Golf

Justin Thomas on improving putting.

Earnings on April 24, 2025

• Revenue up 13% and Operating income up 16%.

• Revenue up 16% YoY and operating income up 27%!
• 3.4 billion unique users they estimate.
• Investment thesis:
  • Instagram and Reels. WhatsApp
  • AI
  • Physical glasses

Play at 2:05. Morning routine. Dropping F-bomb! Socially awkward. “I’m really smooth!” Does wonders for confidence!! 🤣 Smooth talker. Self-effacing.

Earnings release.

• All time highs. $1100+
• Recession proof.

shared a comment from its Board Chair.

“Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company. This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published)

Autonomous

FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees

Trump Admin to ease restrictions

Tesla has secured a 2 year exemption to run FSD on public roads in Norway

Tesla and NHTSA crash Data

• So 10x safer than human alone
• https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

Tesla Semi progress. Tesla has announced that they will be building 46 Semi truck megawatt level charging sites in the next couple years. They will all be built by early 2027.

Waymo has announced they are now providing over 250,000 paid Robotaxi trips per week, up from 200,000 per week two months ago.

Slate Car company

• Why do I feel like Slate is gonna be the Android to Tesla’s Apple.I

• Leaders in defense and warfare.
• This video is sick! Electro-magnetic pulse to take drones down.
• Ted Talk with Palmer Lucky.

I like these leaders (Palmer and Alex Karp).

Warren Buffet on importance of reducing trade deficit.

Tariffs
Great post from Ackman. Kind of game theory on why China has incentive to settle.

DOGE

$250 MILLION for "Transparency for the Uzbekistan Cotton Industry"

Recommendations:

• Palmer Lucky.
• Theo Von and Zuck.

Markets are volatile, but its very important to keep things in perspective.

• S&P 500 16% off all time high.
• 5 and 10 year annualized returns of 15% and 11%.
• CAPE Ratio still high at 33.

“The reality is, in the future, most people are not going to buy cars.”

Letter and Financials

FSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San Francisco

• Model Y best selling car on Earth. 2 years in row. Transition lines in all factories (Fremont, Austin, Shanghai, Berlin) in ~6-8 weeks
• World leader in real-world AI. Unsupervised self-driving will dominate the US.
• Leader in manufacturing. No other EV biz in US makes money and even ICE divisions will struggle with tariffs
• Tesla stressed their focus on localizing supply chain
• They will “turn-on” Austin, then other cities push-button
• Millions of cars driving autonomously mid to late next year
• Optimus
• China: Optimus Humanoid Robot will be #1 with China in spots 2-10

Investor Call here on YouTube

• Will spend less time at DOGE
• Play 12:12: future of company is based on large scale autonomous cars and robots. At scale at low cost. Value is staggering. Believes Tesla will be most valuable company in world by far. More than next 5 combined. (so $15 trillion?).
• Play at 20:20. 1000’s of Optimus robots working if factories by end of this year. Will scale faster than any product in history. Million units/yr in 4-5 years. 2030 1 million per year (maybe 2029).
• Play at 35:40 . Model Y’s on track for paid rides in Austin in June. Many other cities by end of year. S-curve. Robotaxi’s operating at scale in millions by 2H 2026.
• Play at 40:16. Many days without knowing if improvement is happening. 10,000 miles/ intervention. Teslas driving everywhere in Austin. Average person drives 10,000 miles/ year.
• Play at 47:18. “Waymo money”. Tesla costs 20% less. Doesn’t see anyone competing with Tesla at present. Tesla will have 99% or 90% something market share! Millions of cars deployed. Risk: Regulatory risk. In a few years will have 10m cars on road.
• Play at 1:01.30. We make also make our own cells! Tesla is the most competitive battery.
• Play at 1:11.58. Why are people still buying other car, like BMW’s. This is an Iphone moment.
• Elon: “Reality is most people won’t buy cars in future”. Flip phone analogy. Not perfect, but not bad.
• Elon: “Buying a gasoline car is like riding a horse. People still do it, but rare.”
• Play at 1:30.25. Who is ahead in Drones and AI? Vassal state. 100% of drones have a reliance on China. “China is amazing!”. Humanoid robots. No company in world that can match Tesla. Concerned that #’s 2-10 are Chinese companies.

