『Cocoa Crunch: Grindings Down, Prices Rebound, Surplus Ahead?』のカバーアート

Cocoa Crunch: Grindings Down, Prices Rebound, Surplus Ahead?

Cocoa Crunch: Grindings Down, Prices Rebound, Surplus Ahead?

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This is your Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker, I am your host Vanessa Clark. Today is Tuesday, October twenty-first, and as always, I am here to bring you the essential updates on the cocoa market, the latest commodity prices, and what recent moves might mean for anyone keeping an eye on this surprisingly dynamic crop.

Let’s start with today’s numbers. Cocoa futures have been trying to recover after a tough two-month stretch that saw prices tumble to their lowest point in nearly twenty months. On the Intercontinental Exchange, the December cocoa contract is currently trading just under six thousand dollars per ton. That is still a long way from the peaks we saw earlier this year, but a small rebound is underway as the market digests new global supply and demand signals.

Now, what is going on behind these price swings? The biggest driver this week has been weak grinding data out of Asia and Europe. The Cocoa Association of Asia reported that third quarter cocoa grindings dropped seventeen percent compared to last year, the lowest level in nine years. In Europe, grindings were also down almost five percent—the lowest third quarter figure in a decade. This suggests that demand for cocoa beans may be cooling off, possibly because the earlier price spike made chocolate and cocoa products more expensive on store shelves.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. North America provided a surprise, with grindings actually rising over three percent year over year. That means more cocoa is being processed into products like chocolate, which could help support prices if North American demand holds up.

Supply side news also matters, and here the story gets interesting. Ivory Coast farmers, responsible for the bulk of the world’s cocoa, reported a thirty-one percent drop in bean shipments so far this fresh harvest season compared to last year. Port data shows just over one hundred thirty-three thousand metric tons exported between October first and nineteenth. Reduced exports from the world’s number one producer can signal tightening supply, offering underlying support for prices.

Meanwhile, the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together provide most of the world’s cocoa, have raised the minimum prices paid to their farmers this season. The goal is to encourage more supply and support farmer incomes, but whenever higher farmgate prices arrive, it takes a while for those changes to work through the supply chain.

There are also global weather factors to consider. Heavy rains are complicating transport for producers in places like Cameroon, where local prices remain well below government targets because of difficult road conditions. Looking ahead, experts expect a global cocoa surplus in the coming season. The International Cocoa Organization is now forecasting a seven point eight percent increase in global cocoa production for the twenty twenty-five harvest, and the possibility of a surplus for the first time in four years. If those crop prospects pan out, the pressure on prices may persist—especially if consumer demand continues to waiver after the price spikes of early twenty twenty-five.

If you are wondering about actionable takeaways, here are a few. If you are in the chocolate business, keep an eye on grind data each quarter, as it remains one of the best indicators of demand shifts. If you are a trader, watch for short covering rallies as speculative funds remain heavily net short—meaning sudden upward moves remain a risk if export slowdowns or weather setbacks tighten the market unexpectedly. For consumers, if you noticed the cost of chocolate rise recently, relief could be on the way if larger harvests and stabilized supply are realized over the next several months.

That will do it for today’s Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, and I hope you found today’s updates helpful. Be sure to subscribe, share us with your friends, and tune in next time for more insights you can count on. Thanks for listening and talk to you soon.

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