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批評家のレビュー

2034 is an exciting, interesting, and informative novel about a hypothetical future war with China that is largely determined by actual decisions already made. It describes in detail how a single technological leap forward by an adversary, in this case China, could destroy our ability to communicate, resulting in a blind, hapless military. It also demonstrates how today’s military policies will leave a future United States without adequate resources to wage a high intensity conventional war and be forced to resort to a first strike nuclear response and its horrific consequences. Anyone who is concerned about where today’s military technology decisions are taking us should read this book.” (Karl Marlantes, author of Matterhorn and Deep River)

“Chilling yet compulsively readable work of speculative fiction.... Ackerman and Stavridis have created a brilliantly executed geopolitical tale that is impossible to put down and that serves as a dire, all-too-plausible warning that recent events could have catastrophic consequences.” (Booklist, starred review)

“Consider this another vaccine against disaster. Fortunately, this dose won't cause a temporary fever - and it happens to be a rippingly good read. Turns out that even cautionary tales can be exciting, when the future we’re most excited about is the one where they never come true.” (Wired)

“A frightening look at how a major-power showdown might race out of control.... This compelling thriller should be required reading for our national leaders and translated into Mandarin.” (Kirkus, starred review)
 

あらすじ・解説

From two former military officers and award-winning authors, a chillingly authentic geopolitical thriller that imagines a naval clash between the US and China in the South China Sea in 2034 - and the path from there to a nightmarish global conflagration.

On March 12, 2034, US Navy Commodore Sarah Hunt is on the bridge of her flagship, the guided missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones, conducting a routine freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea when her ship detects an unflagged trawler in clear distress, smoke billowing from its bridge. On that same day, US Marine aviator Major Chris "Wedge" Mitchell is flying an F35E Lightning over the Strait of Hormuz, testing a new stealth technology as he flirts with Iranian airspace. By the end of that day, Wedge will be an Iranian prisoner, and Sarah Hunt's destroyer will lie at the bottom of the sea, sunk by the Chinese Navy. Iran and China have clearly coordinated their moves, which involve the use of powerful new forms of cyber weaponry that render US ships and planes defenseless. In a single day, America's faith in its military's strategic pre-eminence is in tatters. A new, terrifying era is at hand.

So begins a disturbingly plausible work of speculative fiction, co-authored by an award-winning novelist and decorated Marine veteran and the former commander of NATO, a legendary admiral who has spent much of his career strategically outmaneuvering America's most tenacious adversaries. Written with a powerful blend of geopolitical sophistication and human empathy, 2034 takes us inside the minds of a global cast of characters - Americans, Chinese, Iranians, Russians, Indians - as a series of arrogant miscalculations on all sides leads the world into an intensifying international storm. In the end, China and the United States will have paid a staggering cost, one that forever alters the global balance of power. 

Everything in 2034 is an imaginative extrapolation from present-day facts on the ground combined with the authors' years working at the highest and most classified levels of national security. Sometimes it takes a brilliant work of fiction to illuminate the most dire of warnings: 2034 is all too close at hand, and this cautionary tale presents the listener a dark yet possible future that we must do all we can to avoid.

* This audiobook edition includes an exclusive interview with co-author Admiral James Stavridis.

©2021 Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis (P)2021 Penguin Audio

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絞り込み:
  • 総合評価
    3 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Ronald A McBroom-Teasley
  • 2021/03/10

Meh....

This book started off pretty well, a plausible scenario for a future conflict between two superpowers. However, the book quickly devolves into ill-explained science fiction cyber weapons that can completely shut down enemy technology and render systems defenseless. The only solution is for one side to attack the other with WWII technology and rely on the superior cunning of its service members. If you're into that sort of story, this is a good book for you. However, if you're looking for a Tom Clancy-style techno-thriller with accurate depictions of military technology, I'd pass on this one.

