Market Pulse — Thursday, October 9, 2025
Numbers Only — Oil Surge, Gas Heating Demand

INTRO (0:00–0:10)
Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0. This is Market Pulse — Thursday's numbers-only edition.

OVERNIGHT DATA DROP (0:10–0:35)
• Oil: WTI crude $89.15, up 2.1%. Brent $93.80, up 2.8%. WTI-Brent spread widening to $4.65.
• Gas: Henry Hub $2.92, up 2.5%. Storage draws accelerating as heating demand kicks in early.
• Products: RBOB gasoline crack $24.10, refinery utilization dropping to 87.1% amid maintenance season.
• Midstream: TC Energy announced $800M pipeline expansion. Energy Transfer Partners reported record Q3 throughput volumes.

ENERGY NUMBERS — WHAT MATTERS (0:35–1:15)
• Oil production: Permian Basin steady at 5.9 million barrels per day. Breakeven costs holding: Permian core $43-49 per barrel, Eagle Ford $48-54.
• Gas fundamentals: LNG feedgas demand up to 14.2 BCF per day on European demand surge. Power burn climbing 12% week-over-week as cooling extends into October.
• Hedging snapshot: Top 20 E&P companies now 72% hedged on Q4 oil production above $78. Gas hedging increased to 52% coverage on winter pricing.
• Takeaway: PDP assets with sub-$50 breakevens and 75%+ hedge coverage are generating exceptional cash flow at current pricing.

REAL ESTATE & CREDIT NUMBERS (1:15–1:45)
• Real Estate: Industrial cap rates tightening to 5.6% for Class A logistics near major ports. Multifamily refinancing up 8% week-over-week as rates stabilize.
• Credit: Direct lending spreads: SOFR plus 575-800 basis points for middle market. Default rates ticking up to 2.1% but still below 2.5% historical average. Dry powder: $425B+ across private credit funds.
• Structure focus: Senior secured deals averaging 62% loan-to-value with 1.3x debt service coverage minimums becoming standard.

ACTIONABLE NUMBERS (1:45–2:00)
Bottom line math:
• Oil: Target PDP with sub-$50 breakevens and 6-month hedge floors above $75.
• Gas: Selective exposure with basis differentials managed and winter contracts locked.
• Real estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs; multifamily with 1.35x+ debt coverage.
• Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650+, loan-to-value under 65%.

That's your Thursday data drop. Visit GotTheGold.com for strategic wealth insights. Stay sharp.