Tuesday morning FOMC decision day analysis for global institutional real estate capital positioning ahead of central bank divergence opportunities. **Global Central Bank Divergence:** Federal Reserve 93% probability 25bp cut to 4.00%-4.25% while ECB holds at 4.50% and BOJ maintains ultra-low rates. Currency-driven acquisition windows emerging for international capital with USD positioning creating cross-border opportunities. **Cross-Border Capital Acceleration:** Asia-Pacific investment doubled 116.7% YoY to $9.5B. International investors 28.4% of regional activity. North America projected 38% increase to $575B. Central/Eastern Europe surging 51% YoY with Slovakia up 315%. **Sovereign Wealth Fund Reallocation:** Real estate allocations declining to 7.3% from 9.2% in 2022. Infrastructure surpassing real estate at 8.1% for first time. Total SWF assets $13-14T. Middle Eastern funds controlling 54% of global deployment. **Global CMBS Intelligence:** Private-label issuance $59.55B H1 2025 (35% YoY increase, highest in 15+ years). SASB deals 75% of market. Delinquency 7.9% with $150.9B maturing 2025 creating refinancing opportunities. **Regional Performance:** EMEA moderate 6% growth with UK top cross-border destination. Asia-Pacific 13% increase excluding Greater China. Data centers 83% investment spike globally. **Sector Positioning:** Multifamily and industrial benefiting from lower financing costs globally. Office sector bifurcation with prime assets outperforming. Retail maintaining strength across regions. **Global Institutional Advantage:** Central bank divergence creating institutional arbitrage opportunities for pension funds and sovereign wealth funds positioning for cross-border deployment acceleration. Contact: capitaldesk@protonmail.com

Monday morning week-ahead positioning for institutional real estate capital ahead of the most consequential FOMC meeting of 2025. **Fed Watch:** 96% probability of 0.25% cut at September 16-17 FOMC. Federal funds rate positioned to move from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%. 10-year Treasury at 4.082% with new issues at 4.250%. Commercial mortgage rates starting at 5.08% positioned for compression. **CMBS Momentum:** Private-label issuance up 23.9% YoY through August. H1 2025 recorded $59.55B (highest mid-year total in 15+ years). SASB deals constituting 75% of market issuance. Delinquency rate climbed to 7.9% with $54.8B requiring servicer advances. **Global Investment Recovery:** Direct transaction activity $179B in Q2 2025 (14% YoY increase). H1 2025 volumes up 21% from H1 2024. Cross-border Asia-Pacific investment doubled 116.7% YoY to $9.5B. International investors 28.4% of Asia-Pacific activity. **SWF Reallocation:** Real estate allocations declined to 7.3% from 9.2% in 2022. Infrastructure allocations surpassed real estate at 8.1%. Total SWF assets $13-14T. Middle Eastern funds control 54% of global deployment. **Sector Positioning:** Multifamily most preferred (Q2 volume up 39.5% YoY). Industrial steady at $31.4B H1, prices firm at $129/sq ft. Office vacancy bottoming with 5% leasing increase projected. Retail at 15-year vacancy low of 4.8%. **Maturity Wall:** $957B in commercial mortgages maturing by end 2025. LTV ratios tightened to 65%-70% range. Investment sales surged 25% in H1 2025 to $182.4B. **Week-Ahead Advantage:** Strategic positioning for Fed easing cycle initiation and commercial real estate recovery acceleration. Contact: capitaldesk@protonmail.com

- Fed Watch: 92% probability of a 25 bps cut at the September 16–17 FOMC. 10-year UST ~4.04% near a five-month low; 5-year ~3.61%. Bank CRE rates ~5.70–6.22%; agency ~4.91–5.15%. - CMBS: Delinquency 7.29%; office ~11.7%. H1 2025 issuance at post-GFC highs, ~74–75% SASB. ~$150.9B 2025 maturity wall; ~23% office exposure. - Cap Rates: Stabilization continues. Industrial ~5.0%; Multifamily Class A ~4.74%; Office Class A ~8.4%; Data centers ~5.8%. - SWFs & Pensions: SWFs trimming direct real estate (~7.3%) while lifting infra (~8.1%) and private credit/real estate debt. Pension funds increasing REIT usage to 70% (2025). - Sectors: Office vacancy ~14.2% with flight-to-quality (NYC, DFW, Austin, Nashville, Miami). Industrial vacancy ~7.12% with 3PLs ~35% of leasing. Multifamily rent growth 1.5–2.6% for 2025; construction starts rolling over. Retail vacancy at 20-year lows; Miami ~2.8%. Positioning - Debt: Lock favorable coupons into the cut window; prioritize SASB-quality collateral. - Equity: Industrial/logistics and data centers for durable cash flows; selective Class A office only in absorption-positive submarkets; retail neighborhood centers with tight supply. - Capital Programs: Increase allocation to real estate debt strategies; stage dry powder for Q4–Q1 bid-ask normalization. Contact: capitaldesk@protonmail.com