Conclusion:
Buy the future

• Appreciation for life and feeling good.
• Punta Mita. W. Golf
• Masters: Rory completed a career grand slam.
• Men’s Golf Career Grand Slam Winners
• Jeff Bezos Blue Origin sends women to space

People are freaking, but is it that bad? NO!!

• Was at a $1058. After market $1006
  • 3 years ago in June was $170!!!
  • Almost a 6x return!!!

Revenue up 12.5% YoY. I like at least 10%.

Greg says will double Ad-tier revenue in 2025 (big statement).

Price targets:

• Wedbush $1150
• JP $1025
• Morgan Stanley $1150

Tesla

• $776b market cap. $240 stock price. Was $428.
• Biggest news coming is Cybercab in June in Austin…just wait.

Sales:

Tesla’s Market Leadership:

• Tesla sold approximately 128,100 EVs in the U.S. during Q1 2025, outperforming the combined sales of the next 10 EV brands.
• Teslas Super Charger in LA. Two 45 ft screens.
• Giga Texas production now uses FSD Unsupervised to deliver cars from end of line to the outbound logistics lot. Over 50,000 driverless miles have been accrued between California and Texas factories so far.
• NEWS: Five years after debuting Indiana's first @Tesla police car, the Bargersville Police Department says it has saved them nearly $500,000 in maintenance and repairs.
• Joe Rogan now tweeting about Tesla: I had my Tesla model S drive me home the other day with FSD, and it’s fucking wild. Changes lanes to avoid slow traffic, stops at red lights and stop signs, hits the blinkers and turns for you. It’s bananas.
• My FSD works great!!!

Nvidia

• Blog on $500b investment and building in Arizona

Walmart & Amazon - Drone Delivery

Columbia University:

• With an endowment of $14.8 billion

Harvard University:

• With an endowment of $53 billion.

Govt Transparency

The Washington Times claimed that Trump’s nearly 100 questions answered in three 2025 cabinet meetings is nearly 20 times the number answered by Biden during cabinet meetings over his entire four-year term

DOGE

24.5k people over 115 years old claimed $59M in benefits

28k people between 1 and 5 years old claimed $254M in benefits

9.7k people with birth dates over 15 years in the future claimed

• Brecka on Joe Rogan:
• Den of Thieves on Netflix.
• White Lotus
• Play guitar!

• Happy b-day to wife and her mom!
• Tiger Dating Vanessa.
• Cialis. 2.5mg per day for longevity from Bryon
• Trump, Kid Rock, Dana White and Bill Maher have dinner.

Full Correction Territory (down 10%); quickly moving to “Bear” down 15%.

• S&P 17%, Tech 25%+
• Apple in huge correction. PE still at 30
• Netflix at 43.

• No income tax in the US income tax until 1913.
• Tariff rates: The U.S. charged less than most big players—think 2-5% versus 5-15% from others.
• Trade Deficit 2024 was $918.4 billion.
• Total US spending deficit: $1.8 trillion in 2024 per FRED. Spend $6t and take in $4t.
• Total US Debt. $36 trillion.
• Interest expense is $1t growing

Ray Dalio on the significance and problem of debt.

Antonio Gracias on SS and Medicaid Fraud.

• Adolescence

• turns out it was harrowing story simply docking the Starliner.

Elon announcement here

CNBC interview with Rich Greenfield. .

WSJ Article here.

• New Figure Video released.
• Tesla now taking deliveries for Optimus.
• Official post from Tesla that autonomous robotaxi starting in Austin in June

• Tesla worst delivery numbers in years.
  • Norway registered more cars in March that ever.
• Made in the USA

Key Elements of RICO Charges

1. Fix Regulation and be more efficientHere is video of Ezra Klein discussing with Jon Stewart why $44b of broadband connected zero homes in 4 years.

Social Security:

• Antonio Gracias:! SS fake #’s and spendings
• Who is screaming the loudest. The Fraudsters.
• Video from Jason C. https://x.com/Jason/status/1906730493216780699

Goal is to reduce spending by $1b or 15%.

Entire Doge Interview with Brett Baier. Survey at 1:10. $1b. $830m online survey.

• 1700 different IT systems. 17 CIO’s.
• Social Security Fraud.

