Canadians voted for Mark Carney and the Liberal government on April 28th, 2025. In his victory speech, Prime Minister Carney asserted, "It's time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy."

This week's podcast delves into the election results and its potential impact on Canadian energy with guest Greg Lyle, the founder and President of Innovative Research Group, a full-service market research firm with offices in Vancouver and Toronto.

Peter and Jackie discussed several topics with Greg, including surprises in the election results, how the Liberal minority government could collaborate with other parties to pass legislation, and the potential future direction of energy policy based on the Liberal platform and Prime Minister Carney's post-election statements. They also explored possible support for LNG export facilities, clean energy initiatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects like the Oil Sands Pathways Alliance project. Additionally, they considered proposals from the Liberals and industry to amend the Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), aiming to expedite decision timelines for project approvals.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Letter from Canadian energy CEO’s to Mark Carney (April 30, 2025) “Build Canada Now: Energy CEOS to the Prime Minster of Canada: An Urgent Action Plan to Strengthen Economic Sovereignty”

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This week, our guest is John Kousinioris, President and CEO of TransAlta, one of Canada's largest power generators. TransAlta owns, operates, and develops a diverse fleet of electrical power generation assets in Canada, the US, and Western Australia, producing electricity from renewable sources and thermal generation.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked John: What are the reasons behind TransAlta’s merger with TransAlta Renewables? What are your expectations for electricity load growth in North America, and how will AI data centers impact demand? Does TransAlta have plans for new investments to meet data center demand? Are there risks to electric system reliability due to fast data center growth? Are there supply chain bottlenecks for new generation projects, and do tariffs compound the issue? What are your perspectives on Alberta’s plan to redesign its electricity market? Do you see merit in building an east-west electricity grid in Canada?

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This week, Peter and Jackie discuss the latest news on the Canadian federal election, including takeaways from the leaders' debate on April 17th and the platform released by the Liberal Party on April 19th. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) had not yet released a full platform document at the time of recording.

Next, they provide an update on investment in clean energy. Equity values of publicly traded clean energy companies have fallen for the past four years (as measured by WilderHill Clean Energy ETF). At the same time, based on research by BloombergNEF, the sector registered an increase of 11% in new investment in 2024. The market is becoming bifurcated, with investment in mature and profitable technologies growing, and investment in emerging technologies, which are more dependent on government policy support, declining. Peter and Jackie also discuss China's dominance in clean energy technology manufacturing and the impact that US tariffs could have on clean energy globally, considering China’s strong position and outlook for continuing expansion.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Yale Budget Lab’s estimate of the US effective tariff rate (April 15)
• Liberal Platform (released April 19, 2025)
• BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025 Edition
• White House Executive Order “Protecting American Energy from State Overreach” (April 8, 2025)
• Dan Yergin and Atul Arya “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2025)
• Nat Bullard Annual Presentation (see slide 135 for China’s exports to the US, EU, and Global South)

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To begin this week’s podcast, Peter and Jackie recap the past week's events, including President Trump's tariff U-turn and the escalating US-China tariff war.

Next, the conversation turns to Canada, the upcoming federal election, and Arctic export ports. To help us understand the opportunities and challenges with Arctic ports, Chris Avery, CEO of the Arctic Gateway Group joins the show. The Arctic Gateway Group is an Indigenous and community-owned transportation company that operates the Port of Churchill—Canada’s only Arctic seaport serviced by rail—and the Hudson Bay Railway, connecting The Pas to Churchill, Manitoba.

Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Chris: What is the condition of the rail line to the port now? What types of goods are currently exported from the port, and what types are expected to be exported in the future? Is it a deep-water port? How much of the year is Hudson Bay covered by ice, preventing exports? Is it feasible to break the ice? They also discussed whether the port could be suitable for LNG exports.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Mark Carney, Liberal platform, economic pillars for change with a plan for Arctic ports (note, the Conservative party of Canada also has an Arctic control and sovereignty plan, but it does not explicitly identify energy export ports).
• Energy News “Arctic Pipelines to Capture European Market” (March 26, 2025), reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s initiative aimed at expanding the country’s oil infrastructure toward the Arctic
• LNG Industry, “Ice-breaking LNG carrier for Yamal LNG project named Vladimir Rusanov” (January 2018)
• Ship Technology “Mikhail Ulyanov Ice-Class Tanker” (December 2008)
• The BC Government announces more flexibility for the LNG net-zero 2030 policy, see March 28, 2025 letter to project proponent and updated Climate Action Secretariat’s Net Zero Plan Requirements