Thursday morning, September 11th, ECB decision day, and while your competition waits for the announcement, we're delivering the decision-day global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital with the market-moving information. **ECB Decision Day Intelligence:** - Market consensus expecting hold at 2.0% deposit rate (66 out of 69 economists in Reuters poll) - Second consecutive pause after eight consecutive cuts since June 2024 - Inflation hovering around 2% target supporting pause, eurozone unemployment at 6.2% July - Potential December cut still on table with 28 economists predicting cut to 1.75% **Global Investment Recovery Intelligence:** - Global real estate investment projected 27% increase to $952B in 2025 - Cross-border capital flows up 21% globally with Asia Pacific leading 87% increase - Institutional investors raising market share to highest level since 2021 - US saw 26% rise in cross-border capital, UK top global destination for cross-border investment **CMBS Crisis Intelligence:** - Overall CMBS delinquency rate hit 7.29% August (sixth consecutive monthly increase) - Office sector reached all-time high 11.66% delinquency, up 62bp from July - Multifamily delinquencies at nine-year high 6.86%, more than doubled in past year - $150.9B CMBS maturing 2025 with $63.6B requiring refinancing at higher rates **Currency Decision Day Positioning:** - EUR/USD at 1.17 ahead of ECB decision, up 5.57% over 12 months - Fed rate cut 100% probability September 17 with potential 25-50bp reduction - USD Index at 97.8481 (down 3.30% over 12 months) on Fed easing expectations - Euro holding firm on improving Eurozone momentum and EU-US trade deal **Treasury Decision Day Intelligence:** - US 10-Year at 4.05-4.07% reaching five-month low after weak jobs data - 2-Year at 3.47-3.52% as markets price aggressive Fed easing - Bond rally driving yields lower with 10-Year down from nearly 5% earlier in year - Policy-sensitive yields declining on 100% Fed cut probability **Sector Decision Day Intelligence:** - Office sector facing structural challenges with remote work impact continuing - Industrial and multifamily showing resilience despite elevated vacancy rates - Data centers experiencing extraordinary growth from AI and cloud expansion - Retail fundamentals stable with low vacancy rates and healthy rent growth Thursday ECB decision day intelligence that positions institutional capital with market-moving information while others wait for announcements. Because in institutional real estate, decision-day positioning isn't optional - it's competitive advantage.

Wednesday morning, September 10th, and while your competition waits for tomorrow's ECB decision, we're delivering the pre-meeting global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital ahead of the curve. **Wednesday Pre-ECB Positioning:** - ECB September 11 meeting tomorrow with market consensus expecting hold at 2.0% deposit rate - Wait-and-see approach with potential cuts possibly deferred until December - Fed September 16-17 FOMC with 97% probability 25bp cut creating central bank divergence - French political uncertainty and inflation near 2% target supporting ECB pause **Global Investment Wednesday Intelligence:** - Global real estate investment recovery projected 27% increase to $952B in 2025 - North America leading growth 38% to $575B driven by Fed rate cuts - Institutions reducing CRE target allocations 10% average following 2023 underperformance - Investment activity projected 10% growth reaching $437B this year **Wednesday Refinancing Intelligence:** - $957B commercial mortgages maturing 2025 including $150.9B private-label CMBS - Nearly 63% of all US banks' CRE loans set to mature by year-end 2025 - Delinquency rates 7.2% July 2025 (up nearly 2pp from July 2024) - Office sector 11.0% delinquency July, loan modifications surging with "extend-and-pretend" tactics **CMBS Market Resurgence:** - Private-label CMBS issuance $59.55B H1 2025 (highest in 15+ years, up 35% YoY) - Full-year 2025 forecast $110B-$138B potentially reaching pre-GFC levels - SASB deals dominating issuance backed by trophy properties - Institutional capital active with private debt funds increasing market presence **Currency Wednesday Positioning:** - EUR/USD at 1.17085 ahead of ECB meeting (slight decrease but up over past week) - US 10-Year yield 4.08-4.09%, 30-Year eased to 4.73% - Dollar weakness on Fed cut expectations with 66bp easing expected this year - 10-Year forecast 4.06% end Q3, 4.00% in 12 months **Sector Wednesday Intelligence:** - Data Centers: 2.8% vacancy in primary markets, 21.3% FFO growth Q3 (top REIT performer), global investment $60B+ 2024 growing 20% by mid-2025 - Office: 20.4% vacancy Q1 record high but stabilization signs emerging, construction at 13-year low - Industrial: 7.5% vacancy, 1.7% rent growth, 8.0% FFO growth Q3, Miami-Dade/Minneapolis/Houston outperforming Wednesday intelligence that positions institutional capital ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision while others wait and react. Because in institutional real estate, pre-meeting positioning isn't optional - it's competitive advantage.

