Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.

The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the cycle.

00:00 – Intro & market setup

03:00 – Freight costs jump

07:00 – Pine vs spruce pricing

12:00 – Supply vs willingness to pay

18:00 – Demand drivers (R&R and housing)

26:00 – Second‑half market outlook

31:00 – Buyer strategy in this market

38:00 – Futures & trade ideas

41:00 – OSB and other materials

Guest

Sig Thoma

Sig@XMICO.com

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.

Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.

So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?

In this episode, the guys debate:

Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing

Government “support” vs. subsidy risk in Canada

Southern Pine regional price spreads

What happens if retailers add just 2–3 weeks of inventory

Why breakeven doesn’t matter — return on capital does

Tariff noise vs. actual lumber exemption rules

Is the low already in? Or are we just chopping sideways?

Strap in.

Timestamps

00:00 – Welcome + Kip joins

02:00 – Cash vs. futures disconnect

04:00 – 30% drop in Canadian shipments

10:00 – Southern Pine update

18:30 – Lean inventories & catalyst discussion

24:00 – Trading range debate

36:00 – Why mills keep running

42:00 – Tariff clarification

Guest:

Kip Foteringham

Independent Trader and Market Analyst

kipf@telus.net

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **where is the missing demand?** Canadian shipments are down, production is lower across North America, yet prices haven’t fully reacted. Are buyers simply running leaner inventories and buying lumber just‑in‑time? If you buy, sell, trade, or build with lumber, this episode helps you navigate freight disruptions, changing buying habits, and the real supply‑and‑demand signals shaping the 2026 lumber market.

0:00 – The Fog of War in the lumber market

1:00 – Trucking shortages and rising freight costs

6:30 – Why freight tightens every spring

12:30 – Futures vs. cash lumber pricing

16:00 – Doug Fir, spruce, and pine market dynamics

20:00 – Southern Yellow Pine strength

24:00 – Just‑in‑time lumber buying

27:00 – Lumber price outlook

30:00 – Mortgage rates and housing demand

33:00 – Western supply shifts

36:30 – Final market takeaways

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com