He agreed with every word I said about the failure, and then explained why it would not happen to him.

Composite call. This is four or five conversations stacked into one, because the pattern is the point and I am not putting a real customer in it.

Late October, and I am standing in a garage in front of a nineteen year old eighty percent furnace with a heat exchanger I did not like. Not cracked through, not yet. But scaled, and rusted at the bottom of the cells in the pattern you get when a system has been condensing where it should not.

I showed him. He looked. He is a smart man, retired from something technical, and he followed everything I said.

Then he said, well, but this one has been solid.

And there it is. He was not disagreeing with me about heat exchangers. He agreed heat exchangers fail. He agreed nineteen years is a lot. He just did not believe that applied to his.

That is a specific thing with a name.

In 1980 a psychologist at Rutgers named Neil Weinstein published a study called Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events. He gave a couple hundred college students a list of things that happen to people. Some good, some bad. Owning your own home. Getting divorced. Having a drinking problem. Living past eighty. Getting a serious illness.

For each one he asked a simple question: compared to other people like you, how likely is this to happen to you?

The answers did not average out. They could not, mathematically. Almost everybody rated themselves above average for the good outcomes and below average for the bad ones. Everybody, at once, expected to be luckier than everybody.

Core line: "If you escalate, you are asking him to accept that he is not the careful person he believes he is, and he will defend that before he defends the furnace."

Give Us A Shout

Thanks for tuning in to Hartzell's Heat & Air, HVAC in Kingfisher and central Oklahoma. From Kingfisher to coast-to-coast consulting, we design, install, and maintain smart, efficient systems that deliver year-round comfort.

We're family-run and powered by 47 years of experience. Whether it's AI-powered thermostats, geothermal systems, or classic tune-ups, we deliver upfront pricing, expert care, and warranties that back it all up.

🛠️ Book Online:
https://book.housecallpro.com/book/Hartzells-Heat--Air/4a569038b3dc460daf2d5f6497b18351?v2=true
🌐 www.hartzellsheatair.com
📞 (405) 375-4822

🚛 Trane Comfort Specialist • Mitsubishi Diamond Dealer • ClimateMaster Elite
🛡️ VIP Comfort Club • Remote Monitoring • Extended Warranties

📲 Follow us for tips, updates, and real-world installs:
YouTube: @hartzellsheatair6003
X: https://x.com/HartzellsHVAC
Facebook: facebook.com/hartzellsheatair
LinkedIn: Dave Hartzell

Built on trust. Backed by warranty. Designed for comfort.