  • 総合評価
    3 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    4 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    3 out of 5 stars
  • Amazon Customer
  • 2021/03/14

good story, not clancy technical though

wanted more technical on cyber attack methods employed and how. suppose we'll just refer to the real world events and papers for that.

  • 総合評価
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    5 out of 5 stars
  • P. Mikolajczyk
  • 2021/03/13

WAKE UP CALL!

A must read for those STILL unwilling to acknowledge the world has changed and so have the threats!

  • 総合評価
    3 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    3 out of 5 stars
  • Thucydides
  • 2021/03/11

Good setup, disappointing execution

I was eager to read this book, given the reputations of the two authors. The setup of the book that begins the scenario is good and highlights the risks that both the South China Sea disputes and cyberconflict present. The payoff of this setup was pretty disappointing and becomes increasingly implausible. The interview with Adm Stavridis at the end of the book is well worth the listen, as he highlights many of the chief dangers the U.S. faces today quite well.

  • 総合評価
    1 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    1 out of 5 stars
  • 匿名
  • 2021/03/30

Too many unbelievable plot elements

This kind of book succeeds or fails on presenting a credible scenario for the unfolding of future events (it certainly wouldn’t want to be relying on the quality of the prose or the character development).  Some aspects of the plot were believable. That a confected incident could escalate out of control in the tense military conditions of the South China Sea is definitely believable. That the Russians could engage in tactical shenanigans with unanticipated consequences I also found believable. That the US arrogantly underestimates its geopolitical opponents and comes a cropper as a result was believable too.


Many of the details, however, left me scratching my head. Military aspects like the fact that the Chinese air force and air defense system were seemingly on holiday for much of the events, lack of use of missiles and particularly new hyper sonic missiles, how much damage a tactical nuclear weapon could really do to a city and whether it could be carried by a F18 hornet are things that others have focused on and I wont reiterate them here.  But the following really caused the failure of my suspension of disbelief.



1.      

The Chinese spend years devising their strategy for invading Taiwan including devilish new weapons, deceptions and the remote hijacking of war planes, but seemed to have ignored the possibility that the action could escalate to a nuclear war



2.      

The Chinese, having developed a game changing cyber capability that could essentially disable all US ships , decided to use that technology on a small number of US ships first, and then allow some of the crew to escape to report back and warn the US naval command, giving them the opportunity to develop countermeasures



3.      

The US, having been given this opportunity, rather than trying to come up with a counter measure, decide to sail a quarter of their navy into the face of this new weapon so that they can be disabled and sunk.   



4.      

That the Russians, on a covert mission to destroy subsea cables and ‘disable the US internet’ (something that there is a degree of debate about I understand since the action would most likely have a worse effect on the Russians, given that so much of the infrastructure on which the internet is based is already in the US) sit and sunbathe above the cables for a few days waiting for the right time to act.



5.      

That the US wouldn’t track a flotilla of Russian boats hanging menacingly around subsea internet cables and send some planes out to intercept,



6.      

That the Iranians don’t take the defense of islands in the Straights of Hormuz seriously.



7.      

That the Europeans wouldn’t intervene in the invasion of a European Union and NATO country, even if the US didn’t.



8.      

That Saudi Arabia and Israel wouldn’t have been centrally involved in a state of war or near war affecting the Gulf



9.      

That there wouldn’t have been an earlier nuclear war had Iran launched a military invasion of the Golan Heights.  



I also disliked a lot of the tone of the book. I don’t think the gravity of the threat of nuclear war was adequately expressed. I didn’t care about the individuals and how they felt if they were complicit in the deaths of millions of people and I found the yahoo-ing, top gun-esque maverick pilot story line, pretty distasteful in the context of dropping a nuclear weapon on city full of civilians.  



