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  • Pershing Square Challenge 2026 runner-ups on Baker Hughes $BKR
    2026/05/25

    Team Baker Hughes, the second-place finishers in the 2026 Pershing Square Challenge, discuss their Baker Hughes thesis and why they believe the market hasn't fully appreciated the company's evolution from a cyclical oil field services business. They discuss how the long runway for the IET business, and they back their thesis up with 30+ expert calls, a trip to the Western Turbine Users conference, and a sum-of-the-parts case that leans on growth, not multiple expansion.

    See the team's full pitch deck here

    This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check them out at https://www.trata.com

    Chapters

    0:00 Intro and sponsor

    2:21 Meet Team Baker Hughes

    4:39 Why they backed into Baker Hughes

    6:56 Watching the stock run from $45 to $65 mid-pitch

    7:21 The differentiated work: 30+ expert calls and the turbine conference

    8:27 The two businesses: oil field services vs. industrial energy technology

    10:10 What the market is missing on the IET transformation

    12:56 Is this just another cycle? The chart hit $65 three times

    13:59 Why this gas turbine cycle is structurally different

    17:01 AI as a distraction: onshoring and electrification

    17:51 The installed base flywheel and recurring service revenue

    21:13 The three turbine segments and the supply chain squeeze

    23:34 Honoring 70-year customers vs. mercenary pricing

    27:44 Valuation: a sum-of-the-parts story, not a multiple story

    29:36 The Chart acquisition: can they really double their money?

    34:56 The GE merger history and the GE Aero Alliance today

    38:27 Management, alignment, and insider ownership

    42:41 The C3 AI anecdote and wrap-up

    Links:

    Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

    See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

    Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

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    46 分
  • Pershing Square Challenge 2026 winners on DoorDash $DASH
    2026/05/22

    The winners of the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 discuss their Doordash pitch, including why the growth story still has room to run (and the 90 primary research calls they made to back up that call). We get into durable US restaurant growth, why new verticals and international could inflect to profitability earlier than the street models, the underappreciated opex leverage, their proprietary Wolt case study, the Tony Xu bet, and why they think the Citrini AI-agent thesis on DoorDash is overblown.

    This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check out their DASH transcript at https://www.trata.com/dash

    Team DASH presentation:

    ZK's LinkedIn

    Aaron's LinkedIn

    Elliot's LinkedIn

    Chapters

    00:00 The Pershing Square Challenge and team DoorDash

    01:14 Sponsor: Trata

    02:50 Meet the team: ZK, Elliot, and Aaron

    05:40 Why they picked DoorDash out of the screen

    10:10 The bull case in three parts

    11:20 US restaurant growth: still the middle innings?

    13:20 Demographics as a tailwind

    17:50 Order frequency and the China comp

    21:00 Valuation: $70B cap, adjusted EBITDA, and the path to $320

    25:35 The real downside: competition, Amazon, bundled memberships

    29:50 The ~90 primary research calls

    33:35 New verticals and the grocery economics

    38:10 A DoorDash bet or a Tony Xu bet?

    41:40 Management comp and alignment

    43:45 International: the Wolt case study and Deliveroo

    47:00 The tech-stack reinvestment cycle

    51:00 Sylvie makes her podcast debut

    51:20 Citrini and the AI-agent threat

    56:20 Wrap

    Links:

    Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

    See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

    Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

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    57 分
  • Why $PSUS deserves a premium to NAV and $PS deserves a premium multiple | Marlton's James Elbaor
    2026/05/19

    James Elbaor of Marlton makes the case that $PSUS will trade at a premium to NAV instead of the typical closed-end fund discount and that $PS will ultimately trade at a premium multiple to peers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Carlyle given its lean team and advantaged fee structure. We push on every part of that, including whether Ackman's portfolio is just an expensive S&P hug, why London still doesn't fully credit him, and whether Spark gives Pershing a real path into Universal Music Group.

    Sponsor: Fiscal.ai. Real-time fundamental data for global equities, plus one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT. Get 15% off at fiscal.ai/yav

    Chapters:

    0:00 Intro and the divergent thesis

    1:05 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai

    2:20 Marlton's lens on closed-end funds and UK trusts

    5:00 $PSUS: scale, structure, why it's already the largest US equity CEF

    7:30 The case for a premium to NAV instead of a 15 to 20% discount

    12:30 $PSUS vs $PSH London: who can own what, and why it matters

    15:20 The 40-Act book and Ackman's macro hedging history

    17:50 Track record with and without the COVID hedge

    22:00 Why London still does not fully credit Bill

    23:50 "But isn't it just Google, Amazon, Meta?" — the index-hug pushback

    26:00 Can Pershing get private assets (Spark, HHH-style deals) into $PSUS

    29:00 $PSCM valuation: 30x FRE and the bridge from $300M to $550 to $590M

    36:00 Why $PSCM should deserve a premium multiple to KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl

    42:30 Preferred performance fees and why the income statement is cleaner

    45:30 Alignment: insiders own 85%+

    48:00 Permanent capital vs six-year "permanent" capital at the alts

    49:40 50 employees at $PSCM vs 2,200 at Carlyle

    52:00 Keyman risk on Bill and Ryan Israel's role

    58:30 What's next: $UMG, Vincent Bolloré, and Spark as the vehicle

    1:02:00 Wrap

    Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

    See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

    Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

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    1 時間 5 分
  • $DRVN Cruising through the Driven Brands thesis | Kyle Mowery GrizzlyRock Capital
    2026/05/14

    Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).

    disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVN

    Kyle's late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search

    [00:00:00] Intro and disclosures

    [00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today

    [00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap

    [00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel

    [00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park

    [00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth

    [00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem

    [00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement

    [00:23:22] The cash adjustment

    [00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue

    [00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks

    [00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA

    [00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat

    [00:37:54] Is this fraud? No

    [00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands

    [00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt

    [00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands

    [00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution

    [00:53:26] Roark Capital's strategic options

    [00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?

