Admiral Mike Rogers joins hosts Nathan Kiker and George Bogden to assess how cyber deterrence, disinformation, and rapid advances in AI are reshaping strategic competition. Rogers argues that the United States’ most consequential vulnerability is domestic: deep polarization that blocks consensus on hard problems—public debt, social programs, and technology governance—making solutions more costly the longer they’re deferred. The result is a political system struggling to keep pace with a security environment defined by speed, interdependence, and information manipulation.

Rogers contends that credible cyber deterrence remains elusive. Adversaries still view peacetime cyber operations and influence campaigns as low-cost, low-risk tools to impose friction on the United States and its allies. He calls for a broader, risk-informed menu of response options—some signaled publicly—to shift adversary cost-benefit calculations, backed by consistent attribution and the capacity to impose costs across domains.

The conversation examines critical infrastructure exposure in an era of dense interconnection and fragile dependencies, from power grids and ports to finance, communications, and GPS/PNT. Despite notable improvements since NotPetya and Colonial Pipeline, Rogers warns that complexity creates hidden failure modes that demand anticipatory standards, cross-sector exercises, and sharper prioritization of high-impact, high-probability risks.

On AI, Rogers separates hype from operational reality. He highlights the true costs of development and deployment, the likelihood of a tiered model ecosystem rather than a frontier-model default, and the regulatory lag behind private-sector innovation—especially as China and Russia pursue state-driven approaches. His near-term worry is less a technical catastrophe than a breakdown in societal cohesion catalyzed by technology; his optimism comes from motivated innovators building guardrails and tools that strengthen, rather than corrode, open societies.

00:00 Introduction to Admiral Mike Rogers
00:32 America's Biggest National Security Challenge
06:24 Global Threats Beyond U.S. Politics
08:19 AI, Emerging Technology & Government Regulation
10:09 China's Artificial Intelligence Strategy
17:04 How China Could Attack America's Infrastructure
22:34 Why Governments Struggle to Assess Risk
25:07 America's Offensive Cyber Capabilities
28:58 Should the U.S. Be More Aggressive in Cyberspace?
34:20 Why Cyber Deterrence Is Failing
38:52 The One Scenario That Worries Mike Rogers Most
42:04 Why Technology Still Gives Him Hope

About the Guest

Admiral Mike Rogers is the former Director of the National Security Agency and Commander of U.S. Cyber Command (2014–2018). A retired four-star U.S. Navy officer, he previously led U.S. Fleet Cyber Command/Tenth Fleet and brings decades of experience at the intersection of signals intelligence, cyber operations, and national security strategy.

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Julian Zelizer joins Nathan Kiker and George Bogden to assess how polarization and party dynamics have reshaped U.S. governance—and why that matters for foreign policy, markets, and national security. He argues that political parties are indispensable institutions that organize interests and enable collective decision-making, but warns that key guardrails and leadership norms have eroded since the 1990s. The result is a Congress more prone to procedural hardball and performative conflict, with downstream effects on deterrence credibility, budget stability, and the steadiness of U.S. strategy.

Zelizer traces a pivotal shift to Newt Gingrich’s ascent, which normalized a confrontational style that weaponized procedure and treated political opponents as illegitimate. Combined with narrow, shifting majorities and social media incentives, these dynamics reward zero-sum tactics over governing. The consequence is a legislature less able to absorb disagreement, negotiate tradeoffs, and deliver predictable policy—conditions that allies, adversaries, and businesses now price into their decisions.

He also charts the long arc of the “imperial presidency,” noting that executive power has expanded for decades across parties. Yet Congress retains real leverage: the power of the purse, oversight, and statute remain decisive tools. Zelizer highlights the 1970s as proof that institutional renewal is possible, pointing to reforms on budgeting, ethics, disclosure, and impoundment limits, and offering a sober assessment of the War Powers Resolution’s mixed record.

Looking ahead, Zelizer outlines practical steps to rebuild capacity: reestablish guardrails, strengthen committee work and regular order, and better connect party organizations to voters. For policymakers, investors, and security professionals, the message is clear: institutional design and leadership incentives are strategic variables that shape U.S. reliability, crisis response, and long-term competitiveness.

