AI models today have a 50% chance of successfully completing a task that would take an expert human one hour. Seven months ago, that number was roughly 30 minutes — and seven months before that, 15 minutes.

These are substantial, multi-step tasks requiring sustained focus: building web applications, conducting machine learning research, or solving complex programming challenges.

Today’s guest, Beth Barnes, is CEO of METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research) — the leading organisation measuring these capabilities.

These highlights are from episode #217 of The 80,000 Hours Podcast: Beth Barnes on the most important graph in AI right now — and the 7-month rule that governs its progress, and include:

• Can we see AI scheming in the chain of thought? (00:00:34)
• We have to test model honesty even before they're used inside AI companies (00:05:48)
• It's essential to thoroughly test relevant real-world tasks (00:10:13)
• Recursively self-improving AI might even be here in two years — which is alarming (00:16:09)
• Do we need external auditors doing AI safety tests, not just the companies themselves? (00:21:55)
• A case against safety-focused people working at frontier AI companies (00:29:30)
• Open-weighting models is often good, and Beth has changed her attitude about it (00:34:57)

These aren't necessarily the most important or even most entertaining parts of the interview — so if you enjoy this, we strongly recommend checking out the full episode!

And if you're finding these highlights episodes valuable, please let us know by emailing podcast@80000hours.org.

Highlights put together by Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong

When you have a system where ministers almost never understand their portfolios, civil servants change jobs every few months, and MPs don’t grasp parliamentary procedure even after decades in office — is the problem the people, or the structure they work in?

Political journalist Ian Dunt studies the systemic reasons governments succeed and fail. And in his book How Westminster Works …and Why It Doesn’t, he argues that Britain’s government dysfunction and multi-decade failure to solve its key problems stems primarily from bad incentives and bad processes.

These highlights are from episode #216 of The 80,000 Hours Podcast: Ian Dunt on why governments in Britain and elsewhere can’t get anything done – and how to fix it, and include:

• Rob's intro (00:00:00)
• The UK is governed from a tiny cramped house (00:00:08)
• Replacing political distractions with departmental organisation (00:02:58)
• The profoundly dangerous development of "delegated legislation" (00:06:42)
• Do more independent-minded legislatures actually lead to better outcomes? (00:09:08)
• MPs waste much of their time helping constituents with random complaints (00:12:50)
• How to keep expert civil servants (00:15:44)
• Unlikely heroes in the House of Lords (00:18:33)
• Proportional representation and other alternatives to first-past-the-post (00:22:02)

These aren't necessarily the most important or even most entertaining parts of the interview — so if you enjoy this, we strongly recommend checking out the full episode!

And if you're finding these highlights episodes valuable, please let us know by emailing podcast@80000hours.org.

Highlights put together by Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong

Throughout history, technological revolutions have fundamentally shifted the balance of power in society. The Industrial Revolution created conditions where democracies could dominate for the first time — as nations needed educated, informed, and empowered citizens to deploy advanced technologies and remain competitive.

Unfortunately, there’s every reason to think artificial general intelligence (AGI) will reverse that trend.

In a new paper, Tom Davidson — senior research fellow at the Forethought Centre for AI Strategy — argues that advanced AI systems will enable unprecedented power grabs by tiny groups of people, primarily by removing the need for other human beings to participate.

These highlights are from episode #215 of The 80,000 Hours Podcast: Tom Davidson on how AI-enabled coups could allow a tiny group to seize power, and include:

• "No person rules alone" — except now they might (00:00:13)
• The 3 threat scenarios (00:06:17)
• Underpinning all 3 threats: Secret AI loyalties (00:10:15)
• Is this common sense or far-fetched? (00:13:46)
• How to automate a military coup (00:17:41)
• If you took over the US, could you take over the whole world? (00:22:44)
• Secret loyalties all the way down (00:26:27)
• Is it important to have more than one powerful AI country? (00:29:59)
• What transparency actually looks like (00:33:08)

These aren't necessarily the most important or even most entertaining parts of the interview — so if you enjoy this, we strongly recommend checking out the full episode!

And if you're finding these highlights episodes valuable, please let us know by emailing podcast@80000hours.org.

Highlights put together by Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, and Dominic Armstrong