Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:40) - Concept of Trade Value in Politics

(03:56) - Ranking Criteria and Methodology

(10:22) - Initial Rankings: 26-30

(13:30) - Discussion on Initial Rankings

(21:08) - Flawed but Effective Leaders

(29:53) - Unproven Gems

(38:13) - Competent but Boring Leaders

(41:51) - Diamonds Under Pressure

(44:52) - Lula and Bolsonaro: The Biden Comparison

(45:10) - Victor Orban: The Smart Tactician

(45:54) - Benjamin Netanyahu: The Politician's Politician

(46:55) - Javier Millet: Crypto Ron Paul Meets Steve Jobs

(48:01) - Narendra Modi: The Twilight of a Career

(52:40) - Diamonds Under Pressure: Eddie Rama and Cyril Osa

(53:16) - Naive Bukele: The Perfect Man for the Era

(58:52) - Shigeru Ishiba: The Tragic Hero of Japan

(01:02:25) - Top Leaders: From Pedro Sanchez to Georgia Maloney

(01:19:12) - Final Thoughts

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at...

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:05) - Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War

(02:03) - Debate on the Iran Nuclear Program

(06:35) - Media and Political Reactions

(17:13) - Iran's Domestic Politics and Future Scenarios

(31:27) - The JCPOA and Its Shortcomings

(32:23) - Iran's Influence in Iraq

(36:12) - The Kurdish Opportunity

(37:17) - NATO Summit and Defense Spending

(42:53) - Global Military Spending Insights

(50:02) - Trump's Influence on NATO

(56:02) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob and Marko break down the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, unpacking the strategic logic, historical echoes, and likely retaliation scenarios. They debate the possibility of regime change, Iranian restraint, and why Strait of Hormuz closure is the true red line. The cousins also explore Trump’s foreign policy instincts, the limits of multipolarity, and why the Middle East keeps repeating itself. It’s fast, fiery, and packed with geopolitical clarity...and Tupac.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Announcement

(00:48) - Opening Remarks and Personal Notes

(01:14) - US-Iran Conflict Overview

(01:49) - Iran's Response and Global Reactions

(04:58) - Historical Context and Comparisons

(07:05) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations

(07:48) - Regime Change and Internal Dynamics

(09:01) - Global Implications and Multipolarity

(33:26) - Terrorism and Security Concerns

(41:57) - Bannon's Point and West LA

(42:48) - World War III Threat Analysis

(43:19) - Iran's Strategic Moves

(44:31) - Empirical Evidence and Predictions

(48:18) - Iran's Retaliation and US Response

(55:20) - Trump's Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World

(01:16:30) - Global Stability and Instability

(01:20:05) - NBA Trade and Game 7 Predictions

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:48) - Setting the Scene: Current Geopolitical Climate

(01:12) - Israel-Iran Tensions and MAGA Camp Dynamics

(04:59) - Debating Regime Change and Airstrikes

(11:04) - Historical Context: Lessons from Serbia

(16:10) - Potential Scenarios for Iran's Future

(27:11) - US Politics and Foreign Policy Implications

(35:21) - Comparing the Iran-Iraq War to Current Conflicts

(35:37) - The Dynamics of the Iran-Iraq War

(37:44) - Potential Global Repercussions

(39:58) - The Myth of the China Block

(41:13) - The Role of the US and Its Allies

(42:21) - The Impact on Global Markets

(45:02) - Technological Advancements in Warfare

(47:53) - The Need for a New Global Congress

(59:02) - Historical Precedents for Global Cooperation

(01:08:06) - The Decline of International Law

(01:08:16) - Charismatic Authority in Foreign Policy

(01:08:59) - Institutions vs. Concerts

(01:10:01) - The Role of the United Nations

(01:10:51) - The Concert of Europe Concept

(01:11:14) - Challenges of Charismatic Authority

(01:11:51) - Legitimacy and Spheres of Influence

(01:13:55) - Historical Context and Modern Implications

(01:16:17) - The Need for a New Global Order

(01:21:39) - Hypothetical Scenarios and Real-World Applications

(01:29:14) - Breaking News and Current Events

(01:37:56) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Speculations

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic react in real time to Israel’s stunning military strikes on Iran. With key nuclear sites hit and top Iranian commanders killed, the cousins break down what this means for Iran’s capacity to retaliate, the role (or lack thereof) of U.S. strategy, and why Saudi Arabia’s response might be the most important of all. They explore the domestic politics behind Netanyahu’s actions, whether regime change is possible, and why oil markets barely flinched. A wide-ranging, unscripted conversation during a rapidly unfolding moment in Middle Eastern—and global—geopolitics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:27) - Initial Reactions and Context

