エピソード

  • The Physical Premium
    2026/07/11

    The price of aluminum you see quoted isn't the price almost anyone actually pays. The gap is called the physical premium — and in the U.S. in 2026 it's grown to more than 40% of the all-in cost of metal, a record. In this short, single-idea episode of The Metalist, host Gus Gardner breaks down what the premium is, what's inside it (freight, financing, regional supply and demand, and duties), and why a 50% Section 232 tariff has pushed the U.S. Midwest Premium to all-time highs and decoupled the American market from the rest of the world. By the end you'll know why the premium — not the headline price — is the truest read on whether metal is physically tight.

    FURTHER READING / SOURCES (public)

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    - CME Group — Hedging regional aluminum premiums: https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2025/aluminum-premiums-2025.html

    - S&P Global Platts — US Aluminum Transaction price explained: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/pricing-benchmarks/assessments/metals/us-aluminum-transaction-price-explained

    - White & Case — US modifies Section 232 aluminum/steel/copper tariffs (2026): https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-modifies-steel-aluminum-and-copper-section-232-tariffs

    - Fastmarkets — Aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs duty-paid Rotterdam: https://www.fastmarkets.com/commodity-prices/aluminium-p1020a-premium-in-whs-dp-rotterdam-dollar-tonne-mb-al-0004/

    - LME — Aluminium premiums: https://www.lme.com/metals/non-ferrous/lme-aluminium-premiums



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    11 分
  • Inside the LME Warehouse System — How to Read Metal Trade Flows for Free
    2026/06/16

    Every business day, a free report comes out that smart-money metal traders watch closely — and almost nobody else knows exists. In Episode 2 of The Metalist, host Gus Gardner takes you inside the LME warehouse system: the global network of approved warehouses, what a "warrant" actually is, and why "cancelled warrants" are the signal everyone watches. You'll learn to read the daily stock report to understand where the world's metal is really moving — plus the wild story of the Detroit aluminum queue, and why a big inventory number doesn't always mean metal you can get.

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    17 分
  • The Big Macro Update
    2026/06/10

    In the very first episode of The Metalist, host Gus Gardner unpacks the biggest takeaways from a major aluminum industry summit — and makes the case that metal is in the middle of its most interesting stretch in forty years. A bull market that snuck up on almost everyone. A supply shock traced back to a single stretch of water most people never think about. And a quiet revolution where scrap — the stuff we used to call garbage — became the real "green" play and a raw material countries now fight over. No metallurgy degree required. Just a curiosity about how the world actually gets built.

    "In this episode" list:

    • Why metal deserves a show — and what The Metalist will cover
    • The bull market that caught the industry off guard
    • The Strait of Hormuz: how one chokepoint rippled across global supply
    • Scrap is the new green: why recycling beat the moonshot smelters
    • How tariffs redrew the North American map
    • What aluminum actually becomes — billet, castings, and the grid
    • Europe's "leaking bucket" problem
    • The outlook, and a teaser for episode two
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    18 分