Tuesday morning, September 9th, and while your competition analyzes yesterday's news, we're delivering the current global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for today's advantage. **Tuesday Central Bank Positioning:** - Fed September 16-17 FOMC meeting with 89% probability 25bp cut after weak jobs data - ECB September 11 meeting expected hold at 2.0% deposit rate with only 1% cut probability - BOJ maintaining pause due to political transition following PM Ishiba resignation - Central bank divergence creating Tuesday arbitrage opportunities for institutional capital **Global Investment Intelligence:** - Global CRE market valued $6.22T in 2025, projected $8.29T by 2030 (5.91% CAGR) - Investment turnover projected 27% increase to $952B in 2025 - Private-label CMBS issuance surged 35% H1 2025 to $59.55B (highest since 2007) - Institutional investors re-engaging with market share at highest level since 2021 **Tuesday Refinancing Update:** - SASB deals accounting for 75% of all CMBS issuance in early 2025 - Delinquency rates 7.5% July for KBRA-rated private-label CMBS loans - Office sector remains primary driver of distress though bottoming-out phase may be near - 2025 could see nearly $120B CMBS deals (strongest year since 2007) **Currency Tuesday Positioning:** - EUR/USD at 1.1764 (up 6.75% over 12 months, strongest since late July) - USD Index at 97.4160 (down 4.16% over 12 months, near 7-week lows) - German bund yield fell to one-month low 2.638% - Broad dollar weakness as markets price Fed rate cut September 17 **Sector Tuesday Intelligence:** - Data Centers: 6.6% vacancy Q1 (down 2.1pp YoY), Northern Virginia 0.76% vacancy with 17.6% rent increases, $31.5B annualized construction spending - Industrial: 7.4% vacancy Q2 2025, rent growth slowed to 1.7% (lowest since 2012), sales surged past $33B H1 2025 - Multifamily: Most preferred asset class 2025, 2.2-2.6% rent growth forecast, vacancy expected 6.2-6.25% before stabilizing Tuesday intelligence that drives institutional decisions while others digest yesterday's data. Because in institutional real estate, current intelligence isn't optional - it's competitive advantage.

Monday morning, September 8th, and while your competition digests weekend news, we're delivering the week ahead global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for five days of advantage. **Week Ahead Central Bank Intelligence:** - Fed September 16-17 FOMC meeting with 25bp cut expected after weak August jobs data (22,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemployment) - ECB September 11 meeting holding at 2.0% deposit rate - second consecutive meeting without change - BOJ delaying rate hikes due to political uncertainty following PM Ishiba resignation - Central bank divergence creating week ahead arbitrage opportunities for institutional capital **Global Investment Flow Positioning:** - Global real estate investment projected $952B in 2025 (27% increase) - Cross-border activity up 21% over past year - Asia Pacific 87% increase in cross-border investment - North America fastest-growing region $575B (38% increase) - Europe showing 6% growth in EMEA cross-border activity **Week Ahead Refinancing Intelligence:** - $150.9B CMBS maturing 2025, $63.6B requiring refinancing - Office sector 23-24% of maturity volume with 11.7% delinquency all-time high - $23B in CMBS loans past maturity without resolution - significant "maturity drag" - Multifamily maturity wall peaking at $5.4B in October 2025 - Institutional "flight to quality" favoring SASB deals and trophy assets **Currency Week Ahead Positioning:** - USD declined 9.7% since beginning 2025, Euro strengthened 11.5% - Multi-year dollar decline anticipated with gains for euro, pound, yen, Canadian dollar - Emerging market currencies expected stronger performance - Political instability in France (Bayrou confidence vote Monday) impacting Euro positioning **Treasury Week Ahead Intelligence:** - US 10-Year at 4.10% (up 0.02 points from previous session) - Projected 4.06% end Q3 2025, 4.00% in 12 months - 2-Year expected decrease to 3.63% by December 2025 - Yield curve steepening anticipated with Fed rate cuts Week ahead intelligence that positions institutional capital across global markets while others react to yesterday. Because in institutional real estate, Monday positioning isn't optional - it's competitive advantage.