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This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter discuss the significant volatility in the financial markets due to the escalating global trade war unleashed by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. Economists and banks are sounding the alarm about the increased risk of a global recession. At the same time, oil prices have fallen by about $US 10/B due to fears of a recession and news that OPEC+ is adding more supply than expected into the market. In Canada, the uncertainty is further compounded by the upcoming federal election scheduled for April 28th, 2025.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Financial Times, “In charts: winners and losers from Trump’s new tariffs” (April 4, 2025)
• BNN Bloomberg, Trump’s tariffs to send U.S. into recession: JP Morgan (April 6, 2025)
• Polymarket, “ US recession in 2025?”
• Reuters, “OPEC+ unexpectedly speeds up oil output hikes, oil drops” (April 3, 2025)
• 338Canada, Canadian Federal Election Polling

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This week, Brian Appelbe, Research Fellow at the Centre for Inertial Fusion Studies (CIFS) at Imperial College London, who specializes in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High Energy Density Physics, joins the podcast.

Fusion energy aims to create a miniature sun on Earth, utilizing the same process that powers the sun, where tiny atoms fuse together to release a massive amount of clean energy. Recent breakthroughs in fusion include experiments achieving net energy gain and private developers pledging to have grid-connected fusion electricity generation units by the mid-2030s.

Here are some questions Peter and Jackie asked Brian: What are the advantages of fusion energy? How does it differ from nuclear fission? Realistically, how long before fusion is a commercial reality delivering electrons to the grid? How has the entrance of private companies and almost $7 billion in total private investment changed the pace of innovation? Do you think fusion energy will eventually be low-cost, and if so, what are the potential new uses of this abundant and cheap form of electricity?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Dr. Arthur Turrell’s book: “The Star Builders – Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet”
• 2024 report by the Fusion Industry Association

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This week our guest is Duane Reid-Carlson, President of EDC Associates Ltd., an independent electricity-focused consulting firm based in Calgary, Canada. The firm focuses closely on Alberta power markets.

EDC recently published its quarterly report and had some critical words about the government's proposed changes for Alberta’s electricity market – called the Restructured Energy Market (REM) - describing it as a “highly complex, expensive, inefficient experiment.” The same sentiment was reflected by almost all the 36 organizations that participated in the Alberta Electricity System Operator (AESO)’s feedback process in early 2025. Stakeholders were nearly unanimous in their comments that the changes will make Alberta’s electricity markets more expensive and less reliable – the exact attributes the redesign promised to fix. The sharp criticism spans all industry segments – from natural gas generators and renewable energy developers to consumers and transmission companies.

Participants also raised the issue of the AESO skipping the regulatory review from the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC), which provides an independent review by a regulatory body as a safeguard to prevent any unintended negative consequences from the redesign.

Peter and Jackie examine the concerns and potential long-term negative implications for Alberta’s electricity grid, generators, and consumers with Duane Reid-Carlson.

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Stakeholder submissions to the AESO on the Restructured Energy Market (REM) design, January 2025

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This week, our guest is François Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer of TC Energy. While he is based in Calgary, François joined us from Houston, where he attended the CERAWeek Conference. TC Energy has one of North America’s largest energy infrastructure portfolios, including natural gas pipelines and electricity generation assets in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.

Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked François Poirier: What are some of the top themes at CERAWeek, including the discussion on the infrastructure panel you spoke at? Do you expect the US will build pipelines and other large energy projects faster with President Trump’s emergency orders and fast-tracking? What is your outlook for North American natural gas demand, considering the proliferation of plans to build new AI data centres? President Trump would like to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline; what are your thoughts on that project? Is there an opportunity to move more natural gas between Western Canada and Eastern Canada over Canadian territory using the TC Mainline? Do you see the potential to revive the Energy East pipeline? What did you learn from completing the Coastal Gas Link pipeline which connects natural gas from Northeast British Columbia to Canada’s west coast at Kitimat, and how did it compare to your recent project of building a natural gas pipeline in Mexico? Could you envision TC Energy investing in another LNG feed gas pipeline in Canada, and what would need to change for you to make this investment? How urgent is it for Canada to start taking action to accelerate LNG projects, considering competition from Alaska, Mexico, and other foreign suppliers?

Content referenced in this podcast:

• Wall Street Journal Opinion Piece “How to Make North American Energy Great Again” (Feb 3, 2005)
• TC Energy’s Mexico pipeline project ($4.5 billion of investment)
• TC Energy’s Coastal GasLink Project in Canada

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