『ThursdAI - Oct 29 - Gemini 4 Carbon is the new #1, Anthropic files to go public & more』のカバーアート

ThursdAI - Oct 29 - Gemini 4 Carbon is the new #1, Anthropic files to go public & more

ThursdAI - Oct 29 - Gemini 4 Carbon is the new #1, Anthropic files to go public & more

無料で聴く

ポッドキャストの詳細を見る
概要
 Hey, it’s Alex 👋What a week! Gemini 4 Argon was Google’s best model for exactly two weeks. Then Google shipped Gemini 4 Carbon, and it’s the new number 1 in the world. Google is SO back. (when they actually release, it’s waitlisted so far) The other big story is Anthropic’s S-1. For the first time, we get real, audited numbers on what a frontier AI lab looks like as a business. Peter Gostev stayed up making 60+ charts, and we walked through them together on the show.We also had models trying to escape their sandboxes, and Genie 4, which made me think (again) that we live in a simulation.Wolfram and I hosted from the same room for once (meatspace!). Peter, Nisten and LDJ joined remotely. Mert Gulsun from Artificial Analysis joined to talk about their new index, and for From the Forge we had the CoreWeave engineers who are “forward deployed” inside the Aston Martin F1 team! What does that mean? We dive into FDE Google is SO backGemini 4 Carbon - #1 on Artificial Analysis, 2 weeks after Argon (X, X, Sundar)Gemini 4 Carbon scores 59 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. That makes it the top model in the world on their brand new index, 1 point ahead of Claude Opus 5.5. It also debuts at #1 on Text Arena and #2 on Agent Arena.Two big models back to back is unusual for Google, after a long stretch of Flash models. There’s no version number either. It’s not Gemini 4.1, it’s just... Carbon. I have no idea why 😅I haven’t seen a Gemini eval chart like this in a long time. Google is finally competing with the full frontier (GPT-6 Astra, Opus 5.5, Fable 5.1), and on most rows it wins.My favorite eval here is Vending Bench from Andon Labs, where the model runs a real vending machine business. Carbon finished with $16,484 in the bank. Opus 5.5 finished with about 9K. LDJ was most impressed by RiemannBench, a very hard math benchmark, where Carbon beats Opus 5.5 by 10 points. Math was supposed to be OpenAI’s turf!Google is pitching Carbon for agentic coding and cybersecurity. The launch price is $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output, which already includes a 50% launch discount. Wolfram loved this. Models are finding security holes that have been there for years, and fixing them takes a LOT of tokens. In his words: “the cheaper the model that can do this, the better for everybody.”The catch is access. Right now only selected cyber defenders get it, and everyone else gets it “soon”. I got early access the night before the show but barely used it, so I don’t have a hands-on verdict yet.Peter tested it until 1am. On Agent Arena it jumped from Argon’s #7 to #2, at a fraction of Opus 5.5’s cost per task. He also made the best point of the segment: if Google had skipped Argon and shipped Carbon with no waitlist, we’d all be saying “oh my God, Google is back.” Instead, people are confused about why they shipped two models in two weeks.He’s right. But if you missed the Argon drama, Carbon is a great release. Congrats to the team, and please let us actually use it! Until then, you can try it on Arena.Anthropic files to go publicAnthropic’s S-1 - $974M operating profit, listing Monday as ANT (X, Peter’s charts, Peter’s thread)Anthropic filed its S-1 and lists on Nasdaq this Monday under the ticker ANT. This matters because Google, Meta and the others keep their AI numbers buried inside a bigger business. For Anthropic, AI is the whole business, so now we can actually see the numbers. In Q2 2026 they made $974 million in operating profit, with an 85% gross margin.Peter picked the S-1 as his highlight of the week, over any model release. His reason: even if you don’t care how rich Anthropic gets, this proves there is real money in AI, and that money pays for the next models and the infrastructure. The numbers are good, and nobody credible is saying otherwise.Adding 5 billion in a quarter is insaneHere’s the growth. In 2025, Anthropic made a billion or two per quarter. In Q1 2026 they made about $4.7B. In Q2 they made $11.55B, more than double in a single quarter. As Peter said, “that does not happen.”And that was before Opus 5.5 came out. The S-1 stops at Q2, but later reporting puts Q3 around $16.8B, so they added another 5 billion. Peter’s reaction: “Adding 5 billion in a quarter extra is insane.”We say “insane” a lot on this show, but this time it’s literally true. Claude Code started as a side project inside Anthropic. Around Opus 4.6 it turned into a general agent that can actually do things, and this chart is what happened next.A common worry was that the revenue depends on a few huge customers, like Cursor. It doesn’t. In 2023, about 20 customers paid Anthropic more than $100K a year. By December 2025 it was 1,500. Now it’s almost 12,000. Enterprises are slow to adopt, but once they do, it looks like this.Where the compute goesThe S-1 also shows how efficient their compute spending got. Through 2025, Anthropic spent...
adbl_web_anon_alc_button_suppression_t1
まだレビューはありません