Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.

The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle.

00:00 – Intro & market setup

03:00 – Freight costs jump

07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing

12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay

18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing)

26:00 – Second‑half market outlook

31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market

38:00 – Futures & trade ideas

41:00 – OSB and other materials

Guest

Sig Thoma

Sig@XMICO.com

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.

Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.

So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?

In this episode, the guys debate:

Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing

Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada

Southern Pine regional price spreads

What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory

Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does

Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules

Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?

Strap in.

Timestamps

00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins

02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect

04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments

10:00 – Southern Pine update

18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion

24:00 – Trading range debate

36:00 – Why mills keep running

42:00 – Tariff clarification

Guest:

Kip Foteringham

Independent Trader and Market Analyst

kipf@telus.net

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time? If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market.

0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market

1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs

6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring

12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing

16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics

20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength

24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying

27:00 – Lumber price outlook

30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand

33:00 – Western supply shifts

36:30 – Final market takeaways

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market. Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium? Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian shipments are down sharply year over year, and when you combine that with slightly softer housing starts, supply and demand may be closer than most think. We also dig into the flattening futures curve, what that means for hedgers, whether Southern Pine mills are actually making money, and why a flat market might cause the most pain. If you trade lumber, build with it, or hedge it — this one matters.

• 00:00 – Market pulse: Spruce, Pine & truck spreads
• 06:30 – Southern Pine block buying & 16’ pricing
• 10:00 – Europe shipments, tariffs & rising log costs
• 17:30 – Western market: low-grade squeeze
• 21:30 – Housing starts & real wood usage math
• 27:00 – Canadian shipment declines
• 31:00 – Futures flattening: what it means
• 35:30 – Mill closures & Southern Pine profitability
• 40:00 – Softwood Lumber Board & CLT demand growth
• 45:00 – Tariff ruling update & market outlook

Advertiser:

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Product

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Guest: Thomas Mende

Thomas.Mende@binderholz.com

https://www.binderholz.com/

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Is the lumber market quiet… or is it weak? That’s the debate this week on The Lumber Word Podcast. Charles breaks down how SYP is trading — some items are moving, but others are dug in tight. Matt walks through what he’s seeing in Texas as activity starts to open up, and why low-grade SPF is creeping closer to #2 in ways that matter. Gregg zooms out to the macro, unpacking monetary supply and asking the big question: what kind of price move would hurt the most people the most? Ashley connects the dots on what he knows is happening in real-time supply and demand. Did we leave the studio sucking our thumbs… or bulled up and ready?

Crush the follow button and find out.

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Senior Economist Dustin Jalbert from Fastmarkets is back, and that means it’s time to stress-test the lumber market. We dig into real supply and demand, where we are in the cycle, and what buyers and sellers are actually saying. Were we too bullish the past few weeks? Will the cost of production finally pull capacity, or do higher prices today just set up lower prices tomorrow? Tune in and recalibrate your lumber compass.

Advertiser and Guest

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Two familiar faces are back as Bart Charles and Matt Layman join us to break down a lumber market that just won’t quit. Prices across all species are climbing the classic wall of worry—up nearly $100/MBF in the last two months and still catching a bid. With big multifamily jobbers caught short and orders leaking back in, is an $800/MBF print really in play? Take a breather, hit play, and hear what we think—most listeners walk away a lot smarter and entertained.

Advertisers:

Fastmarkets Random Lengths

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Advertiser and Guest

Layman’s Lumber Guide

www.laymansguide.com

Matt@laymansguide.com

Guest

Bart Charles

Atlantic Forest Products

charles@atlanticforest.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market keeps showing strength across all species. Gregg and Matt discuss longer-term multifamily projects starting to appear, while Charles breaks down how Southern Pine strength has evolved. We’re seeing tight availability, trucks being chased after purchase, and the same quotes coming back days later — classic up-market signals that surprised many. How long does it last? Tune in to find out.

Fastmarkets Random Lengths

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Lumberhub.net

George@Lumberhub.net

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com