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  • EP 167: Is Lumber Quietly Setting Up for Another Bull Run?
    2026/05/07

    This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?

    Timeline

    0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active

    3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species

    6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy

    10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish

    15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply

    20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate

    27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business

    33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

    ne of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?

    Timeline

    0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active

    3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species

    6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy

    10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish

    15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply

    20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate

    27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business

    33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    57 分
  • EP 166: Is Freight the Real Lumber Market Right Now?
    2026/04/30

    This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price.

    Timeline (Condensed)

    0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset

    2:00 – Pine Selloff = Freight Story: Prices down, driven by trucking costs

    5:00 – Cash vs Futures Disconnect: Strong Western pricing vs discounted board

    10:00 – Supply Constraints: Euro down, Canada tight, limited new supply

    15:00 – Housing Demand: Flat overall, multifamily supporting pine

    20:00 – Fragmented Market: Regional “islands,” no easy arbitrage

    25:00 – Relative Value Trades: 2x6 vs 2x4 spread, board looks cheap

    30:00 – Buyer Behavior Shift: Late buying driving higher freight

    35:00 – Key Takeaway Trades: Futures and select items show opportunity

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    51 分
  • EP 165: Spring-time Round Up
    2026/04/17
    Summary

    Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market. Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check. The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher?

    Timeline

    0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility

    2:00 – Truck vs rail market split

    4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy

    6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply

    8:00 – Euro supply dropping off

    12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown

    15:00 – Mills still losing money

    18:00 – Logistics driving everything

    25:00 – Macro + economy check

    27:00 – SYP gaining market share

    38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter)

    46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors

    Guest

    Kip Fotheringham

    kip@telus.net

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    52 分
  • EP 164: The K-Shaped Economy—Who’s Pulling the Wagon?
    2026/04/09

    Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction. The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts. They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy. If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers.

    Timeline

    00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup 03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts 08:30 – Government spending vs affordability 14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook 16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues 18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand 24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained 30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class 41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks

    Guest

    Brian S. Wesbury

    Chief Economist / First Trust

    www.ftportfolios.com

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    58 分
  • EP 163: Paywalls, Pine Rips, and Freight Freakouts
    2026/04/03

    Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first! The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think.

    Timestamps:

    0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel)

    4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon

    9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins

    13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market

    14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard

    20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery?

    29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine)

    33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate

    35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top

    40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast

    Takeaway:

    Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset.

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    54 分
  • EP 162: Is Lumber Having Its WTF Moment?
    2026/03/28

    Mike Logelin (Gulf Coast Shelter) is back and breaking down what it really looks like to build a lumber business from the ground up—team building, growing pains, and why patience matters in today’s market. Then the crew dives headfirst into one of the most dynamic setups we’ve seen in a while: tightening supply, exploding low-grade pricing, and a freight market that’s turning everything upside down. From Southern Yellow Pine ripping higher to spruce and hem-fir tightening fast, this episode connects the dots between species spreads, trucking chaos, and why the next “panic buy” moment might be closer than you think. If you want to understand what’s actually driving this market—and where the opportunity (and risk) is—this one delivers.

    Timestamps

    0:00 – Intro + Mike Logan returns

    1:00 – Building a trading team from scratch (startup realities)

    5:00 – Hiring, training, and the next generation in lumber

    7:45 – Market kickoff: everything moving higher

    9:00 – Texas demand, low inventories, and species substitution

    12:00 – Low-grade explosion (why #3 is driving the bus)

    16:00 – Hem-fir + western market tightness

    17:45 – Southern Yellow Pine surge + short positions

    19:30 – Freight chaos: trucks disappearing, costs spiking

    23:00 – Why logistics = real pricing power right now

    27:00 – Regional markets tightening due to freight

    29:00 – When does the “panic buying” moment hit?

    30:30 – Global flows (Euro, Middle East disruption)

    33:30 – Macro curveballs: rates, crypto, housing demand

    36:30 – Inventory positioning: who’s exposed right now

    Guest

    Mike Logelin

    President-Gulf Coast Shelter

    mlogelin@gulfcoastshelter.com

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    59 分
  • EP 161: Miss It Today, Pay Up Tomorrow
    2026/03/19

    The lumber market just flipped. What looked slow turned into real buying, tightening supply, and rising prices—fast. This week, the crew breaks down why low-grade and studs are leading, freight is becoming a major constraint, and order files are pushing into April. Buyers who waited are now chasing, while supply cuts and steady demand raise a bigger question: are we already short of wood? If so, this move may just be getting started.

    Timeline

    0:00 – Market flips from slow to active

    2:30 – Low-grade & studs lead strength

    7:00 – Prices up ~$100+ since Nov

    10:00 – Order files into April

    12:00 – Freight tightening supply

    15:00 – Buyers now chasing

    28:00 – Supply vs demand imbalance

    35:00 – Early innings of the move

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    1 時間 2 分
  • EP 160: Freight Shock and the Sneaky Lumber Rally
    2026/03/12

    Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.

    The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle.

    Spotify Timeline (Chapters)

    00:00 – Intro & market setup

    03:00 – Freight costs jump

    07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing

    12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay

    18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing)

    26:00 – Second‑half market outlook

    31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market

    38:00 – Futures & trade ideas

    41:00 – OSB and other materials

    Guest

    Sig Thoma

    Sig@XMICO.com

    Advertiser

    Fastmarkets RISI

    Dustin Jalbert

    Senior Economist Wood Products

    djalbert@fastmarkets.com

    www.fastmarkets.com

    Show Contacts:

    Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

    Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

    Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

    Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

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    52 分