But with all the illogicality of the book, the most bewildering thing about it is the author. The precis to the interview at the end of the audio book describes the James Stavridis’ CV which, if true, makes him the ultimate geo-political and military insider. So why when you read the book are there so many illogicalities and non-sequiturs? If the leading lights of US foreign policy and military thinking can be so basically illiterate when it comes to the politics of the world, the US’s days as a superpower must surely be numbered. God help us when she goes down fighting

  • 総合評価
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    2 out of 5 stars
  • carpet man
  • 2021/03/17

POLITICALLY CORRECT WAR STORY

The world is involved in a great war. India steps up to save us from ourselves. Cigarettes tossed from a jet fighter cocpit remind us of the good old days when life was simpler. Equal opportunity has given us a female president, and a cigar smoking female admiral with the courage to start a nuclear war. Can't we just get along?
P.S. Don't move to Galveston

  • 総合評価
    4 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    4 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Jim
  • 2021/03/18

A Harbinger

A Harbinger. It's this generation's On the Beach meets Dr. Strangelove meets the Guns of August.

  • 総合評価
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    3 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    1 out of 5 stars
  • Jeff Jensen
  • 2021/03/13

Not plausible

The authors want you to think that the bad reviews are because readers disagree with the message. They are because this book jumps around from China is the most technological country in the world to China allowing an American jet to circle its largest city. They have the ability to remotely disable whole carrier groups and then either can't, or won't find one they know carries nuclear weapons. Authors should stick to their think tanks.

  • 総合評価
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    2 out of 5 stars
  • John Mac
  • 2021/03/18

Not The Gripping Tale You're Looking For

A tedious story with flat characters and predictable outcomes telegraphed far in advance of the conclusion. Ackerman and Stavridis wanted to deliver a character driven cautionary tale about where the US might be headed, but in doing so they skip by details, cut away from any action, and focus on a set of characters who are mid-level functionaries with little control over events or their respective destinies.

Unfortunately, none of the characters are all that interesting in and of themselves, so you're not left with much to hang your hat on other than to wonder if they can influence anything. If you're looking for something akin to Tom Clancy or Harold Coyle, keep on looking, you won't find it here. This title yadda yaddas its way past anything of technical or political substance.

  • 総合評価
    4 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    3 out of 5 stars
  • L. G.
  • 2021/03/17

Interesting Gripping Read

I listened to this in one day. A very compelling read. I don't think in an actual real life situation things would pan out as portrayed in the novel.

I kept wondering what was happening in places like North Korea, and South America. Was there a resistance movement in Taiwan? What was Israel"s response to the war? Also missing was the state of the Sino Empire after hostilities ceased.

Despite certain omissions it's still one hell of a military thriller and an amazing cautionary tale.

並べ替え:
絞り込み:
  • 総合評価
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    1 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    3 out of 5 stars
  • patrick s
  • 2021/05/07

Don’t waste your time

If you are used to Jack Carr books and quality narrators, you’ll be disappointed. Keep looking.

  • 総合評価
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    5 out of 5 stars
  • H Newsam
  • 2021/04/21

Look at today’s politicians when reading

A very scary book. Look at the politicians today who are in charge and ask... how would they deal with a crisis like this? This book should be in your mind every time you cast a vote.

  • 総合評価
    4 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Suzanne Jones
  • 2021/04/20

A cautionary tale

The book does well to make the reader imagine a situation where the US faces a near peer adversary in the not too distant future. It provides much to consider about how the west should respond to China’s growing power and the threat of cyber attack. It’s not Tom Clancy but it certainly made me think. The parallels drawn between the US and the end of the British Empire were quite striking. The narration/performances were great too.

  • 総合評価
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Smiler
  • 2021/04/05

Re: Unrealistic

SPOILERS FOLLOW
--------------------------

This began well but rapidly deteriorated as it became apparent the authors are completely ignorant of the countries and cultures upon which this plot hinges. Shockingly this book is written by two military officers, and that probably explains the decades of US military and diplomatic disasters in Asia. If this reflects the US security establishment analysis of other cultures, then it can be summarised as: Iranians are over-emotional and filled with unstable rage, the Chinese are inscrutable Fu-Manchu figures, the Russians are dangerously risky schemers, the Indians are passive observers who for decades have hidden Roswell Alien levels of technology etc. Only the Americans have a range of emotions and motives.

Let's consider how likely is it that an Iranian Al-Quds (hilariously mispronounced) commander awarded the Order of Fath (likewise mispronounced) and a monotheist would sit and listen to a lecture on pagan beliefs as a way to interpret the world? How likely is it that that the Iranians would trust the Indians more than the Chinese? How likely is it that the Indians would be able to hack into Russians systems when the Americans can't, & when India can't even produce a decent jet fighter let alone aircraft-carrier? How likely and for what possible reason would the Russians capture Iranian islands in the Gulf, considering the Iranians & Russians are allies? And then the idea that the Pakistanis, one of the closest Chinese allies and with centuries of blood & cultural links to Iran, would stay silent throughout this entire affair and not have been given advance notification by the Chinese is as ridiculous as the idea that the Chinese would have ignored Indian involvement--indeed the very first thing the Chinese would have done is asked Pakistan to preoccupy the Indians.

It's clear that the authors had no idea (or alternatively desire) to state how such a war would proceed hence the deus ex machina of Indian involvement to avoid giving examples of a more realistic strike and counterstrike.

Ultimately this is a terrible book and I regret wasting time and a credit on it.


  • 総合評価
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    3 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Mr. Adrian F. Holt
  • 2021/03/26

Sobering tail of an avoidable tragedy

The story is insightful, impactful and important.

Some of the situations and characters feel dated, even in 2021, and the delivery sometimes feels out of kilter with the scene.

  • 総合評価
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    2 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Kindle Customer
  • 2021/03/15

not my best read

For me this book never got going. I found it hard to continue to read but did make my way to the end in the hope it would improve. I found it lacking in detail in most parts and streching details out in parts that really had no need. I,ve read a lot of this genre and enjoy them. Sadly not this book.

並べ替え:
絞り込み:
  • 総合評価
    1 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    4 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    1 out of 5 stars
  • Foreign Correspondent
  • 2021/03/20

A Woeful Backfire

At first blush this novel has the worthy mission of raising the alarm regarding America's faltering military strength and competence as the People's Republic of China rises to technological and military primacy. But like an aircraft carrier crew facing a barrage of missiles, torpedoes and tactical nukes, you must brace yourself for tedious digressions, nonsensical passages, absurd coincidences, formulaic characters, annoying non sequiturs, cringeworthy cliches, scrambled geography, herky-jerky pacing and treacly childhood-flashbacks-without-end. And after all that, you must submit to the book's limping, trivializing coda. Alas, the call-to-arms mission of this story is sunk by its own depleted prose.

  • 総合評価
    1 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    1 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    1 out of 5 stars
  • 匿名
  • 2021/05/09

The recording and narrative is terrible.

Painful to listen and hard to follow. Side stories of characters uninterested. Attempts to pronounce Chinese names correctly was not required and annoying to listen.

  • 総合評価
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Charlie The Wonder Dog
  • 2021/05/02

All empires fall …

Great story, the worry is it is absolutely plausible. Fantastic to see an author actually present American decline in a intelligent and realistic manner

  • 総合評価
    4 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Shaun Haddrill
  • 2021/04/15

A wake-up call and thrilling story

I hope that those with power in China, USA, Russia, Europe and India read this book and heed it's warning.

  • 総合評価
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ナレーション
    5 out of 5 stars
  • ストーリー
    5 out of 5 stars
  • John
  • 2021/03/18

Strap yourself in!!

This was a seat of your pants look through the halls of diplomacy, the bridge of a carrier group and the cross hairs of a cockpit. Nothing predictable here just a warning of what might be through the minds of authorities that know. A disaster novel of epic proportions that should be made into a Hollywood movie (just not starring Chris Pine please).

A great listen and well worth the credit.