Professor Robert Patman, Professor of International Relations at the University of Otago, joins Andrew Urquhart to assess the state of the Ukraine war as it heads into another winter. He describes the Donbas front as bordering on stalemate, with Russia making grinding, costly gains until a recent Ukrainian breakthrough near Lyman, while both sides escalate drone and missile strikes on infrastructure and cities in a bid to break morale.

Prof. Patman warns that diplomatic efforts, including recent Kushner-Witkoff visits, have achieved little since Putin will only accept a Russian-dictated "land for peace" deal, and flags growing fractures in European support as pro-Russian populist parties (AfD, National Rally, Reform UK) gain ground.

He argues New Zealand has a direct stake in Russia's defeat given the precedent it sets for China over Taiwan and the Pacific, and notes rare cross-party domestic consensus, from David Seymour to Winston Peters, against Putin's invasion despite differing political persuasions.

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