals

(26:55) - Canada-US Trade Tensions

(40:39) - The Limits of Military Power

(41:10) - China's Economic Leverage

(41:39) - The Trade War Dynamics

(42:26) - China's Manufacturing Dependency

(43:19) - The Challenge of Decoupling

(44:17) - China's Consumer Market Issues

(46:32) - The Future of US-China Relations

(52:42) - The Role of Semiconductors

(57:39) - The Reality of Trade Deals

(01:02:23) - Geopolitical Strategies and Misunderstandings

(01:05:25) - US Military Posturing in Venezuela

(01:15:34) - Trump's Military Strategy and Liberal Media Critique

(01:16:46) - Venezuela and Regime Change

(01:18:13) - North Korea and Trump's Near Miss

(01:19:22) - Maduro's Offer and US Interests

(01:28:11) - China's Role and Global Energy Politics

(01:38:03) - NBA Scandals and Player Dynamics

(01:47:47) - Baseball Playoffs and Personal Anecdotes

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s...