687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?
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687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?
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著者：
The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)
- SOURCES:
- Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.
- Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.
- Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.
- RESOURCE:
- "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026).
- "Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026).
- "Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000).
- "The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945).
- EXTRAS:
- "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).
- "How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).
- "The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).
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