David Thomas, author of The Fairfax Way (amazon link: https://amzn.to/4adQ7JS), comes on the podcast for a wide-ranging podcast on Fairfax, including the company's origins, macro wins, missteps in insurance, and what the future looks like for Fairfax as Prem approaches his 80s.

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[00:00:00] Andrew returns with David Thomas

[00:02:31] David’s background in business journalism

[00:06:25] Fairfax’s long-term investment returns

[00:08:16] Evolution of investment and insurance strategy

[00:13:01] Fairfax’s stock picking and equity style

[00:16:39] Inflation themes in stock selection

[00:20:32] BlackBerry investment strategy and challenges

[00:24:14] Macro success: shorting housing and tech

[00:29:20] 2010–2016 bearish misstep reflection

[00:35:12] Politics influence on macro decisions

[00:36:56] Prem’s current macro outlook

[00:40:55] Discussion of Fairfax valuation

[00:41:34] Book value and buyback logic

[00:44:28] Overview of the short seller campaign

[00:49:04] Perspective on Fairfax's hedge fund lawsuit[00:51:14] Succession planning at Fairfax

[00:53:44] Stability of all business segments

[00:57:45] 15% target: still realistic?

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Host Andrew Walker delivers his November ramblings with four key themes. He kicks things off with a story about craps in Vegas to illustrate how early wins in investing can falsely reinforce flawed strategies. Andrew also explores the mental traps of buying stocks he initially passed on, offers cautious commentary on shorting the so-called "AI bubble," and reflects on why trusting management projections and NAV estimates often ends in disappointment. With a new baby on the way, Andrew signs off with personal updates and an open invitation for listeners to reach out and discuss these topics further.

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[00:00:00] Podcast intro and disclaimer

[00:02:05] Wins lure into false security

[00:12:45] Passed stocks drop, then buy

[00:20:00] Shorting AI bubble discussed

[00:26:20] Trusting management and NAV

[00:28:40] Final thoughts and baby update

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

On the heels of sending an open letter to the Golden Entertainment's (GDEN; disclosure: long) board, host Andrew Walker dives deeper into Golden's take private deal and why he believes it transfers ~$300m of value from minority shareholders to insiders.

Open letter to GDEN board: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/an-open-letter-to-the-golden-entertainment

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[00:00:02] Intro to special episode

[00:03:26] Comparison to Louvre heist

[00:04:20] Smoking guns and IR site change

[00:07:35] Sale leaseback structure details

[00:09:15] Valuation analysis and critique

[00:13:30] Everbay letter and valuation math

[00:16:45] Management buyout vs. fair value

[00:19:00] Critique of go-shop process

[00:21:10] Regulatory hurdles for go-shop

[00:23:40] Call for fair deal structure

[00:24:50] Closing thoughts and disclaimer

Links:

Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com

See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer