How strong is the El Niño signal developing in the tropical Pacific — and how much can we actually infer from it?
In this episode, Anastasiya Pashigreva on ALLATRA Media examines NOAA’s September 10, 2026 assessment of a rapidly strengthening El Niño and the evidence behind an unusually strong forecast for the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño and a 75% probability that October–December 2026 will exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950, based on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).
The observations are striking. In August 2026, the Niño 3.4 RONI reached about +1.8°C, while Niño 1+2 reached about +3.4°C. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded +3°C, and subsurface temperature anomalies were above +10°C in widespread areas. From March to August, Niño 3.4 shifted from roughly −0.5°C to +1.8°C.
But the important question is not simply whether this El Niño is strong. It is what the observations can establish, what remains uncertain, and how carefully we should interpret the forecast.
The episode looks at how NOAA combines oceanic and atmospheric observations with multi-model forecasts, why the RONI and Niño indices matter, and what the subsurface ocean tells us about the state of the tropical Pacific. It also examines the limits of the current picture: “Super El Niño” is not an official NOAA category, forecast probabilities are not guarantees, and the strength of an El Niño does not determine a single inevitable outcome for every region.
Primary source:
NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, September 10, 2026
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Review:
Anastasiya Pashigreva — “2026’s Potential Super El Niño: What We Know — and What We Still Don’t Understand”
ALLATRA Media
https://allatra.media/environment/super-el-nino-2026