p(stag)
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p(stag)
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Cam Harvey examines “p(Stag)” — the probability of stagflation — and what a high-inflation, low-growth environment could mean for investors and portfolio construction. Drawing on ongoing research into stagflation and asset management, Cam explains why inflation should not be analyzed in isolation. The economic growth environment matters: an upside inflation surprise during a recession can carry very different information for markets than the same surprise during normal or strong growth. Cam outlines three key ideas from the research: distinguishing stagflation from overheating, using real-time indicators that investors can actually act on, and measuring the acceleration of inflation. He then explores the historical implications for equities, fixed income, the traditional 60/40 portfolio, TIPS, commodities, gold, trend-following strategies, and long-short equity strategies. The episode also considers current inflation risks, Treasury yields, breakeven inflation expectations, and why portfolio risk management can matter even when investors disagree about the exact probability of stagflation.