Jordan Peterson. Ride or Die

Grok vs Google

Golf

California Business

• S&P 8% off highs. Was 10% 1 week ago. So that was a correction
  • Tesla 52%. Nvidia, Meta: 20%. Apple: 18%.

Security. Digital Hygiene: Great from Karpathy 2-factor authentication and strong password for financial websites. YubiKey. 1Password

IRA Contributions

401k Max: 2025: $23,500 + Employer Match + After-tax = $70,000

Still can do $7000 in IRA.

• Scott Bessent and All-in
• Full Interview on X here.
• Palantir

• Website is GREAT!! www.doge.gov
  • I had to google “Timor-Leste”
• Elon on what DOGE is finding.
• DOGE's spending cuts are ramping up so quickly that United Airlines announced government travel is down a MASSIVE -50%

• CNBC video here. MoffetNathanson Upgrades Netflix to $1100.
• “Netflix has won the streaming wars.Case closed”

• Jensen Huang KeyNote at GTC 2025
• Nvidia working on driverless vehicle with GM!!
  • Video post here.
• Blue the robot. Robots are coming!!

• $480. Now $230. Sow down 52%. So increase 1.1x or 110% to get back.
• Play at 0:30. Winner take most by Cathie Wood.
  • $8-10 trillion in Revenue in 2030. ½ to platforms, like Tesla. Which is the biggest AI platform in the world.
• Dragon crew launch to ISS.
• Carried a russian cosmo.
  • Stuck no More! WSJ
  • 285 days in space. 9 months.
• No other US company can do this.
• 400th landing of Falcon 9 booster.
• Will launch to Mars and carry Optimus. Crossover.
• Per Elon, SpaceX carries 95% of payload to orbit.
• Starship is the only “vehicle” currently built that can go to Mars.
• Boston Dynamics Robot - Break dancing. Yes its here.
• BYD. Sheer size of Shenzhen factory.

• Trump threatening to suspend federal grants to Columbia University per WSJ.
• Play Andreeson on University funding.

• All-In Podcast. Chamath and Friedberg interviewing Secretary of Treasury Scott
• Dictators
• White Lotus
• Elon Interview on Ted Cruz

• The MOUSE!
• College world tour
• Golf Players Championship. TPC Sawgrass. All tree talk. Most seem to be using 3 wood. Morikawa hit Driver. Tree is ~90-100 yds in front and 10 ft clearance?

• Hang on tight. Its gonna be a bumpy ride. Big bounce today.
• We are in “Correction” territory. Down 10%. Every 2 years.

• Rule of 10 best days.
  • 2024 up 24%. Excluding 10 best days. Only up 4%
• DOLLAR COST AVERAGE.

• Trading around $210. Was $260. Down 20%.
  • Still has high PE 28-30 (depending on current or forward)
• Apple subtle announcement; made huge waves!
• Daring Fireball by Jon Gruber. Something is rotten in the state of cupertino.

• Monday this week. $260-$220 in 1 day. 15% down!
• Largest single day drops in history.
  • Largest single-day drops in $TSLA history (adjusted for splits):
  • 9/8/2020 21.1%, to $110.07
  • 1/13/2012 19.1%, to $1.52
  • 3/16/2020 18.6%, to $29.67
  • 2/5/2020 17.2%, to $48.98
  • 7/6/2010 16.4%, $1.07
  • 3/18/2020 16.0%, to $24.08
  • 3/10/2025 15.4%, to $222.15
  • 12/27/2010 15.4%, to $1.70
• Ron Baron:
  • Ron Baron on Tesla sales down because they’re not building…they’re in “refresh” mode for Model Y.
  • Ron on Robotaxi future
• Morgan Stanley says could go to $800 in next 12 months.
• NEWS: Tesla is reportedly working with Chinese tech giant Baidu to improve FSD performance in China.

1. Most Dems won’t sell their Tesla’s or Boycott the best car in world.
2. Now Republicans are Buying!
3. 1 year from now, this will all be forgotten.

• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on AI executing 90% of coding and 100% in next 12 months. Claude 3.7 Sonnet

• Is this really Obama talking about the Fiddling Farmers.
• Chuck Schumer 2010: we have to eliminate the waste, fraud and abuse from Medicare.
• https://www.doge.gov/savings
  • $115b in savings.

