The Australian property market is entering an interesting period. While some weekly indicators are showing signs of improvement, the broader pressures on buyers, sellers and investors haven't necessarily gone away.

In this week's episode of The Orchard View, I look beyond the headline property statistics and explore what I believe could be a convergence of pressures across the Australian housing and lending markets.

Auction activity has improved slightly, but volumes remain significantly lower than a year ago. Property values have adjusted in some major markets, listings remain elevated, and affordability continues to challenge buyers despite those price reductions.

But there's a bigger picture developing.

Interest rates, cumulative household expenses, changing investment incentives and borrowing capacity are all influencing the way people approach property. We're also seeing mortgage arrears attract increasing attention, raising questions about seller urgency and how lenders might respond if financial pressures continue to build.

From a mortgage broking perspective, I'm also seeing changes in borrowing capacity, available equity and the way clients are approaching their purchasing decisions. These are important considerations that can sometimes get lost when the conversation focuses entirely on property prices.

We also look at the changing investment equation, including rental yields, holding costs, negative gearing changes and whether some investment properties are being brought back to more realistic valuations.

I'm not predicting a property market collapse, but I do think we're potentially entering a period of slower adjustments, with different markets responding in different ways.

The question is whether these pressures eventually translate into a more sustained period of declining values, or whether the market finds a new level and begins to plateau.

In this episode:

• Why improved auction results don't necessarily mean market pressures have eased

• Interest rates, household expenses and the cumulative impact on affordability

• Why a 5–10% property price reduction doesn't automatically make housing affordable

• Markets within markets: why Sydney and Melbourne are behaving differently to Adelaide and Perth

• Investors, negative gearing changes and the changing economics of property ownership

• Rental yields, vacancy rates and increasing property holding costs

• Mortgage arrears, seller urgency and the potential for further market adjustments

• Whether lenders and APRA could respond with tighter lending policies

• Why the next phase of the property market might be a slow grind rather than a dramatic correction

Read the full weekly property market report, including the PDF and infographic:

https://orchardlending.com.au/2026/11/10/australian-property-market-update-week-ending-8-november-2026/

The Orchard View
Property • Finance • Economy

Presented by Kevin Orchard, Director and Finance Broker at Orchard Lending.

https://orchardlending.com.au/

Australia's property market is experiencing a significant downturn, with falling values, weaker sales and buyers becoming increasingly reluctant to jump into the market. But does a sharp correction automatically mean we're heading towards a housing crisis?

In this episode, I look at the latest Cotality figures, including seven consecutive monthly declines in national dwelling values and the remarkably fast pace of the current downturn compared with previous market corrections.

We explore the apparent contradiction between falling property prices and Australia's ongoing housing shortage, why affordability and borrowing capacity are weighing on buyers, and how sellers are beginning to adjust their expectations.

I also look at the distinction between falling property values and genuine mortgage stress. While some households are undoubtedly under pressure, the latest Reserve Bank figures provide a more measured picture of overall borrower resilience.

So, is the housing market actually on fire, or are we witnessing a necessary market correction? Perhaps grab a few marshmallows, but keep the fire blanket somewhere close.

In this episode:

• How quickly Australian property values are falling

• Why housing shortages aren't necessarily supporting prices

• Buyers, sellers and the changing balance of negotiating power

• Mortgage stress and what the RBA's figures actually tell us

• What to watch as we head towards the end of 2026

Read the full article:
https://orchardlending.com.au/2026/11/01/australias-housing-downturn-is-accelerating-that-doesnt-yet-make-it-a-housing-crisis/

The Orchard View | Property • Finance • Economy

Presented by Kevin Orchard, Orchard Lending.
https://orchardlending.com.au/

The latest Australian property market update looks at the week ending 25 October 2026.

Auction activity picked up, but clearance rates remain subdued, while property values, listings and rental conditions continue to tell a mixed story across the country. We take a look at what's happening, where the market is showing resilience, and what buyers, sellers and investors should be keeping an eye on.

Read the full report:
https://orchardlending.com.au/2026/10/26/australian-property-market-update-week-ending-25-october-2026/

The Orchard View | Property • Finance • Economy
Presented by Kevin Orchard, Orchard Lending.

