BOND YIELDS ARE TALKING—THE FED’S JUST WATCHING.

A 25 bps tweak won’t change how most people spend—but a market rally will. In today’s Truthbomb, I go straight to the source of truth: the yield curve. From my days as a bond trader to today’s “data blackout,” I’ll show why rates only indirectly touch your wallet while asset prices directly move your confidence—and your consumption.

What’s inside:

• Why the bond market is still the best arbiter of economic reality
• Fed Funds → Prime Rate → your APRs (and why that chain is leaky)
• Credit card rates above 20%: proof the Fed’s lever is imperfect
• The wealth effect: stocks & home values drive spending more than 25 bps ever will
• When the Fed truly matters (recession extremes) vs when it’s a spectator

Truthbomb of the Day:
THE FED CAN TWEAK RATES--BUT MARKETS MOVE MINDS. IN THE END--CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND WEALTH DRIVE THE ECONOMY--NOT 25 BASIS POINTS.

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