This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down one of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?

0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active

3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species

6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy

10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish

15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply

20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate

27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business

33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

ne of the more confusing lumber markets in recent memory. Despite fears coming out of Montréal, buyers haven’t really changed behavior, trucking is slowly improving, and distributors are still moving wood. The crew dives deep into the widening divide between Southern Pine and Western species, shrinking production, freight chaos, inventory strategy, and whether the market is quietly building the foundation for higher prices later this summer. The big question: are we in equilibrium… or on the verge of another squeeze?

0:00 – 3:00 — Market recap after Montréal, trucking loosens up, buyers still active

3:00 – 6:00 — Southern Pine weakness vs strong 2x6 demand across Western species

6:00 – 10:00 — Inventory turns, mills running less 2x4, and distributors staying busy

10:00 – 15:00 — Housing data surprises to the upside and Gregg explains why he’s leaning bullish

15:00 – 20:00 — Canadian market softness vs tight U.S. Western supply

20:00 – 27:00 — Risk management, shrinking spreads, and why nobody wants to speculate

27:00 – 33:00 — Freight volatility and the challenge of quoting future delivered business

33:00 – 40:00 — Pine finding a bottom, species spreads, and what could trigger the next move higher

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

This week’s episode breaks down a confusing lumber market where price prints don’t reflect reality. Southern Pine appears to be selling off, but much of the move is driven by rising and volatile freight costs rather than true demand weakness. Inventory remains tight in many regions, while buyers hesitate due to bearish sentiment and futures discounts. Meanwhile, multifamily construction continues to support demand, even as overall housing trends flatten. The result is a fragmented, regional “island market” where logistics—not supply—are dictating price.

0:00 – Market Setup: Weak tone on paper, post-Montreal reset

2:00 – Pine Selloff = Freight Story: Prices down, driven by trucking costs

5:00 – Cash vs Futures Disconnect: Strong Western pricing vs discounted board

10:00 – Supply Constraints: Euro down, Canada tight, limited new supply

15:00 – Housing Demand: Flat overall, multifamily supporting pine

20:00 – Fragmented Market: Regional “islands,” no easy arbitrage

25:00 – Relative Value Trades: 2x6 vs 2x4 spread, board looks cheap

30:00 – Buyer Behavior Shift: Late buying driving higher freight

35:00 – Key Takeaway Trades: Futures and select items show opportunity

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market. Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check. The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher?

0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility

2:00 – Truck vs rail market split

4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy

6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply

8:00 – Euro supply dropping off

12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown

15:00 – Mills still losing money

18:00 – Logistics driving everything

25:00 – Macro + economy check

27:00 – SYP gaining market share

38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter)

46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors

Guest

Kip Fotheringham

kip@telus.net

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com