『The government says its new trust tax will raise $4.5bn. Industry says complying with it will cost up to $13.3bn』のカバーアート

The government says its new trust tax will raise $4.5bn. Industry says complying with it will cost up to $13.3bn

The government says its new trust tax will raise $4.5bn. Industry says complying with it will cost up to $13.3bn

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Both figures are on the table this week as the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 3) Bill 2026 enters Parliament, and neither side has produced a number in between.Treasurer Jim Chalmers introduced the bill on Wednesday, calling it “the most ambitious tax reform package in a generation.” Underneath that framing sits a specific, checkable set of numbers, and this week two very different ones arrived on the same table.The government’s figure is $4.5 billion: what Treasury expects the measure to raise in its first year. Industry’s figure, reported this week via Wilson Asset Management and CPA Australia, is $8 billion to $13.3 billion — what the roughly 210,000 trusts expected to be affected could spend on advice and restructuring to comply.That second figure comes from firms whose business is trust and SMSF advice, so it’s their estimate, not one that has been independently modelled. It is, however, the only cost figure anyone has put forward, and nobody in government has offered a competing number to weigh against it.What the bill actually doesFrom 1 July 2028, discretionary trusts pay a 30 per cent minimum tax on their taxable income. Chalmers says that aligns the rate with what a worker earning $45,000 to $135,000 already pays. The government estimates about 350,000 active small businesses used a discretionary trust in 2022-23, roughly one in six, and that Treasury expects around 140,000 of those won’t pay a cent more under the change, leaving roughly 210,000 that will.Exemptions cover family farms, registered charities, deceased estates, special disability trusts and super funds; none of that is contested. The dispute is over a narrower carve-out: distributions to other tax-exempt entities, including sporting clubs and schools, are exempt up to a cap the government describes as “reasonable.” That cap has not been set. A draft circulated last month flagged that one would apply; as of this week, it still hasn’t.The bill also isn’t travelling alone. The same legislation carries separate changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount for new housing, which Chalmers says target distortions that have “locked too many young Australians out of housing for too long.” If the trust provisions sink the bill in the Senate, the housing measures go down with them.Appreciate the newsletter but aren’t ready to pay for a subscription? Grab us a beer or snag the exclusive ad spot at the top of next week's newsletter.Two Greens, two different complaintsGreens economics spokesman Nick McKim wants the charity and school exemption removed outright. “The treasurer needs to knock this out of the legislation,” he said, adding “there is far too much leniency.” His specific concern: a family could keep paying private school fees out of a trust and still qualify for the concession, even though the bill leaves schools’ own tax treatment untouched.Chalmers’ response treats the exemption as minor. “There are good reasons” for it, he says, calling it “a very specific sliver of what’s being proposed here,” and separately estimating fewer than 10 per cent of small businesses will be touched by the measure overall. Neither side disputes what the bill says; they disagree about whether the carve-out is a loophole or a reasonable line.A second Greens senator, David Shoebridge, took a different line earlier in the week, arguing the government had already “managed to water down its own position” and warning that what he called Labor’s “political cowardice” risked making the reform “yet another missed opportunity.” It’s a broader complaint than McKim’s, less about this specific carve-out and more about whether the government has the appetite for the fight at all.As of this week, the Greens have said they will move for a Senate inquiry into the carve-outs. No inquiry had been established as this issue went to draft, only sought.The other side of the fightThe Coalition opposes the bill outright and won’t be won over by amendments, so the government needs the Greens’ votes regardless of how that inquiry question lands. Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash told Seven’s Sunrise the changes would “tax small businesses twice,” describing them as “slugging the backbone of the Australian community, our small and family businesses, with yet another tax.” Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson sought to refer the bill to the Senate economics committee; the request was rejected.Wilson separately disputes Chalmers’ claim that trusts restructuring to avoid the tax won’t trigger state stamp duty, saying businesses doing so will still face it — a direct factual disagreement neither side has resolved on the public record. Shadow Assistant Treasurer Kevin Hogan’s assessment was blunter still: he said tax accountants would be the “great winner” of the reform.Enforcement is the quieter half of the story. UNSW tax academic Dale Boccabella points out that a rule is ...
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