Does Trump hit Iran before the midterms or after? Peter Erickson says after: the war is unpopular, a strike on energy infrastructure invites immediate retaliation on the Gulf, and the markets would panic. But Netanyahu is tied with Eisenkot in the polls, and a war has never hurt him before. Charlie pushes on whether the Israeli election changes anything at all, and Peter argues Trump’s motive is now personal vindictiveness toward Tehran, which makes Mearsheimer’s “the US can’t do it” argument a comfort that only has to fail once. Trump wakes up at the edge of the cliff every morning. He never walks away from it.Then the damage report. Peter walks through what Iran actually did in the first forty days: bases rendered uninhabitable, servicemen hiding in parking garages and vans in the desert, a sixth of Qatar’s LNG capacity gone. The next rungs are undersea cables, desalination plants, and the rest of Qatar’s gas. The Gulf monarchs are now begging Washington not to do it, and Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE may already have closed their airspace. Which leads to Charlie’s big question: the US is no longer the hegemon, so why does the alliance system still hold, and who breaks first? Peter’s answer is the Gulf, because they are the only vassals who are not ideological. Europe, he says, is a suicide cult, and its only way out is back to the nation state.Finally Ukraine. Reports that Russian aircraft are dropping FABs on the bridges of Kiev remain unconfirmed, but the South Bridge carries most of the city’s traffic and the metro, and Peter sees a plan forming: make the Dnieper the border from Zaporizhzhia to the Russian frontier. Charlie asks whether we are headed for an East Kiev and a West Kiev, a Berlin Wall in reverse, where the side backed by the US is the one beating its own citizens to keep them in. Belgium has killed the frozen assets plan, the Ukrainian military is cutting pay, and the bag of tricks is nearly empty in both theaters.0:00 Strike before or after the midterms? Netanyahu tied with Eisenkot5:18 Would an Eisenkot win matter? Trump’s personal grudge against Iran9:29 Mearsheimer says the US can’t do it. Trump wakes up at the cliff every morning12:46 Will the Pentagon say no? Non-concurrence is not mutiny13:18 What Iran did in the first forty days, and the next rungs on the ladder19:30 The US is not the hegemon anymore, so why does the alliance hold?22:23 Inertia, Europe’s suicide cult, and why the Gulf breaks first26:52 Have Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE already said no?30:42 South Korea stands up, Taiwan doesn’t, and the retreat to the second island chain34:50 A new Yalta with Xi and Putin? Theater, not strategy36:16 Will Europe find its sovereignty or become everyone’s vassal?45:58 Is Russia bombing the bridges in Kiev?49:43 Splitting Ukraine along the Dnieper52:32 East Kiev, West Kiev, and a Berlin Wall in reverse57:59 Does the war end or escalate? Belgium kills the frozen assets planGo Deeper: https://ruinsreport.com/Substack: https://conversationsamongtheruins.substack.com/Support the Conversation:Join as a Member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCW9CSfmP6gEjqtOdGTD_JKw/joinBuy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/amongtheruinsFollow us:X: https://x.com/RuinsReportInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/conversationsamongtheruins/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@amongtheruins