『Deep Dive 9/9/2025』のカバーアート

Deep Dive 9/9/2025

Deep Dive 9/9/2025

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 Executive SummaryThe Bitcoin market is currently in a significant consolidation phase, holding above the critical $112,000 support level. This stability is driven by strong underlying forces: persistent institutional accumulation, a maturing U.S. regulatory landscape, and imminent macroeconomic catalysts. While short-term volatility is expected due to upcoming U.S. economic data, the long-term outlook remains bullish, supported by deep conviction from corporate and sovereign entities and increasing legitimacy from government and financial institutions.Key Themes and Important Ideas/Facts1. Market & Price Analysis: Consolidation and Macroeconomic Anticipation* Price Stability and Technical Support: Bitcoin is trading between $112,000 and $113,000, having established a "strong support cluster" in the $110,889 to $111,099 range. This zone is reinforced by the convergence of the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling that "the medium-term uptrend remains firmly intact." The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also shows a "gradual bullish crossover," suggesting building upward momentum.* Macroeconomic Crosswinds: The market is "coiled for a big move" as participants await the release of key U.S. economic data, specifically the preliminary revision for jobs data ending March 2025. Projections indicate a "significant downward adjustment" of 450,000 to 950,000 jobs.* Dovish Scenario: A weaker jobs report would likely increase the probability of more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar and catalyzing capital flow into risk assets like Bitcoin.* Hawkish Scenario: A stronger-than-expected report could delay Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and creating "short-term headwinds for Bitcoin."* Opposing Forces: The current consolidation represents a "high-potential equilibrium" where "short-term macro uncertainty creating a ceiling, while long-term institutional accumulation creates a floor." This dynamic suggests that "any dip caused by a negative macro surprise is likely to be aggressively bought by these long-term holders."2. The Institutional Advance: Deepening Corporate and Sovereign Conviction* CoinShares' U.S. Listing: CoinShares, a major European digital asset investment firm managing approximately $10 billion in assets, is going public on the U.S. Nasdaq exchange via a $1.2 billion SPAC merger. This move provides access to new capital and expands its reach in the U.S. market.* El Salvador's Continued Commitment: El Salvador, on the anniversary of its "Bitcoin Law," purchased an additional "21 BTC for approximately $2.3 million." This "symbolic value is immense," reaffirming President Bukele's "unwavering commitment" and reinforcing Bitcoin's "potential role as a neutral, non-sovereign reserve asset for nation-states."* Corporate Treasury Accumulation Outpacing ETFs: For three consecutive quarters, "publicly listed companies have acquired more Bitcoin for their corporate treasuries than all of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs combined."* In Q2 2025, corporate treasuries added approximately 131,000 BTC, compared to 111,000 BTC by ETFs.* A total of "61 public companies now collectively hold 848,100 BTC, a figure that represents a staggering 4% of the entire circulating supply of Bitcoin."* This "stickier" capital, integrated into balance sheets, indicates "a fundamentally deeper level of institutional conviction" beyond mere financial exposure.* Emergence of "Bitcoin Treasury Companies": The market is differentiating between companies that facilitate crypto and those whose "core strategy is the accumulation of Bitcoin itself." Companies like Metaplanet are adopting this new model, suggesting a "structural evolution in capital markets" where these firms are analyzed by "BTC holdings per share and the premium or discount to their net asset value (NAV)."3. The Regulatory Framework Matures: U.S. Paves the Way for Integration* U.S. Congress Seeks National Bitcoin Reserve Report: Congress is requesting a "detailed report from the Department of the Treasury" outlining logistics for maintaining a strategic U.S. Bitcoin reserve. This builds on a March 2025 Executive Order to retain seized digital assets. This legislative action signifies a "durable, bipartisan effort to integrate Bitcoin into the national balance sheet."* Nasdaq's Tokenized Securities Proposal: Nasdaq has filed a proposal with the SEC to allow "trading of tokenized securities—such as digital representations of equities and ETFs—on its main U.S. exchange." This "watershed moment" could "create a seamless bridge between legacy financial markets and the efficiency of blockchain-based settlement systems."* Robinhood's S&P 500 Inclusion: Robinhood Markets is joining the S&P 500 index, effective September 22. This "major event" forces index funds and institutional trackers to gain "passive exposure to a company whose financial fortunes are significantly ...
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