The cost curve is deciding who can keep growing
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The cost curve is deciding who can keep growing
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概要
Expensive diesel and capital are lifting mining costs, while lithium and copper show why the speed of new supply matters more than a simple demand story.
This week’s commercial question is which assets can keep investing when fuel and finance are expensive. The International Energy Agency says diesel supply remains unusually tight even as overall oil demand weakens, while the US Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October and said inflation remains elevated.
Lithium is the fast-supply example. PLS reported record quarterly production and lower unit costs, then approved the A$1.9 billion P2000 expansion. Its 20-year power agreement with Fortescue is expected to lower P2000 operating costs by about A$15–20 per tonne. These are company targets, not guarantees.
Copper is the slow-supply counterexample. Freeport says Grasberg’s phased recovery is expected to reach about 80% of capacity by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by the end of 2027. Recovering a major existing mine still takes time, supporting the view that copper supply is less responsive than lithium supply.
Supporting market context: world crude-steel output was 142.4 million tonnes in September 2026, down 0.2% year on year; China’s January–September output fell 2.9% while India’s rose 5.6%. This helps explain why bulk-commodity demand is rotating rather than booming uniformly.
What to watch: diesel inventories and refinery recovery; whether high rates persist; PLS execution and lithium curtailments; Grasberg’s early-2027 material-handling upgrade; and Chinese versus Indian steel production.
Audio generated using AI voices.
Sources
IEA Oil Market Report — October 2026
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
PLS record production and lower costs drive strong start to FY27
PLS signs long-term power agreement for Pilgangoora
Freeport provides third-quarter 2026 operational update
World Steel Association September 2026 crude steel production
Audio generated using AI voices. Research as of 2026-10-29.
This episode includes AI-generated content.
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