Grim reality of the NDIS leviathan

“It will start big and get bigger and grow to become the new leviathan of the Australian welfare state,” CIS scholar Andrew Baker further predicted of Labor’s National Disability Insurance Scheme in his 2012 policy monograph. Even the Productivity Commission failed to pick the looming NDIS fiscal disaster from the worthy goal of providing support to permanently and significantly disabled Australians...

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The hard lesson of Australia’s protectionist past is that propping up uncompetitive and high cost industries invariably poses a burden on other sectors, including on the mining, gas and farm exporters that actually support our prosperity.

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Donald Trump’s threats to destroy the ‘whole civilisation’ of Iran this week jarringly contrasted with the out-of-this world American achievement of sending a four-member crew as far from Earth as any humans had gone.

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Australia’s new economic decline is colliding with the breakdown of the liberal rules-based orders for global trade and security. The post-pandemic and oil shock push for more sovereign capability and supply-chain self-reliance will eat into national income just as living standards are under pressure.

Resolving this tension will require more, not less, of the pro-market —or neo-liberal — policy agenda of the Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello era to reboot productivity and economic growth.

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I was in Canberra this week, in part to hear International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol warn that today’s oil price shock will rival the twin Middle East energy shocks of the 1970s. The 1973 and 1979 shocks promoted using smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles. And it prompted a wave of nuclear energy development in Japan, Europe and North America. Today’s oil price shock will have comparable repercussions, Birol predicts. Here’s the four take outs I picked up at a National Security College conference, where I was on a panel, and the annual Minerals Council of Australia Minerals Week Conference, where I moderated a session: 👉 Join CIS:

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RBA governor Michele Bullock has jacked up her cash rate by 25 basis points for the second month in a row because of two words that can strike fear into the heart of central bankers: “inflation expectations”. What does this mean for you?

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The criticisms and characterization of the 50% capital gains tax discount over many years have been full of misunderstandings, myths and distortions in the conventional narrative on how capital gains tax works, how it compares with the capital gains tax that it replaced in 1999, and the economic consequences of making the capital gains tax burden heavier. The myths and distortions are biasing the public discussion towards increased taxation.

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👉 Further reading:

Why We Should Not Increase Capital Gains Tax: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/why-we-should-not-increase-capital-gains-tax/

10 CGT Myths Busted: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/10-cgt-myths-busted/

Shortly before 7pm on Sunday, a Hanukah celebration on Sydney’s Bondi Beach was attacked by two alleged gunmen, believed to be a father and son. At the time of recording, 16 people aged between 10 and 87 are confirmed dead, including one of the alleged attackers, and at least 42 others are being treated in hospital for their injuries.

In this episode of The Stutchbury Sessions, Michael Stutchbury talks with Peter Kurti about the tragedy at Bondi, the politicial leadership failures and rising antisemitism in Australia. 👉Relevant writings: 🔹 Australia’s complacency and the Bondi beach shooting: https://www.cis.org.au/commentary/opinion/australias-complacency-and-the-bondi-beach-shooting/ 🔹 Reframing an Ancient Hatred: the intersection of left-wing antisemitism and anti-Zionism: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/reframing-an-ancient-hatred-the-intersection-of-left-wing-antisemitism-and-anti-zionism/ 🔹 The Darkest Path: The Puzzling Resilience of Antisemitism. Acton Lecture 2025: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/the-darkest-path-the-puzzling-resilience-of-antisemitism-acton-lecture-2025/ 🔹 Fractured Loyalties. Australian citizenship and the crisis of civic virtue: https://www.cis.org.au/publication/fractured-loyalties-australian-citizenship-and-the-crisis-of-civic-virtue/ 👉 Support our work to combat Antisemitism in Australia: 🔹 Become a member: https://www.cis.org.au/membership-2-step-1/ 🔹 Make a donation: https://www.cis.org.au/support/donate/today/ 🔹 Learn more: https://www.cis.org.au/ #auspol #bondi