Why does the right answer always seem obvious once someone reveals it?

Before the reveal in a good mystery, the clues feel scattered. Then Sherlock Holmes names the answer, and suddenly every detail looks like it was always pointing the same way. The clues have not changed. Only your knowledge of the ending has.

We do something similar to ourselves.

This episode is about hindsight bias, and the difference between a bad decision and a bad outcome. Because those are not the same thing, and treating them as one is how people end up punishing themselves for choices that were reasonable when they made them.

We return to Moneyball with a different question than we asked in Episode 8. Did Oakland's playoff defeat prove the strategy was wrong?

And there is a more personal story. A school basketball team, a jersey number I chose, and being cut one week before the tournament. I spent years wondering whether I had made the wrong decision. Looking back, I am no longer sure the decision was the problem.

💡 Pause and reflect: What past decision are you judging with knowledge, maturity, or perspective you did not have at the time?

If these conversations are adding something to your journey, reserve your seat in the sanctuary by following the show wherever you listen.

For written reflections and companion notes, explore The Compass at MaisonTST.com.

#TheStrategicThinker #MaisonTST #HindsightBias #Moneyball #LongTermThinking