『Deep Dive 11/3/2025』のカバーアート

Deep Dive 11/3/2025

Deep Dive 11/3/2025

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 Executive SummaryThe Bitcoin market is currently defined by a significant divergence between deteriorating short-term technicals and strengthening long-term fundamental pillars. Over the last 24 hours, the price has experienced a technically-induced breakdown, breaching its 200-day moving average and triggering over $420 million in long liquidations. This move was amplified by a public short thesis from veteran trader Peter Brandt, creating a negative feedback loop and pushing market sentiment toward fear.In direct contrast to this price weakness, the digital asset ecosystem’s foundational layers have seen profound validation. Bitcoin miner Cipher Mining secured a landmark 15-year, $5.5 billion data center lease with Amazon Web Services to power AI workloads, providing concrete evidence of the industry’s pivot to a more stable, high-value infrastructure model. This structural maturation is mirrored in the global regulatory landscape, where major financial centers in Europe and Hong Kong are advancing policies to create more efficient, integrated, and competitive markets designed to attract institutional capital.The conclusion is that the market is experiencing a tactical retreat within a strategic advance. While immediate price action is dictated by leveraged traders and technical signals, the underlying infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are being built to support future, large-scale adoption. The current environment is therefore precarious for short-term participants, but the fundamental news flow has been highly constructive for the long-term investment thesis.Price & Market Analysis: A Bearish Structural BreakdownThe market’s technical posture has shifted decisively to bearish following a wave of selling that broke key support levels and flushed leverage from the system. This has established new resistance zones and a clear downward bias that will require significant buying pressure to reverse.The Liquidation CascadeA weekend rally to the $111,000 level was rejected, with selling pressure pushing Bitcoin’s price down to approximately 107,828,a24−hourdeclineofroughly2.3420 million in leveraged long positions liquidated** in the past 24 hours. Some data sources report total liquidations reaching as high as $536 million. This cascade of forced selling amplified the downward price movement. The broader crypto market capitalization fell from over $4 trillion to approximately $3.61 trillion, with major altcoins declining by 4% to 6%.Peter Brandt’s “Megaphone” ThesisAdding to the bearish sentiment, veteran commodities trader Peter Brandt publicly disclosed a short position in Bitcoin futures. His analysis is based on the formation of a “megaphone” or “broadening top” pattern on the daily chart. This pattern, characterized by widening price swings with higher highs and lower lows, signals growing volatility and is often interpreted as a topping formation preceding a decline. Brandt drew a historical parallel to a similar pattern in the 1977 soybean market that was followed by a 50% collapse. The public dissemination of this thesis from a respected analyst has provided technical justification for the sell-off, creating a negative feedback loop where mechanical selling is reinforced by discretionary, narrative-driven trading.Key Technical LevelsThe most significant technical development was the breach of the 200-day moving average, previously a support level around $109,000. This long-term trend indicator now acts as the first line of resistance. The price is currently testing a critical support zone near $106,000. A failure to hold this level on a daily closing basis would likely open a path to the next major institutional demand block between $100,000 and $102,000.Resistance ~$114,000 - $116,000 Major supply zone; a break above is required to restore a bullish structure.Resistance ~$109,000 The 200-day Moving Average, a critical long-term indicator, now acts as the first line of resistance.Pivot / Current Price ~$107,800 The current trading level as the market attempts to find a floor after the recent sell-off.Support ~$106,000 Immediate and critical support, aligning with a 4-hour ascending wedge pattern’s lower trendline.Support ~$100,000 - $102,000 The next major structural and institutional demand zone if the ~$106,000 support level fails.Capital Flows & On-Chain Intelligence: A Demand VacuumOn-chain data reveals a market that is healthy at its core but weak at the margins, suffering from a deficit in new spot demand that has left it vulnerable to selling pressure.• Cooling Institutional Demand: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $799 million for the prior week, marking a reversal from previous inflows. This shift indicates a cooling of institutional appetite and the removal of a key pillar of price support.• Weakness at the Margin: Analytics firm Glassnode identifies the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis around $113,000. With the price below this...
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