
Are Security Guarantees Worth Anything? . . . What Will Protect Ukraine From Future Russian Invasions?
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Having completed a review of numerous academic periodicals that feature thought-provoking articles and scantily-clad models, Adam and Jeff offer their insights as to how best to end the war in Ukraine. Jeff points out that the so-called security guarantees being bandied about by England and France are not necessarily cast in stone but are "situational" and can disappear when a new government is elected or the existing government simply weasels out of its obligations by claiming that the guarantee does not apply to a particular situation. Adam and Jeff discuss the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Russia, among others, agreed not to use military force against Ukraine "except in matters of self defense." Fast forward to 2014 and Russia apparently concluded that invading Crimea did not constitute a violation of the Memorandum because the Kremlin really wanted to have a port on the Black Sea. More recently, President Putin decided in 2022 that he really wanted the rest of Ukraine so he went ahead and launched an all-out invasion that has since bogged down and become a war of attrition--which has caused Russia itself to suffer more than a million military casualties. Jeff believes that the only likely outcome is a sort of "frozen peace" in which a permanent ceasefire occurs--possibly without a recognition of changed borders. As far as security guarantees are concerned, both Adam and Jeff feel that Ukraine is the only actor that can ensure its own security.