• Why parties are essential to American democracy—and how frayed leadership norms since the 1990s shifted incentives from governing to procedural combat.
• The Gingrich-era revolution: weaponized oversight, agenda control, and scorched-earth tactics that redefined congressional power and political culture.
• The rise of the imperial presidency and how Congress can still reassert authority through budgets, oversight, and targeted statutory reform.
• War Powers, authorizations for use of force, and the practical constraints Congress faces when presidents act quickly in crises.
• Paths to renewal: restoring guardrails, rewarding substantive legislating over performative politics, and engaging a new generation of public servants.

Julian E. Zelizer is a leading historian of American politics and Congress, serving as the Malcolm Stevenson Forbes, Class of 1941 Professor of History and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He is the author and editor of numerous books on U.S. governance, including Burning Down the House: Newt Gingrich, the Fall of a Speaker, and the Rise of the New Republican Party, and is a frequent analyst on the presidency, party politics, and institutional reform.

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Bojan Pancevski, Chief European Political Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of The Nord Stream Conspiracy, unpacks the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines and its far‑reaching strategic consequences. The episode centers on attribution, tradecraft, and the emerging legal case in Germany—an unusually clear window into how a small clandestine team can generate outsized geopolitical effects by targeting critical undersea infrastructure.

Nathan Kiker and George Bogdan press Pancevski on “Operation Diameter,” a plan conceived within a Ukrainian special operations unit but executed by civilian deep‑sea divers with limited clandestine training at 80–100 meters in the Baltic. He traces the recruitment pipeline, rapid training, and a chain of approval that ran through General Valery Zaluzhny, alongside the unresolved question of what, if anything, reached President Zelensky. The result, he argues, was an audacious, low‑budget mission that struck at the heart of Europe’s energy map in 2022.

The conversation then turns to the German federal prosecutor’s decision to pursue war‑crimes charges—an attempt to bypass combatant immunity (the legal protection afforded to lawful combatants) by arguing the target was German infrastructure and the operatives were out of uniform. Pancevski outlines how this approach collides with politics in Berlin and Kyiv, intersecting with Germany’s energy strategy, the legacy of Angela Merkel’s Nord Stream policy, and live parliamentary debates.

Finally, the episode situates Nord Stream within U.S.–European dynamics, from CIA warnings to the Biden administration’s stance on Nord Stream 2, and distills the strategic lesson: modern undersea networks—pipelines, power interconnectors, data cables—are acutely vulnerable to low‑cost attacks. With a Hamburg trial on the horizon, the case could set legal precedent, strain alliances, and reshape how states plan covert action and defend seabed infrastructure.

• How “Operation Diameter” combined military planning with a civilian dive team to execute a complex, deep‑water sabotage on a minimal budget—and what that reveals about modern covert tradecraft.
• The command architecture behind the operation, including approval attributed to General Valery Zaluzhny and the ongoing dispute over presidential awareness in Kyiv.
• Germany’s prosecutorial strategy to pursue war‑crimes charges by challenging combatant immunity due to non‑uniformed operatives and damage to German infrastructure, and the political risk this creates.
• Berlin’s domestic cross‑pressures: energy security after Nord Stream, Merkel’s legacy, Bundestag debates, and how parties frame accountability and deterrence.
• Strategic implications for the protection of undersea infrastructure, deterrence signaling, escalation risks, and U.S.–European coordination amid CIA warnings and the Biden administration’s Nord Stream 2 posture.

• 00:00 – Why Nord Stream matters: strategic leverage, energy, and alliance politics
• 03:45 – Inside “Operation Diameter”: planning, recruitment, and deep‑water tradecraft
• 12:30 – Chain of command: Zaluzhny’s role and the Zelensky question
• 18:50 – Germany’s legal gambit: war‑crimes theory vs. combatant immunity
• 25:40 – Berlin’s political calculus: energy strategy, Merkel’s legacy, and Bundestag debate
• 32:15 – The U.S. angle: CIA warnings, sanctions policy, and transatlantic diplomacy
• 38:40 – Seabed vulnerability: pipelines, cables, and the deterrence challenge
• 44:20 – The Hamburg trial: evidentiary hurdles and alliance implications
• 49:10 – Did the sabotage achieve its aims? Russia’s repair/reopen push and narratives
• 53:00 – Policy takeaways: hardening infrastructure and shaping future covert action norms

Bojan Pancevski is the Chief European Political Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and the author of The Nord Stream Conspiracy. He reports on European politics, security, and transatlantic affairs, with a track record of breaking stories at the intersection of intelligence, law, and statecraft.

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