It might sound strange to talk about an affordability ceiling while rental properties remain in short supply, but that's exactly what makes the current market so interesting.

Rents have increased far faster than household incomes since the pandemic, and tenants are increasingly being forced to make changes, whether that's moving further from the city, choosing a smaller property, sharing with others or simply looking for better value.

The rental shortage hasn't gone away, but the tenant's wallet is becoming an increasingly important part of the equation.

So are Australian rents approaching the point where affordability starts to slow the market?

I've looked at the numbers and what this could mean for the rental market and property investors.

Read the full article:
https://orchardlending.com.au/2026/09/12/australian-rents-affordability-ceiling/

From 1 July 2027, the Government will introduce a fundamental tightening of negative gearing for residential property. The reform pivots decisively toward boosting housing supply: only "new builds" will retain the ability to offset rental losses against salary and wage income.

Importantly, the policy does not abolish deductions for established properties. Instead, it ring‑fences them. For an investor like Yoonseo, who purchases an existing dwelling after the May 2026 announcement, rental losses can no longer reduce tax on her $100,000 salary. Those losses remain deductible, but only in the future — against rental profits or the eventual capital gain. The tax benefit is preserved in value but deferred in timing, which is the key liquidity impact for investors.

To qualify as a new build and retain immediate salary‑offsetting benefits, a property must genuinely add to supply. Under the Budget's criteria:

• Eligible: Homes constructed on vacant land; a duplex replacing a single dwelling.

• Ineligible: Knock‑down rebuilds that do not increase dwelling count; substantial renovations; secondary dwellings such as granny flats attached to existing homes.

As the Budget papers highlight, current settings can encourage leveraged investment strategies that deliver greater tax advantages to investors than to owner‑occupiers. By narrowing these advantages for established properties, the Government aims to reduce investor competition for the same stock sought by first‑home buyers and redirect capital toward new housing supply.

Book a session to find out more - https://orchardlending.com.au/contact-us/

The Albanese government has announced major tax reforms in the 2026 federal budget, breaking its election promise not to touch negative gearing or capital gains tax. From budget night, negative gearing will only apply to newly built investment properties, ending the long‑standing ability for investors to deduct losses on established homes. The government argues this shift will rebalance the housing market toward first‑home buyers, with Treasury estimating 75,000 investor‑owned properties will move to owner‑occupiers over a decade, though it will also reduce new housing supply by about 35,000 dwellings.

Capital gains tax rules will also be overhauled from July 2027. The current 50% CGT discount will be replaced with a system that taxes only gains above inflation, paired with a new minimum 30% tax rate on capital gains to prevent high‑income earners from reducing their tax burden through timing or trust structures. Existing assets will be grandfathered into the old system for gains accrued before 2027, while gains after that date will fall under the new rules. Pensioners and income‑support recipients will be exempt from the minimum rate.

The budget also introduces a minimum 30% tax on discretionary family trusts from 2028, closing what the government describes as a loophole used disproportionately by high‑wealth households. While the opposition argues the changes will worsen housing shortages and raise rents, the government says its broader housing package—including $2 billion for enabling infrastructure and an extended ban on foreign buyers—will offset supply impacts and add a net 30,000 homes over four years. Over a decade, the tax changes are expected to raise $77.2 billion in revenue, even as the government acknowledges the political cost of breaking another tax promise.

Read more by following us here - Australia Budget Property Tax Changes

The Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.35%, its highest level in more than a year. This is the third straight increase in 2026, reflecting the RBA's push to rein in persistent inflation and temper wage pressures. The move follows continued signs of rising prices at home and abroad, along with stronger-than-expected household spending. More information about RBA Rate Hikes Here .

Australia's housing market is still ticking higher, just not quite as fast as it was a few months ago. According to Cotality's latest Home Value Index, national home values rose 1.0% in November 2025, the third month in a row of 1%-plus growth.

If you'd like to understand what these shifts mean for your borrowing power – whether you're looking to buy, refinance or invest – a quick chat can go a long way. You bring your goals. We'll bring the numbers and translate them into plain English.

Mortgage and Finance Brokers