Climate change has amplified the hydrologic cycle in Minnesota. Our more erratic precipitation patterns are driving faster transitions from drought to floods. So, can AI-driven forecasts help predict floods on rivers like the Mississippi?

“We need to make innovations in these sorts of models and in our flood forecasting in general,” said Zac McEachran, a research hydrologist from the University of Minnesota.

McEachran talked with MPR News meteorologist Paul Huttner about a new flood forecasting model that uses AI to improve local flood predictions.

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Weather data suggests Minnesota has warmed more than three degrees in the past 150 years, and the state’s winters have warmed more than five degrees since 1970.

So how are Minnesotans seeing and feeling these climate changes?

“Here in Minnesota, we are experiencing climate change predominantly in the winter,” said Kristoffer Tigue, a reporter for the Minnesota Star Tribune.

“We base a lot of our culture around our winters, and so to have our winters being the season that's changing the most, I think it tells a narrative of the direction we’re going as a state.”

Tigue explained that the state is experiencing warmer winters, an increase in precipitation and melting. Tigue wrote about the many ways Minnesotans are seeing climate change — from warmer falls, to a lack of foliage color and wildfire smoke.

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Minnesota winters are not what they used to be.

The bone-chilling season has warmed more than 5 degrees on average since 1970. Those warmer temps have contributed to another weather phenomenon: more snow — even if it doesn’t seem that way.

How do we explain that paradox? Climatologist Kenneth Blumenfeld tracks snowfall trends for the Minnesota State Climate Office. He explained the connection between snowfall rates and higher global temperatures on Climate Cast.

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