    [01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle's watching

    [01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrials

    Links:

    Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

    See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

    Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

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    1 時間 4 分
  • $LBTYK: can Liberty Global finally spin to win? | Stock Spin-Off Investing's Rich Howe
    2026/05/10

    Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty's long history of value that never quite shows up.

    Chapters:

    00:00 Introduction and Liberty Global thesis

    01:44 Sponsor: AlphaSense earnings season

    04:49 Rich's bull case for $LBTYK

    07:46 Andrew on management credibility

    09:05 Why a spin can unlock value

    11:57 Buybacks: are they actually working?

    15:19 Debt structure and the deleveraging path

    17:14 Operational deterioration risk

    19:52 Ziggo's subscriber losses

    24:09 Malone and Fries: the track record

    27:46 The Liberty Global board problem

    31:22 The growth investment portfolio

    32:59 Why Rich haircuts the portfolio

    36:43 Formula E and venture exposure

    38:35 The empire-building risk

    40:55 Virgin Media O2 restructuring

    42:11 Other spin-off setups worth a look

    43:40 Ziff Davis sum-of-the-parts

    46:52 Andrew on distressed SaaS ideas

    48:22 Lionsgate and media consolidation

    51:53 Lionsgate as an acquisition target

    Links:

    Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

    Stock Spin-Off Investing (Rich Howe): https://www.stockspinoffinvesting.com

    Legal disclaimer: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

    Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant: https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

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    54 分
  • $STVN: are oral GLP-1s really a death blow? | Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel
    2026/05/05
    Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel argues that's a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin "high-value solutions," and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo's view.[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest welcome[00:03:08] Stevanato's business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[00:03:51] COVID boom and the destocking cycle[00:06:39] Why the stock sold off and what it implies[00:07:34] Market expectations vs. reality[00:11:55] Margin expansion from mix shift[00:14:40] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate[00:17:30] Why oral and injectable aren't interchangeable[00:19:44] Capacity additions and oversupply risk[00:21:00] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1[00:23:04] Management trust and capital allocation[00:26:52] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat[00:29:42] What could break the bull case[00:30:53] Future capex and where it goes[00:32:41] Industry structure and M&A outlook[00:34:37] AI tools in investment research[00:38:09] Closing thoughts and Leo's stanceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p...Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
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    39 分
  • Can Sprout Social Survive the SaaSpocalypse with Pernas Research's Deiya Pernas $SPT
    2026/04/30

    In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.

    ____________________________________________________________

    [00:00:00] Introduction and guest overview

    [00:03:59] Sprout Social business model explained

    [00:05:38] Market mispricing and SaaS selloff

    [00:09:53] Fundamentals versus market perception debate

    [00:12:05] SaaS valuation reset discussion

    [00:13:45] Platform capabilities and customer usage[00:15:16] API complexity and competitive advantage

    [00:18:58] Compliance risks and AI concerns

    [00:21:48] Platform competition from social networks

    [00:23:50] AI disruption and company adaptation

    [00:27:07] Systems of record skepticism discussed

    [00:30:00] Integrations and switching costs impact

    [00:31:01] Stock-based compensation concerns raised

    [00:32:01] Dilution risks and sustainability issues

    [00:33:48] Governance changes as potential catalyst

    [00:35:49] Management turnover and uncertainty

    [00:36:46] Acquisition potential discussed

    [00:38:59] Broader SaaS opportunities and risks

    [00:42:11] SaaS durability versus AI disruption

    [00:45:36] Lack of insider buying observations

    [00:46:55] Criticism of board incentives

    Links:

    Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

    See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

    Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

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    50 分
  • Chadd Garcia drills into LandBridge's value
    2026/04/26

    In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by returning guest Chad Garcia to discuss LandBridge and the broader Permian Basin ecosystem. Chad outlines how land-based royalty models differ from traditional energy investments, highlighting surface rights, produced water, and infrastructure as key drivers. The conversation covers LandBridge’s growth through pore space expansion, strategic land acquisitions, and its relationship with WaterBridge. They also examine valuation differences versus peers like TPL, the role of data centers in West Texas, and why the market may be underestimating future cash flow. The episode concludes with an update on Secure Energy’s acquisition and its implications for the waste infrastructure thesis.

    ____________________________________________________________

    [00:00:00] Introduction and Chad Garcia returns

    [00:04:07] LandBridge overview and investment thesis

    [00:05:26] History of land royalty businesses

    [00:08:57] TPL business model breakdown

    [00:13:21] LandBridge business and revenue streams

    [00:16:11] Valuation comparison versus TPL

    [00:17:21] Market skepticism and short thesis

    [00:20:59] Incremental pore space growth potential

    [00:24:27] Sponsor ownership and insider alignment

    [00:26:50] Structure and related party concerns

    [00:29:12] Acquisition strategy and value creation

    [00:31:30] Strategic land positioning explained

    [00:36:01] Competitive advantages in pore space

    [00:39:37] Data center opportunity in Permian

    [00:43:38] Challenges to data center deployment

    [00:46:42] Valuation framework and growth outlook

    [00:48:36] LandBridge versus WaterBridge comparison

    [00:49:31] Secure Energy acquisition overview

    [00:51:06] Waste thesis validation discussion

    [00:55:35] Reaction to acquisition valuation

    [00:58:16] Market education still ongoing

    [01:01:12] Closing thoughts and disclaimer

    Links:

    Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

    See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

    Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

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    1 時間 2 分