In this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates, Shimon Shkury sits down with Kenny Burgos, CEO of the New York Apartment Association, to discuss the current state of New York City’s multifamily housing market and the growing challenges facing the rent-stabilized sector.

The conversation takes a deep dive into the long-term effects of the 2019 Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act (HSTPA), including vacancy control, rising operating costs, capital constraints, declining valuations, and affordability pressures across the city’s housing stock.

Together, they explore how policy changes, economic vacancy, and structural market constraints are reshaping investment activity, asset performance, and financing conditions for rent-stabilized housing in New York City — and what it may take to restore long-term stability and investment viability.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors; Victor Sozio, Founding Partner; and Matthew Dzbanek, Senior Director in the Capital Services Group, take a deep dive into New York City’s multifamily market on this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates. They discuss key trends from Ariel Property Advisors’ Q1 2026 Multifamily Quarter in Review New York City, and what to expect for the remainder of the year.

Highlights from the podcast include:

• The NYC multifamily market recorded approximately $2.4 billion in transaction volume in Q1 2026, up 7% year-over-year, reflecting sustained investor activity despite a bifurcated market.
• Free market assets continued to drive momentum, supported by rising rents and strong investor demand, while rent-stabilized properties faced ongoing pressure from expenses, regulatory constraints, and NOI erosion.
• The rent-stabilized segment saw notable activity, including distressed transactions, as owners and lenders increasingly worked toward restructurings and pragmatic solutions.
• Affordable housing remained steady, with private capital increasingly stepping into existing structures and sophisticated investors targeting long-term value opportunities.
• Lending activity remained active for well-located free market assets, while capital availability for stabilized assets remained more selective, with lenders focused on collections, violations, and overall asset quality.
• Construction and development financing continued to attract strong interest, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and growing appetite for new rental and condo projects.
  Overall, liquidity and investor engagement are expected to remain strong as both buyers and lenders continue to meet the market in 2026.

Access the full report here: https://arielpa.com/report/report-MFQIR-Q1-2026#overview

In the latest Coffee & Cap Rates podcast, Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Jason Gold, Senior Director, and Daniel Mahfar, Director, discuss multifamily and development market trends in the Bronx as reported in Ariel’s Bronx 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

Highlights from the podcast and report include:

• The Bronx real estate market reached $1.8 billion in 2025, a 46% year-over-year increase, with multifamily dollar volume rising 66% and development up 26%.
• The average price per unit for multifamily units hit a 7-year low of $105,000, influenced by high interest rates, increased expenses, including insurance and taxes, and anticipated rent freezes for stabilized buildings.
• Multifamily pricing is expected to remain at a decade-plus low, attracting local owners seeking a low basis relative to the rest of the country.
• Development activity is forecast to continue an upward trend due to investors’ increased familiarity with the 485x tax abatement and "City of Yes" regulations.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors; Michael A. Tortorici, Founding Partner; Christoffer Brodhead, Senior Director; and Howard Raber, Director, take a deep dive into Manhattan’s investment sales market on this episode of Coffee & Cap Rates. They discussed trends in Ariel Property Advisors’ Manhattan 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report and what to expect in 2026.

Highlights from the podcast include:

• Manhattan’s transactional dollar volume reached $22.77 billion in 2025, signaling strong investor confidence and positive growth trends across development, multifamily and office sectors.
• Driven by limited inventory and a high-performing condo market, development site sales totaled nearly $4 billion with pricing jumping 11% to $468 per buildable square foot—the highest level recorded since 2021.
• Accounting for 50% of Manhattan’s total dollar volume ($11.3 billion), the office market was fueled by high-value Class A transactions and a growing trend of Class B and C assets being repositioned for residential or boutique office use.
• Investors showed a clear preference for free market multifamily properties, which represented 84% of total multifamily dollar volume, as investors looked to capitalize on free market assets currently trading 18% below their 2017 peaks.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Sean R. Kelly, Esq., Partner, and Stephen Vorvolakos, Director, discuss trends in Brooklyn’s commercial real estate market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Brooklyn 2025 Year-End Commercial Real Estate Trends report.

Highlights from the report include:

• Brooklyn closed 2025 with $6.66 billion in total commercial real estate sales across 951 transactions, reflecting an 8% decline in dollar volume and 2% increase in transactions compared to 2024.
• The development market rallied in 2025 with 172 transactions totaling $1.8 billion, an increase of 25% and 41%, respectively, compared to 2024.
• Multifamily dollar volume dipped 3% year over year to $3.47 billion while transactions rose 7% to 582.
• Brooklyn retail saw 76 transactions totaling $523 million, representing decreases of 10% and 17%, respectively, compared to 2024. Boroughwide, transaction activity was largely driven by smaller, mom-and-pop retail sales.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, Victor Sozio, Founding Partner, and Matt Swerdlow, Senior Director in the Capital Services Group, discuss New York City’s multifamily market and the findings of Ariel Property Advisors’ Multifamily Year In Review New York City 2025.

Highlights include:

• Total dollar volume was relatively unchanged year-over-year, totaling $8.91 billion in 2025 compared to $9.1 billion in 2024.
• Free market buildings led multifamily sales citywide, accounting for 66% of dollar volume and 48% of transactions. Rent stabilized assets followed in deal frequency (47%) but trailed in value (20%), while affordable housing rounded out the market with 13% of the volume and 6% of transactions.
• Capital rewarded free-market housing with rising valuations, affordable housing remained active through strong public-private alignment and rent-stabilized assets traded at steep discounts as NOI eroded under policy and cost pressures.
• The rent-stabilized sector continued to grapple with regulations, rising costs and mortgage maturities at higher rates.
• Many banks are focusing on free market transactions, office transactions, retail transactions, and assets that aren’t regulated.
• The multifamily market will see increased liquidity in 2026 as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will each have $88 billion to lend for a total of $176 billion.

To celebrate 15 years of Ariel Property Advisors, President & Founder Shimon Shkury sits down with Roxanne Donovan, President of Great Ink, for an exclusive conversation about the firm’s journey in New York City’s commercial real estate market.

From its founding in 2011 to growing into a 65-person team united by shared values and collaboration, Ariel has evaluated, sold, and financed billions of dollars of real estate in NYC while arranging financing for clients nationwide.

Listen to the episode to hear reflections on the past 15 years, the story of Ariel’s growth, its core values, the advisory-first approach, and more!

For more information about Ariel’s accomplishments, read the 2025 Annual Report.

Shimon Shkury, President and Founder of Ariel Property Advisors, provides an in-depth overview of New York City’s office, development, and multifamily markets. This presentation, “Behind the Sales: What’s Fueling Investment in NYC Real Estate?”, was delivered at the NYC Real Estate Expo on October 28, 2025, at the New York Marriott Marquis.

Listen to the presentation on this podcast and click here to access the slides.