The sponge record that moved the preindustrial baseline by 80 years
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The sponge record that moved the preindustrial baseline by 80 years
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The sponge record that moved the preindustrial baseline by 80 years
In this episode, we lay out the data and decisions that shifted the timeline scientists use to measure global warming and what that recalibration reveals about recent extreme weather. We follow the research, measurements, and events that make the question urgent: if the baseline was wrong, how much sooner did we cross critical thresholds?
Person: Sclerosponges
Date: July 21, 2024
Location: Atlantic Ocean
Event: Sponge study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (February 2024)
Topic: Recalibration of preindustrial temperature baseline from 1950 to 1860
- Researchers read 300 years of chemical layers from calcified sclerosponges to trace ocean thermal chemistry backward in time.
- The sponge data show a continuous warming signal beginning around 1860, coinciding with early industrial furnace scaling.
- Using an 1860 baseline, the study recalculates current warming at 1.7°C above preindustrial, 0.5°C higher than the 1950 baseline estimate.
- On July 1, 2024, Hurricane Beryl intensified from tropical storm to Category Five within 24 hours as Atlantic sea surface temperatures ran several degrees above average.
- A February 2024 PNAS paper proposed adding a Category Five to the hurricane scale after multiple recent storms exceeded the existing Category Five threshold.
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