The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.
  • Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.
  • Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.

• RESOURCE:
  • "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026).
  • "Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026).
  • "Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000).
  • "The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945).

• EXTRAS:
  • "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).
  • "How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).
  • "The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

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He was thriving in the N.F.L., but then he decided to focus on mathematics — a subject he now teaches at M.I.T. John walks Stephen Dubner through the whole story, teaches him some blocking techniques, and explains why some infinities are bigger than others.

If you'd like to see the video version of Better in Person, you can watch it on YouTube or Apple Podcasts.

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For decades, teams have tried (and mostly failed) to predict which college quarterbacks will thrive in the pros. Is the science finally catching up? Stephen Dubner speaks with a scout, a psychologist, a data warrior, and a Hall of Fame quarterback who nobody wanted.

• SOURCES:
  • Scott Goldman, sports psychologist, owner of the Athletic Intelligence Quotient.
  • Dan Hatman, director of scouting development at the Scouting Academy.
  • Stephen Smith, founder and C.E.O. of Kitman Labs.
  • Kurt Warner, Hall-of-Fame quarterback, N.F.L. Network analyst.

• RESOURCES:
  • "Head in the game: the impact of cognitive abilities on performance of National Football League quarterbacks," by R. Thomas Boone, Nicholas Zambrotta, Andrew Manocchio, and James Bowman (Frontiers in Psychology, 2025).
  • "The Quarterback Prediction Problem: Forecasting the Performance of College Quarterbacks Selected in the NFL Draft," by Julian Wolfson, Vittorio Addona, Robert Schmicker (Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2011).

• EXTRAS:
  • "The Merger You Never Knew You Wanted," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).
  • "The Rooney Rule," series by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

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