Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican Senate primary runoff Tuesday night by sixteen points, a Texas-sized message to Washington, as he put it, that the establishment wing of his party no longer commands the votes it once did. The celebration lasted about an hour. The hard math began at sunrise.

Paxton's general election opponent, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, raised more than $27 million in the first three months of 2026. Paxton raised $2.2 million in the same window. Talarico already leads Paxton by seven to eight points in head-to-head polling conducted by the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project. Among Black voters, Talarico's margin against Paxton sits at 56 points. Among Latino voters, 27. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but for the first time in three decades, the party believes the door is cracked open.

The race will not be decided by Paxton's record, which is formidable, or by the impeachment circus of 2023, which Texans already rejected. It will be decided by whether Paxton can fill in the blanks on his opponent before Talarico's donor army does it for him.

Most Texans have not met James Talarico yet. They will meet him on television in July, August, September, and October, on someone's terms. Paxton's only job between now and Labor Day is to make sure the Talarico voters see is the real one.

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