(01:22) - Details of the Israel-Iran Conflict

(03:45) - Analysis of Military Actions

(08:11) - Geopolitical Implications

(17:48) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations

(32:52) - Civil War and Japan's Example

(33:25) - NATO's Campaign Against Serbia

(34:13) - Israel's Military Capabilities

(36:45) - US Options and Iran's Response

(38:46) - Conspiracy Theories and South Park

(41:36) - Iran's Limited Retaliation Options

(44:38) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook

(56:34) - Closing Thoughts on Multipolarity

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-driving cars.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:32) - Los Angeles in Turmoil

(04:38) - Media's Role in the Crisis

(10:14) - Immigration and Policy Debate

(16:33) - Federal vs. State Authority

(34:00) - Economic and Trade Implications

(43:34) - Populism and Political Strategy

(44:29) - Populist Policies and Economic Impact

(46:08) - Immigration Policies and Political Shifts

(47:04) - Italy's Political Landscape and Georgia Maloney

(50:16) - US-China Trade Relations and Economic Strategies

(52:28) - Immigration and US Demographics

(01:16:41) - California Secession and US Political Polarization

(01:32:48) - Future Topics

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko tears into the political class’s inability to talk about industrial policy without veering into Cold War nostalgia. He and Jacob unpack why tariffs are back—not as economic tools, but as cultural signals. Marko argues that globalization was always a political project, and it’s unraveling just as planned. From American washing machines to European defense contracts, the cousins trace how manufacturing, war, and narrative-building collide. Jacob tries to keep things historical; Marko’s too busy declaring the return of geoeconomics. Also: French nukes, German industry, and why the U.S. needs a better plan than “make things somewhere else.”

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction and Episode Overview

(00:11) Welcoming New Listeners

(00:18) Debate on Globalization and Tariffs

(00:57) Listener Feedback and Engagement

(01:54) Marco's Haircut Story

(02:41) Purpose of the Podcast

(10:31) Debate on Tariffs and Globalization

(41:21) The Decline of American Car Manufacturing

(42:29) The Washing Machine Revolution

(43:07) The Impact of Tariffs on Innovation

(43:38) Debating Historical Trade Policies

(46:14) The Role of Industrial Capacity in War

(49:06) Globalization and Redistribution of Wealth

(54:05) The 2008 Financial Crisis and Corporate Bailouts

(56:13) The Future of Manufacturing and War

(59:27) The Reality of War Footing and Defense Spending

(01:08:22) The Ideological Debate on Globalization

(01:14:05) Reflecting on Historical Conflicts with China

(01:14:28) Proxy Wars and America's Capabilities

(01:15:05) US-China Relations and Economic Strategies

(01:17:41) Technological Advancements and National Security

(01:30:30) The Future of Warfare and Global Power Dynamics

(01:30:53) Operation Spiderweb: Ukraine's Drone Attack on Russia

(01:33:35) Implications of Drone Warfare on Global Security

(01:39:12) The Evolution of Warfare and the Role of Technology

(01:45:58) The Future of Nation States in a Technologically Advanced World

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Referenced in the Show:

Why Ukraine War's Deadly Drones Are Now Flying By 12-Mile-Long ‘Wires' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLA_qgl2YYs&t=822s

Why This Russian Drone Developer Isn’t Impressed by U.S. Tech - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfNUM2CbbM&t=865s

Geopolitics of Dune – https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-geopolitics-of-dune/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at...

Marko kicks off this week’s episode with a takedown of Middle East punditry, arguing that Biden’s calm, calculated response to Iran’s attack on Israel is exactly what stability looks like in a multipolar world. While Jacob frets over deterrence and mixed signals, Marko doubles down: ambiguity is the new clarity. They unpack India’s chaotic yet predictable election, game out what a third Modi term could mean for trade and alliances, and roll their eyes at the latest BRICS buzz. Also: Taylor Swift’s soft power, Saudi predictability, and why global order now runs on vibes, oil, and opportunism.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:48) - Early Morning Dedication and Strategist Life

(01:38) - Father Moses and the Rise of Manliness

(04:12) - Orthodox Christianity Explained

(06:14) - Russian Orthodox Church and Geopolitical Influence

(11:04) - Cultural Shifts and Masculinity Crisis

(15:23) - Debating Modern Masculinity and Education

(17:42) - Political and Social Commentary

(22:44) - Climate Change and Policy Critique

(27:30) - The Role of Media and Public Figures

(42:14) - Personal Stories and Reflections

(46:44) - Toxic Masculinity and the Cornell Glee Club

(47:08) - Russia's Offensive Immigration Policy

(48:08) - The West's Immigration Strategy

(50:57) - Impact of Immigration Policies on Education

(56:20) - US Deficit and Fiscal Policies

(01:28:59) - NBA Finals and Geopolitical Implications