Marcus Tantau is a senior associate at Templeton Research with a focus on Indonesia, which is beset by El Nino-fueled wildfires, political ructions amid a cabinet reshuffle, and confusing signals over the economy.

This month's reshuffle was the biggest since President Prabowo Subianto took power two years ago and Tantau says the Indonesian leader is clearly focused on shoring-up support ahead the next election, which is not due until 2029.

The reshuffle also sidelined supporters of former president Joko Widodo, who helped Prabowo win the vote in 2024. It came amid intense speculation regarding the state of the country’s finances and its efforts to combat the wildfires, which politicians are attempting to justify.

But arguments that food security and rice production justify the burning-off and clearing of land remain out of step with the region, where climate change and this year’s El Nino weather phenomena are taking a heavy toll.

“The mood towards Prabowo isn’t that great,” Tantau said. “It's all these issues, around job security. The rupiah has declined significantly since Prabowo came to power. It’s all of these issues that are linked to one another.

“But I think Prabowo is mostly focused on improving or consolidating his political hold on Indonesia. And we saw that recently with the cabinet shuffle where he was, for all intents and purposes, sidelining Joko appointees.”

Kim Aris has conducted a concerted campaign for the release of his mother, Aung San Suu Kyi, ever since she was detained in early 2021, when Myanmar’s military ousted her elected government and tipped the country into a bloody civil war.

Her meeting last month with an official from the International Committee for the Red Cross, following Kim’s Proof of Life campaign, did little to calm fears for the Nobel laureate’s health and safety amid claims that the meeting was staged, and at this point her whereabouts remain a closely guarded secret.

Kim Aris spoke to The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt about his mother’s fate, the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile, and the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) battling it out with the military in a conflict that has now killed more than 100,000 people.

He also talks about the recent diplomatic tour by the regime’s president Min Aung Hlaing to neighboring countries and his administration, which he described as a “parody of democracy," since one-sided elections were held in January.

"Sometimes I think that a parody of democracy could be more dangerous than a blatant dictatorship, because that gives people an opportunity to avoid doing anything about it,” he said.

“Min Aung Hlaing claimed that Myanmar remains on the path to democracy. That’s just a calculated attempt to pacify domestic resistance and offer foreign governments an easy diplomatic off-ramp to normalize relations or justify inaction.”

He also discussed the recently formed Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union, which combines the NUG, key EAOs, and parliamentary bodies, describing it as an important step toward a genuine federal democracy in Myanmar.

Eunice Barbara Novio is a Thailand-based journalist and an English lecturer at Vongchavalitkul University who has has written extensively on human trafficking in Southeast Asia, particularly focusing on Filipino victims trafficked to Myanmar.

A veteran writer for Inquirer.net, she has reported about how trafficking networks lure Filipinos with false job offers, only to exploit them in scam hubs or forced labor situations.

Novio has also helped victims of organized crime escape from their ordeal, particularly from compounds operating inside Myanmar and close to the Thai border.

She told The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt that the current scam compound phenomenon had its roots in the Philippines dating back to 2016, when Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators, commonly known as POGOs, took hold and flourished in places like Bamban – a small agricultural town north of Manila.