• Rambo Last Blood.
• BAck in Action: Movie on Netflix with Cameron Diaz and Jaime Fox
• American Primeval. Peter Berg
• Dictators Podcast. Pinochet
• Disney: Tim Dilon on Snow White.

• A&M, TCU, Miami, Tennessee, Clemson
• 529 plans
• Jensen Huang on the importance of working with AI link.
• Snoop Dog riffing on Thanking Himself

Saturday Night Live - CouplaBeers

SpaceX. Starship Booster caught for 3rd time

WSJ Headline: SpaceX Again Loses Spacecraft During Latest Starship Test Flight

• Tech down 12%, S&P 500 down 5.5%.
• Tesla down 45%. This means up 82% to back to normal. That’s huge!! Wait till Robotaxi.

Crypto: Fortknox for digital gold: Bitcoin

Tesla

• $550 price target by Wedbush.
• 40 minute uninterrupted drive in Schenzen.

Xiaomi. Apple of China. From WSJ: The Chinese EV Maker Threatening Ford and GM

China AI

Robotsguide.com

Figure

Figure’s focus on general-purpose humanoid robots aligns with the podcast’s tech-forward audience, and their recent moves—like a $675 million funding round in 2024 with backing from OpenAI and NVIDIA

1x.tech

China Robots

• Xiaomi.
• Unitree Robotics
• UBTECH Robotics
• Agibot (Zhiyuan Robot)
• LimX Dynamics
• EX Robots
• Elon on Optimus manufacturing. Will produce several 1000 Optimus robots for factory use.

• Trumps list of money not well spent:
• The transparency is great!
• Discussion in White house with Zelensky, Trump and Vance
• WOW!!!! KEY POINT is we see what’s going on!!!!
• Full interview here.
• 22 Dems echoing the same script. Funny take by Stephen A Smith.
• Newsome with Charlie Kirk. Play here at 0:30

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just announced plans to use the Postal Service to conduct the Census instead of wasting billions.

• Rogan and Elon
• Rogan and Bill Murray

Cabo to college: A&M, TCU Stockyard. Miami, Tennessee, Clemson

Embrace AI!! Particularly younger professionals!

• Elon on Doge: Says he is “Tech Support”.

• Markets correcting. S&P 500 down 3% last few days. Still up 2% YTD and 18% 1 year.

Starbucks laying 1000 off

Apple to invest $500 billion in US.

NVIDIA earnings tonight. Its like a superbowl event.

Foreign companies. 21:30 min on The Compound and Friends: Brian Belsky on foreign investments.

Bezos announcement around WaPo:I’m writing to let you know about a change coming to our opinion pages. We are going to be writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets.

Buffet Letter: Long-Term Optimism: Despite market frothiness (he calls it "casino-like" elsewhere), Buffett remains bullish on America’s economic tailwind. He sees stocks as the best bet over bonds or cash long-term.

• Andy Jassy on Alexa+.
• Grok 3.

• Down ~40%.
• Tesla (TSLA) new car registrations fell 45.2% year over year to 9,945 in January in the European Union, European Free Trade Association, and UK, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association said Tuesday.
  • People are waiting for Model Y ramp.

Wow #FSDChina

Who will build Robots for US Govt?

• U.S. based humanoid robot startup @1x_tech has unveiled their next-gen robot, NEO Gamma. Improvements: NEO can now walk with a natural human gait and arm swings.
• Xpeng

All-in on Elon setting up xAI data center.

• Pro Nvidia.
• Elon moving fast. Generators. Liquid cooling. Power problem. Rewriting firmware.
• Elon on XAI data center build.

• Elon on Doge: Says he is “Tech Support”.
  • Comment on Email:
  • People that are dead or fictional.
• DOGE website.
• List 5 things you accomplished this week.
• Jaime Dimon on DOGE initiative.
• Software subscriptions not being used!
• Social Security:
  • Amazing Puzzle! 😀
  • No one person actually knows how it works.
  • 395m people on SS

Ron Desantis on Property Taxes

• CEO of Scale AI: Alexandr Wang on This past weekend with Theo Von.
• Book: The Lion Women of Tehran. Mothers and daughters, love, jealousy.
• Paramount+: Seal Team
• Trumps cabinet meeting
• Dictators podcast.