『Deep Dive 10/31/2025』のカバーアート

Deep Dive 10/31/2025

Deep Dive 10/31/2025

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 Executive SummaryThe digital asset market is navigating a period of pronounced divergence between short-term price action and long-term fundamental strength. Bitcoin’s price has experienced a pullback, driven by institutional de-risking following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent policy guidance. This macro-driven weakness is evidenced by two consecutive days of significant net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling nearly $1 billion. The asset is currently testing key support levels as its correlation with traditional risk assets like the Nasdaq reaches its highest point since June. The central theme of the current market is this tension: while institutional capital flows react to global liquidity conditions, the underlying financial infrastructure, sector dynamics, and regulatory framework are simultaneously maturing and strengthening.Market Dynamics and Price AnalysisMacro-Driven Pullback and Key Technical LevelsOver the last 24 hours, the digital asset market has continued a decline initiated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. This “sell-the-news” reaction saw Bitcoin’s price dip below $107,000, where it found support near the miner cost basis of approximately $106,400 before recovering to stabilize around $109,000. This price action is part of a broader market de-risking, with the global cryptocurrency market capitalization falling by 2.03% to $3.67 trillion and major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana experiencing drops of over 4%. The market’s heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic sentiment is underscored by the correlation between crypto and the Nasdaq, which has risen to a high of 0.88.Momentum indicators are mixed; the daily RSI is neutral at 46.8, but the Stochastic oscillator is in “overbought” territory, suggesting the recent recovery may be fragile without a significant shift in sentiment.Institutional De-Risking and ETF OutflowsInstitutional sentiment has tilted decisively risk-off, as reflected in capital flows for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds recorded substantial net outflows for a second consecutive day:• Thursday, October 30: $488.4 million net outflow.• Wednesday, October 29: $470 million net outflow.These outflows have reduced the cumulative net inflows for all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since inception to approximately $60.5 billion. This reversal is a direct consequence of the market’s interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s policy. While the Fed delivered a rate cut, its forward guidance signaled that further monetary easing is not imminent. This caused a repricing of future liquidity expectations, leading to a risk-off move across equities and a stronger U.S. dollar. Institutional portfolio managers, who use ETFs for their Bitcoin exposure, systematically reduced allocations to risk assets, manifesting as coordinated outflows from the funds and contributing directly to downward price pressure on Bitcoin.Corporate Performance and Infrastructure MaturationQ3 Earnings Highlights: Coinbase and CboeThe third-quarter earnings season has validated the business models of regulated, institutional-grade infrastructure providers.• Coinbase (COIN): The company delivered a strong earnings report, surpassing consensus estimates. It reported Q3 revenue of approximately 1.9billion∗∗andEPSof∗∗1.44. This performance was fueled by a 37% quarter-over-quarter increase in transaction revenue to $1.0 billion, supported by a 24% rise in total trading volume to $295 billion. A notable trend was the rotation of activity toward Ethereum, which accounted for 22% of total volume (up from 15% in Q2). Coinbase also continued its treasury strategy, adding 2,772 BTC to its balance sheet.• Cboe Global Markets (CBOE): The exchange operator reported strong Q3 revenue, driven by a 15% year-over-year increase in derivatives net revenue. This growth highlights robust institutional demand for regulated crypto derivatives products for risk management purposes.Diverging Fortunes of Bitcoin-Exposed CompaniesIn contrast to infrastructure builders, publicly traded companies whose primary strategy is holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet are facing market headwinds.• Strategy Inc. (MSTR): While reporting a Q3 net income of $2.8 billion due to accounting treatments, the company saw the premium of its market capitalization relative to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings (mNAV) fall to an 18-month low.• Metaplanet (3350.T): The Japanese firm’s stock fell approximately 5% after it announced a ¥75 billion (~$500 million) share buyback program, funded by a BTC-backed credit facility. This move was an attempt to support its share price after its mNAV slipped below 1.0x, indicating its market value is less than its Bitcoin holdings.This divergence signals a market maturation, where investors are increasingly ascribing value to the companies building the functional financial system for digital assets rather than to passive proxy exposures, which are ...
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