Marcus Tantau is a senior associate at Templeton Research with a focus on Indonesia, which is beset by El Nino-fueled wildfires, political ructions amid a cabinet reshuffle, and confusing signals over the economy.

This month's reshuffle was the biggest since President Prabowo Subianto took power two years ago and Tantau says the Indonesian leader is clearly focused on shoring-up support ahead the next election, which is not due until 2029.

The reshuffle also sidelined supporters of former president Joko Widodo, who helped Prabowo win the vote in 2024. It came amid intense speculation regarding the state of the country’s finances and its efforts to combat the wildfires, which politicians are attempting to justify.

But arguments that food security and rice production justify the burning-off and clearing of land remain out of step with the region, where climate change and this year’s El Nino weather phenomena are taking a heavy toll.

“The mood towards Prabowo isn’t that great,” Tantau said. “It's all these issues, around job security. The rupiah has declined significantly since Prabowo came to power. It’s all of these issues that are linked to one another.

“But I think Prabowo is mostly focused on improving or consolidating his political hold on Indonesia. And we saw that recently with the cabinet shuffle where he was, for all intents and purposes, sidelining Joko appointees.”